Will Arizona's coaching search wrap soon or drag out? It depends on these four factors

Vacant UA job will be 'open until filled'

With some shuffled papers and a click of state-issued mouse, the University of Arizona accelerated its timeline to hire a new football coach.

The job posting was changed Saturday and will now be “open until filled,” a change from the initial two-week window to submit applications.

If recent history is any indication, Arizona will hire Rich Rodriguez’s replacement by, oh, Jan. 19 at 6 p.m.

The average college football coaching search has taken exactly 16.9 days this hiring season. The moves range from swift — Mississippi State needed just three days to hire Penn State offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead and UCLA took six to hire Chip Kelly — to downright glacial. Tennessee waited 23 painful offseason days before hiring Alabama defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt. The dumpster fire of a process cost the Vols their athletic director, and will be used for years as an example of how not to handle a coaching change.

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UA's search just getting started

Arizona’s coaching search is reaching its sixth day since Rodriguez was fired amid accusations that he ran a hostile workplace and sexually harassed his former administrative assistant.

How much longer will Wildcats fans have to wait for his replacement? It depends on a few factors:

1. The decider

1. The decider. Every athletic director has a “short list” of replacements for their major coaches, whether it’s in writing or in his own head. But how long has first-year AD Dave Heeke been serious about hiring a coach? UA officials say Heeke decided to fire Rodriguez before Dec. 28, when an internal review into the coach's behavior found that there wasn’t enough to terminate him for cause. (Heeke bit the bullet anyway, paying RichRod $6.2 million to go away).

But when, exactly, did Heeke decide to move on? Heeke allowed Rodriguez to hire offensive line coach Garin Justice on Dec. 19, and the UA announced an early signing class a day later. Rodriguez coached the Wildcats in the Dec. 27 Foster Farms Bowl, and was working on behalf of the UA up until the evening of his firing. Heeke has been silent since Tuesday, when he and UA president Robert C. Robbins issued a joint statement explaining their decision to fire the sixth-year coach.

2. The search firm

2. The search firm. The UA has hired DHR International, a corporate search firm, to help find its next coach. DHR boasts a 12-week “search life cycle” for corporate hires, but its football selections generally move much faster. DHR managing partner Glenn Sugiyama helped Arkansas land SMU’s Chad Morris 12 days after Bret Bielema was fired. Sugiyama also represented Oregon State when it hired Jonathan Smith to replace Gary Andersen. Smith was hired four days after the Beavers' season-ending loss to Oregon — and 51 days after Andersen quit on his team midseason.

DHR’s past hires offer little clue as to how long the process might last. Toledo’s Jason Candle was hired three days after the Rockets’ previous coach left, while Purdue’s Jeff Brohm, Florida International’s Lane Kiffin and North Texas’ Seth Littrell all replaced coaches who were fired midseason. DHR took months to identify and hire those three coaches.

3. The candidates

3. The candidates. Hiring a football coach can be a complicated, sticky process. Identifying and interviewing a sitting head coach — and then buying him out — requires days of negotiations, sensitivity and privacy. "Hot" assistants are often recruiting on behalf of one university while negotiating with another.

An unemployed coach, meanwhile, can sign — and start — right away. Former Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin is interested in replacing Rodriguez. He could, in theory, be hired more quickly than Toledo’s Candle, who signed a six-year extension with a $450,00 buyout clause three weeks ago. Arizona’s timeline could draw out further if Heeke wants to hire an NFL assistant, like Philadelphia Eagles special teams coach and UA grad Dave Fipp. Many NFL assistants wait until after the playoffs to leave, and the Eagles don’t play their first postseason game until next week.

4 The fit

4. The fit. Heeke and Robbins took a bold tone when they fired Rodriguez, declaring that it was “a day on which we reaffirm our commitment to our values — and ourselves.” Arizona’s next coach, they said, “will take us to great heights with men and women of character and talent, on and off the field.”

Put simply, the bosses want a better fit for Arizona. Heeke and Robbins would be wise to look to Oregon State, which endured its own mini-scandal this season only to emerge in a better place. Andersen walked away from his team (and a lucrative buyout) in the middle of the Beavers’ dreadful season, blasting his assistants on the way out. OSU hired Smith, Washington’s offensive coordinator and a former Beavers quarterback, despite pleas from current players to keep interim coach Cory Hall. The young coach has since surrounded himself with veteran assistants. Among them: Former OSU and Nebraska boss Mike Riley and ex-UA offensive line coach Jim Michalczik.

Sugiyama, from the search firm, said fit was especially important in the “unique campus community like Corvallis, Oregon.”

Sounds a lot like Tucson.