When marquee visitors USC and UCLA come to McKale Center this weekend for what will be the second-to-last time ever in Pac-12 play, the electricity is guaranteed.
A hair-raising finish, however, is not.
Thatβs not the way the Wildcats roll these days.
Arizona (15-3) has played in only two one-possession games all season, using last-second defense to shut down Creighton 81-79 in the Maui Invitational final and Washington in a 70-67 win at McKale Center on Jan. 5. The Wildcats also held firm in a physical, seesaw 75-70 win over Tennessee at McKale on Dec. 17.
In nearly every other game, Arizona has either won really big β¦ or lost really bad.
Only five of UAβs 18 games have been decided by single digits. The Wildcatsβ average victory margin is 16.9 points, and their average losing margin is 15.7.
Theyβre either really on β¦ or really off.
Over the past two weeks, the Wildcats have been much more off on the second game of a weekend, losing to Washington State 74-61 on Jan. 7 and Oregon 87-68 on Jan. 14.
βI felt like these last two Saturdays, for whatever reason, we just got a little bit fatigued in stretches β and certain players more than others,β UA coach Tommy Lloyd said on his weekly radio show Monday. βWeβve got to address that one.β
With the help of UA-provided statistical breakdowns separating the Wildcatsβ wins and losses, itβs fairly easy to identify things that change drastically between them. (Because of the small sample size, the differences in Arizonaβs stats between Thursdays and Saturdays over the past two weeks are comparable to those in Pac-12 wins and Pac-12 losses overall).
Hereβs some of the biggest differences:
Points scored
All wins: 88.8
Pac-12 wins: 76.5
Losses (all Pac-12): 65.0
The overall win stats, especially the overall scoring numbers, can be deceiving because six of Arizonaβs games have been against teams ranked over 200 by Kenpom.
The Wildcats dropped 117 points on Nicholls State in their opener, then went on to beat four other mid- or low-major teams with 93 or more points. Their 101-93 win over Cincinnati in the first round of the Maui Invitational was the only other time they have scored 90 or more points this season.
Slower-paced, more defensive-minded teams have also pulled the Wildcatsβ scoring numbers down in recent weeks. USC and UCLA will likely do the same this weekend.
βI think theyβre opportunistic, and theyβre running, but I think their teams are most comfortable in the half-court offensively,β Lloyd said of the Trojans and Bruins. βSo weβve just got to play the way we play, and itβs not about playing fast to play fast. For us, itβs about trying to get into our flow and get our rhythm going, and we can also do that in a half-court game.β
Field-goal percentage
All wins: 52.4
Pac-12 wins: 43.9
Losses (all Pac-12): 34.8
3-point FG percentage
All wins: 37.9
Pac-12 wins: 29.6
Losses: 21.8
The Wildcatsβ shooting percentages have been down literally player by player in losses, with center Oumar Ballo the most consistent. Ballo shot an absurd 79.4% over three Maui Invitational games. He is shooting 68.1% in wins, 54.1% in Pac-12 wins and 57.6% in UAβs three losses.
FG percentage defense
All wins: 40.3
Pac-12 wins: 40.3
Losses: 45.2
3-point percentage defense
All wins: 31.5
Pac-12 wins: 24.5
Losses: 37.6
In Arizonaβs Pac-12 losses, Utah hit 9 of 25 3-pointers, Washington State hit 12 of 28 3-pointers and Oregon hit 53.1% overall from the floor.
Assist-field goal ratio
All wins: .677
Pac-12 wins: .780
Losses: .594
Since they rely heavily on passing and movement, the Wildcatsβ assist-to-field goal ratio can be a key indicator of how well their offense is functioning. Arizona had only nine assists on 20 made field goals (.450) in their loss to Washington State, and 14 to 24 (.583) against Oregon.
Arizona guard Kerr Kriisa is a different player in wins and losses, making 41.1% of his 3-point attempts in victories and only 16% in defeats.
Kerr Kriisa 3-point percentage
All wins: 41.1
Pac-12 wins: 28.6
Losses: 16.0
Pelle Larsson FG percentage
All wins: 44.1
Pac-12 wins: 32.0
Losses: 23.1
Cedric Henderson scoring average
All wins: 7.9
Pac-12 wins: 6.5
Losses: 2.3
While starting off guard Courtney Ramey hit a shooting slump over the first three post-Christmas Pac-12 games β combining for 4-of-20 shooting against ASU Washington and WSU β some areas of production by Kriisa, Larsson and Henderson have swung more widely between wins and losses.
As the first player off a lean bench, Hendersonβs contributions also can weigh heavily on the Wildcatsβ performance.
McKale Center was built at the University of Arizona in the early 1970s. There have been updates through the years.
