Did the Arizona Wildcats lock up an NCAA Tournament bid when they rallied to defeat then-No. 1 Oregon State on Sunday?
Probably. But not definitely.
The series-clinching victory pushed Arizona’s record in the Pac-12 to 16-11 — guaranteeing an above-.500 regular-season mark in conference play.
Over the past five full seasons, 26 Pac-12 teams have finished over .500 in league play. Twenty-three made the NCAA Tournament.
The three that did not were OSU in 2016, Cal in ’18 and Arizona in ’19. The Beavers and Golden Bears finished 16-14; the ’19 Wildcats were 15-14. (Their Pac-12 home finale against USC was canceled because of inclement weather.)
A 16-14 conference record is a worst-case scenario for the ’22 Cats, who conclude the regular season with a three-game series at Oregon starting Thursday. Arizona has not been swept this season, and its longest losing streak is two games.
Every year is different, of course, and many factors determine who makes the field and who doesn’t. One of them is how many bubble teams “steal” bids by winning their conference tournaments. The Pac-12 is now a participant in that derby; the league will hold a postseason tournament for the first time next week, and the winner will earn an automatic berth.
Arizona is currently in fourth place in the conference. The Wildcats could finish as high as second, although that would require an unlikely sequence of events. They can’t finish lower than fifth.
The most probable outcome is a fourth- or fifth-place finish — and a fourth consecutive game against the Ducks in the conference-tournament opening game at 9 a.m. next Wednesday in Scottsdale. Oregon currently sits in fifth place, one game behind Arizona.
The experts at D1Baseball.com feel confident about the UA’s chances to make the NCAA Tournament field. Wrote co-editor/national writer Aaron Fitt: “The Wildcats were flirting with the at-large bubble after dropping a series to USC last week, but now they’re sitting pretty at 16-11 in the Pac-12 and No. 39 in the RPI.”
Considering that they just handed OSU only its second series defeat of the season — and swept second-place Stanford earlier in the year — it’s fair to wonder: Why aren’t the Wildcats sitting even prettier?
The reason is simple: Arizona went 3-6 against Utah, Washington State and USC — the bottom three teams in the conference standings.
Two of those schools, WSU and USC, have been eliminated from the Pac-12 Tournament, which will feature the top eight finishers in the regular-season standings. Utah and Cal face each other this week, and the winner of the series will secure the final berth in the conference tourney.
Pimental role
Arizona wouldn’t have been able to rally from a 5-1 deficit against OSU on Sunday if the bullpen hadn’t kept the Wildcats within striking distance. Four UA relievers combined to pitch six scoreless innings.
Second-year freshman Javyn Pimental led that charge. The left-hander entered in the fourth inning with a runner on first, nobody out and Arizona trailing 4-1. Pimental yielded a two-out RBI single to Travis Bazzana — who fouled off three pitches and got the hit on the ninth pitch of the at-bat — before retiring the next four Beavers batters.
“Javyn really came in and quieted things down,” UA coach Chip Hale said.
A redshirt freshman from Hawaii, Pimental could play a pivotal role down the stretch — especially with fellow left-hander Holden Christian struggling to throw strikes.
Pimental’s ERA swelled to 6.00 on April 8, when he allowed two runs in two innings at Washington State. At that point, he had issued nine walks in 12 innings.
Since then, Pimental has surrendered three walks in 10 innings. His ERA over that stretch is 2.70.
“Javyn is getting better and better and is (becoming) a guy that we can really trust,” Hale said.
The other relievers who helped secure the victory were Chris Barraza, Trevor Long and Quinn Flanagan. Long had his first “clean” outing since April 28, throwing two scoreless frames. He had allowed 12 earned runs over his previous four appearances, a span of 3 1/3 innings.
Fatigue likely played a role in Long’s slump; he entered that stretch with a 0.70 ERA.
“He’s starting to get his strength back,” Hale said, “and his breaking ball is breaking much better.”
‘Something weird’
A strange situation arose in the bottom of the fourth inning Sunday.
Arizona’s Tanner O’Tremba appeared to strike out on a 1-2 pitch from OSU reliever Mitchell Verburg. But plate umpire Mark Buchanan called a quick pitch on Verburg, giving O’Tremba a reprieve.
Perhaps perturbed by O’Tremba’s reaction to the ruling, Verburg hit O’Tremba with the next pitch. The two then exchanged words as O’Tremba made his way toward first base.
The umpiring crew gathered and issued warnings to both teams — a decision that rankled Hale.
“It’s one of those one of those things where a guy gets hit after something weird happens,” Hale said. “The umpire ruled that he quick-pitched him. That’s up to the home-plate umpire. And maybe the pitcher didn’t like it. I don’t know. But when he hit him like that right after that, it doesn’t look good.
“So then they meet. They decide they’re going to issue warnings. It just frustrates me because we were the team that got hit. If we were to do it later on in the game or even pitch in, we might get a pitcher tossed out of the game.
“I understand what they’re doing. It’s part of the rules. The league really doesn’t want to get into these bean-ball wars.”
No additional batters were hit.
Bingham honored
Center fielder Mac Bingham, one of the heroes of Sunday’s comeback win, has been named Pac-12 Player of the Week.
Bingham went 6 for 14 in the three-game series against the Beavers, including a three-run homer in the fifth inning that trimmed OSU’s lead to 5-4. Arizona subsequently took the lead on Chase Davis’ two-run homer and won 10-5.
Bingham scored two runs in the series and drove in five. He also had a pair of doubles.
Bingham is the third Wildcat to receive Pac-12 Player of the Week honors this season, joining fellow outfielder O’Tremba and catcher Daniel Susac.
Bingham is batting .277 with five home runs and 42 RBIs. He’s hitting .358 in Pac-12 play.
Inside pitch
Arizona is ranked 25th in Baseball America’s Top 25 — the Wildcats’ first appearance in the poll in over a month. Oregon State fell from No. 1 to No. 2, behind Tennessee. Stanford jumped from No. 9 to No. 5 after sweeping Utah in Salt Lake City.
D1Baseball has OSU, Stanford and Texas Tech in its top five. Arizona has a combined record of 6-1 against those teams.
Susac ranks in the top three in the Pac-12 in hits (84), total bases (133), RBIs (52) and batting average (.368). Davis ranks third in home runs (15). O’Tremba is third in on-base percentage (.463). Bingham leads the league in triples (six). Left-hander Garrett Irvin ranks fourth in ERA (2.65).
