Reaction to Pac-12 developments on the field, and off this past week …
1. Big week for the South
We’re being a bit loose with the timeframe. The first in a series of events that will shape the division unfolded on Jan. 6, over a week ago.
That’s when Utah tailback Tavion Thomas announced his return for next season, a modest surprise that instantly solidified the Utes as the division frontrunner.
Our timeframe includes a series of notable developments in Westwood, where UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and tailback Zach Charbonnet announced they would return for ’22; where defensive coordinator Jerry Azzinaro is expected to resign (per published reports); and where coach Chip Kelly agreed to a contract extension.
The return of two key playmakers, the chance to revamp the defensive leadership and the stability at the top of the org chart all improve UCLA’s prospects for next season.
Our timeframe also includes the news that former Washington State quarterback Jayden de Laura has transferred to Arizona, where the Pac-12’s Offensive Freshman of the Year will compete for the starting job and, most likely, supercharge Arizona’s efficiency at the most important position.
(If de Laura doesn’t win the starting job, then one of the returnees will have outplayed him — and that’s also good news for the Wildcats.)
The division’s big week ended Saturday when Mario Williams, one of the best young receivers in the country, announced he was transferring from Oklahoma to USC.
For all the help Williams will provide on the field in the fall, his immediate contribution takes the form of buzz: Other potential transfers assuredly will give more thought to joining USC now that Williams has done it.
Former Sooners quarterback Caleb Williams sits atop that list but is hardly the only elite talent likely to give the Trojans strong consideration in the wake of Mario Williams’ decision. (They are not related.)
So there you have it: Utah, UCLA, Arizona and USC all got better in the past 10 days.
2. Unreal uptick in Tucson
Arizona’s roster overhaul runs much deeper than de Laura alone.
In addition to a recruiting class that features a slew of four-star players, the Wildcats are adding linebacker Anthony Solomon from Michigan, receiver Jacob Cowing from UTEP and offensive tackle Jack Buford from New Mexico. All three are likely rotation players.
(Other transfers could make instant impacts, as well. If there’s one thing the Wildcats can offer, it’s immediate playing time.)
Arizona’s recruiting success exceeds its on-field performance to a degree that we cannot recall ever witnessing. A one-win team with a top-20 recruiting class and a bevy of quality transfers — it’s a remarkable turnaround.
The Wildcats have improved their talent at the skill positions enough to climb out of the bottom of the division. Whether they move within sight of the top tier in the South next season depends on upgrades at the line of scrimmage.
None of the four-star prospects at the heart of the nation’s 20th-ranked recruiting class are linemen.
That’s the next step for Jedd Fisch and his program.
Of course, it’s the next step for most programs in the conference.
3. The Riley factor
USC spent about $100 million on Lincoln Riley.
How’s that return on investment so far?
Since arriving in late November, Riley has secured the No. 2 cornerback prospect in the country (Domani Jackson), the No. 2 tailback in the country (Raleek Brown), the No. 6 safety (Zion Branch), the No. 11 receiver (C.J. Williams) plus two starting-caliber transfer receivers in Williams (from Oklahoma) and Terrell Bynum (from Washington).
And there are undoubtedly more top talents on the way. Such is the nature of recruiting: Elite coaches attract talent, and talent generates buzz, and buzz helps attract more talent.
The Trojans are light on the lines of scrimmage, but if they find a quarterback — either Caleb Williams or Plan B — and can sprinkle in a few more transfers for the trenches, a run at the South title is feasible.
4. Clarity in Westwood
On Friday, UCLA announced a four-year contract for Chip Kelly — the season that remained on his original deal plus three more. He’s signed through the 2025 season.
According to a source, the deal is worth an average of $4.7 million annually over the contract term.
That’s an interesting number, because Kelly earned $5.6 million this season. Granted, the average salary and a single-year salary can be very different. But an average of $4.7 million suggests the Bruins were able to keep some control of the negotiations with super agent Jimmy Sexton.
Of course, we don’t know how much is guaranteed over the course of the deal, and we don’t know the buyout terms. From our vantage point, that’s the key piece.
Kelly has posted one winning season in his four years. It’s not unreasonable to envision a scenario in which momentum stalls in ’22 and the Bruins regress in ’23. If that’s the case, how much would it cost a cash-strapped athletic department to make a change?
We await the public release of his contract.
5. Meanwhile, in Boulder and Tempe …
Our breakdown of developments in the South has focused on four schools. What about Colorado and Arizona State?
We haven’t seen evidence that either program can hold its position in the division, at least not yet.
Colorado is worse relative to the competition after losing receiver Brenden Rice, tailback Jarek Broussard and safety Christian Gonzalez to the transfer portal, plus linebacker Carson Wells to the NFL Draft.
And we’d argue that Arizona State has lost ground, as well, with more playmakers leaving the program than entering.
Gone are tailbacks Rachaad White and Chip Trayanum, along with receiver Johnny Wilson — the former to the NFL, the latter two to the transfer portal.
And there are significant losses to expired eligibility, as well.
The Sun Devils have time for a course correction, especially if the NCAA’s investigation into recruiting violations resolves quickly.
But at this point, we would not be surprised if Arizona overtook CU and pulled up alongside ASU in the division race next season.
