What does Arizona have to play for in the final month of the season? Start with these 5 things

In the days that immediately followed Arizona’s Dec. 29 decision to self-impose a postseason ban, the Wildcats talked about going all out after the Pac-12 regular-season title.

UA coach Sean Miller said his team would “remain united and aggressively compete” toward that goal, while senior forward Ira Lee said he told his teammates “let’s try to win every dang conference game.”

Barring a run-the-table finish that would include an improbable sweep at UCLA and USC next week plus at least one win over Oregon, the Wildcats don’t really have a chance to win the Pac-12 anymore.

Their losses at Utah and Colorado last weekend left them four losses behind the first-place LA schools in the Pac-12 race, with six or maybe seven games to go (their postponed game at Oregon on Jan. 16 has not been rescheduled).

So what’s left?

Considering the look of the Wildcats’ roster, the obvious goal would be to finish strongly and build momentum for next season — when literally every player will be eligible to return and fans might even be in the stands again.

But this is the fluid world of college basketball, and Arizona has a looming NCAA infractions case that adds even more uncertainty. While the Wildcats are expected to return the vast majority of their roster next season, after losing roughly half of it every spring over the past several years, there’s no telling who will stay or if Miller’s contract will be extended this spring beyond its expiration in 2022.

Even the Wildcats’ fast-rising freshman wing, Bennedict Mathurin, said Tuesday only that he was “focused on finishing the season” when asked if he wanted to return as a sophomore.

So, maybe it’s best for the Wildcats to just consider the now.

To consider, maybe, these five new goals:

1. Learn to play better ‘D’

After losing all five starters, including gifted scorers Zeke Nnaji, Josh Green and Nico Mannion from last season, Miller wondered who would put the ball in the hoop this season.

Instead, the Wildcats have become the rare Miller team that is much more efficient on the offensive end (19th nationally in Kenpom.com ratings) than defense (81st). That’s in part thanks to the fact that UA carefully selects and makes 3-pointers at a 38.0% rate and knows how to get to the line (taking 473 free throws, the third most nationally).

“If you would have asked to me in August, do I think our team would be as efficient offensively as maybe we have been this season? I would have taken that bet,” Miller said. “I would have been worried about scoring. I would have been worried about offensive efficiency, all of the statistical categories that you guys can really bring up right now and say, ‘They’re this nationally, they’re this in the Pac-12.’”

But the Wildcats’ No. 81 ranking in defensive efficiency represents only the second time in the past few seasons that Miller’s team has been more efficient on offense than on defense. The only other UA team in that category in the past eight seasons was the 2017-18 Wildcats, who had Deandre Ayton and Allonzo Trier around to make up for defensive mistakes with their own scoring.

This season, the Wildcats are allowing Pac-12 opponents to shoot 37.7% from 3-point range, the third-worst defensive 3-point percentage in the conference, and their two-point defense has struggled in their last five losses: USC (which shot 59.0% from two), UCLA (50.0), Stanford (52.8), Utah (50.0) and Colorado (56.2).

“Where we’re at right now is, ‘How much better can we get to be able to get those key defensive stops?’” Miller said. “What is it that we can do, maybe better down the stretch on defense, that we just haven’t been able to do to this point? Coupled with, ‘Can we keep our offense where it is and just continue to be very, very efficient?’”

2. Get some individual hardware

While the Wildcats probably can’t win the conference, a strong finish could help elevate several key players into individual honors. Postseason awards are voted on by the league’s 12 head coaches, and they have historically put a high value on how a player’s team fares.

Statistically, UA point guard James Akinjo is on pace to make the league’s 10-player all-conference first team. In conference games, he’s tied for ninth in scoring (14.7), first in assists (6.4), 14th in free-throw percentage (79.7), and sixth in steals (1.5) while averaging the sort of minutes (35.2) that tells you how important he is to his team.

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Meanwhile, Mathurin and Azuolas Tubelis are strong candidates to make the five-player all-freshman team. In Pac-12 games, Tubelis is the league’s top freshman rebounder (6.7) while he’s also the league’s No. 15 scorer (13.6) and Mathurin is averaging 12.2 points while shooting 47.9% from 3-point range.

Miller said center Christian Koloko, who is fourth in blocks during conference play (1.46), also has a shot at making the Pac-12 all-defensive team.

“I do think that we have a number of players, whether it be on the all freshmen team, an all defensive performer like Christian Koloko or an all conference performer like James ... those things will take care of themselves if we perform well down the stretch,” Miller said.

3. Win a big one

The Wildcats have 13 wins, but only one of them — an 88-74 win over Colorado at McKale Center on Dec. 28 – qualifies as a Quadrant 1 victory.

But Arizona will likely have at least two more Quad 1 opportunities next week against UCLA (38th) and USC (16th), since road games against teams ranked 1-75 in the NET are considered Quadrant 1 games, and possibly another if their postponed Jan. 16 game at Oregon (59th) is made up in Eugene.

To Mathurin, beating Oregon State on Thursday and Oregon on Saturday at home could lead to a strong road trip next week.

“We have Oregons this week and our goal is to win both games,” Mathurin said. “I think it is going to help us have the momentum to go to the LA schools.”

4. Be a 'tournament' team

LSU prompted a few eyes to roll around college football when it announced it was self-sanctioning a football team that was 3-5 at the time. While Arizona appeared to be an NCAA Tournament team at the time it made its announcement, having just beaten Colorado, the Wildcats are slipping into territory where they might not have been invited to the postseason, anyway.

Arizona is No. 44 in NET ratings, No. 36 in Kenpom.com and No. 49 in Sagarin, with a 1-3 Quadrant 1 record and 4-6 record against Quadrants 1 and 2 combined.

That’s bubble territory. But the Wildcats have plenty of opportunity to pull themselves squarely in the hypothetical tournament mix with the LA schools ahead and up to two more games left with Oregon, if the Jan. 16 game gets rescheduled.

5. Stay healthy

While college basketball has been forced to postpone and cancel games left and right all season — with ASU taking two COVID-19-related pauses — the Wildcats still have not reported a single coronavirus issue nor taken a pause.

In that sense, they’re undefeated.

While that might indicate some measure of luck, it also speaks to how the Wildcats have managed to handle the near-daily early testing routine and mandates to keep their distance from, well, just about everybody.

The way Miller explained it, their discipline may have carried over on the court.

“One of the keys to our team is we’ve been a very consistent group,” Miller said Saturday in Colorado. “We’ve not been shut down because of COVID. I hope I don’t jinx our team. We can have a problem as soon as this evening or tomorrow

“But you’ve got to give us credit. We’ve been at this for a long time. Our guys have really done a great job. Maybe we’ve been fortunate but the protocols that we’ve had in place, we’ve done that. We’re certainly not a perfect group. We’re very inexperienced, we have a lot of new faces, but we’ve played together.

“We’ve played hard and we’ve played some very good basketball.”