FPB editors discuss college basketball with former Boston Globe sports editor Joe Sullivan
Let’s Dance.
The NCAA Tournament is closing fast but much is to be decided this week in a conference tournament playground where only a few obvious favorites have emerged.
Outside of Arizona in the Pac-12 and Duke in the ACC, the postseason conference showcases could be marked by underdogs trimming nets.
FrontPageBets breaks down what to expect in the Super Six conference tournaments.
(All odds from DraftKings).
ACC
Winner: Duke (-130 favorite). Duke remains wary of Virginia’s pace and North Carolina proved a defensive-minded game plan can take down the Blue Devils, but there’s no reason to believe Mike Krzyzewski’s team won’t live up to the favorite billing and potentially secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Team to watch: Notre Dame (+1000). The Fighting Irish put together a solid February to move off of the tournament bubble and can stretch it into March, especially if Duke falters early at Barclays Center.
Projected NCAA bids: Duke, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Miami. You might want to read this sentence twice and store it away before you put Duke in your Final Four (+275 odds).
Big East
Winner: Providence (+475). We are guilty of being in the coach Ed Cooley Appreciation Society and stand convinced the Friars are a team to be feared this month, but this tournament could be the most competitive event this side of the Big Ten brouhaha in Indy.
Team to watch: Creighton. The Bluejays are +1200 to win the Big East tournament. They'll meet Marquette (+800) in a 4-5 game. Creighton has a lot to play for, a coach with a proven track record and don’t overlook the six-game streak in February that preceded two losses in the final three regular-season games. You can bet Creighton +425 to miss the NCAA field right now, meaning oddsmakers have the Bluejays in (-600 to be in the field).
Projected NCAA bids: Providence, Villanova, Connecticut, Marquette, Creighton, Seton Hall, Xavier. This comes down to whether Xavier – which had Providence beat before the roof leaked at Dunkin’ Donuts Center, caused a delay and eventually a two-OT loss – or Creighton can find some magic. And then whether the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee sees this as the competitive collection we do.
Big Ten
Winner: Purdue (+220) Arguably seven teams have a legitimate chance to win in Indianapolis this week if you include the March version of Michigan State we’ve come to expect from coach Tom Izzo. Purdue and Illinois are the heavyweights here and a rematch of their epic OT clash in Champaign would be must-see TV. The health of Wooden Award candidate Johnny Davis is vital to No. 2 seed Wisconsin’s chances.
Team to watch: Iowa. Abysmal free-throw shooting Sunday at Illinois cost the Hawkeyes a bye. Iowa is the No. 5 seed in the Big Ten tournament but they’ll be in line for a semifinal berth with two wins – including a shot at Illinois in the ever-dangerous Thursday morning slot (11:30 a.m. ET).
Projected NCAA bids: Michigan, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Illinois, Rutgers, Wisconsin, Purdue.
Big 12
Winner: Baylor (+200). Kansas and Baylor are co-faves for the conference tournament title and there are landmines in this field they haven’t encountered in the past. We’re riding with Scott Drew’s adaptable system and the defending national champs’ commitment to clamp down on D.
Team to watch: Texas Tech. At +340, the Red Raiders aren’t a longshot by any stretch. Defense and half-court execution make them dangerous here and all month long.
Projected NCAA bids: Baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas, Texas, Iowa State. There’s enough quality depth in the Big 12 to warrant a longer invite list, but bubble things happen in March.
SEC
Winner: Auburn (+260). We’re going with the star system here and riding Jabari Smith, a potential top-three pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, but favorite Kentucky (+190) is among five teams we view as having a legitimate chance to snag the trophy.
Team to watch: Arkansas. The Razorbacks are a value play at DraftKings, where the +750 odds to win the tournament are fourth behind Kentucky, Auburn and Tennessee. We nearly suggested LSU but unproven depth in the tournament landscape isn’t a winner. Arkansas is athletic and confident, plus the Razorbacks took down … Kentucky, Auburn and Tennessee in the regular season.
Projected NCAA bids: Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU.
Pac-12
Winner: Arizona (-120). UCLA is dangerous and has tournament credentials, whereas March hasn’t always been primetime for the Wildcats. Different program, from the top down, but this is a two-team tourney. UCLA is +160 at DraftKings to win the Pac-12 tournament, and USC is third at +1000.
Only Gonzaga (-120) has better odds to be in New Orleans for the Final Four than Arizona (+150).
Team to watch: Oregon. The Ducks (+1500) have length and enough shooting to cause Arizona issues and beat UCLA twice. But beating the Bruins Feb. 24 is Dana Altman’s only win since Valentine’s Day, and losing five of six isn’t a great way to ramp into the postseason. An early loss could put Oregon on the NCAA bubble.
Projected NCAA bids: Arizona, UCLA and USC. A Ducks' run could make it four.
North Carolina spoiled Coach K's final Duke home game
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