The four-team College Football Playoff has been conducted seven times. Some pertinent data:
Alabama and Clemson have participated in six apiece. Ohio State and Oklahoma each have gotten in four times. Alabama (three), Clemson (two) and Ohio State (one) have accounted for all but one champion. LSU, at the end of the 2019 season, was the lone exception.
Will that pattern continue in 2020? Probably. But maybe not.
Georgia, a one-time participant (national runner-up in 2017), might be in a position to break through this season. Of course, the Bulldogs likely would have to beat the Crimson Tide in the SEC title game — or in the CFP — to do it. Alabama has won the past six matchups.
Could another interloper break through? Possibly. In the season of the “super senior,” more teams from college football’s middle class should be in the mix. Iowa State and Cincinnati are two such examples.
How do they all stack up ahead of a season everyone hopes is as “normal” as possible after last year’s COVID chaos? Here’s a look at how Star staff writer Michael Lev voted in the preseason Associated Press Top 25:
1. Clemson
2020 record: 10-2, 8-1 ACC (lost in CFP semifinals)
Coach: Dabo Swinney (14th year)
In a sentence: It seems illogical to rank the Tigers as the preseason No. 1 after they lost No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence ... unless you believe successor DJ Uiagalelei is also a generational talent, which happens to be the opinion here.
2. Georgia
2020 record: 8-2, 7-2 SEC
Coach: Kirby Smart (sixth year)
In a sentence: The Bulldogs were a different team once USC transfer JT Daniels was healthy enough to take over at quarterback, and they/he should be even better after a full, uninterrupted offseason.
3. Alabama
2020 record: 13-0, 10-0 SEC (won national championship)
Coach: Nick Saban (15th year)
In a sentence: The Crimson Tide just keep rolling no matter how many studs they lose to the NFL, but new starting QB Bryce Young — a five-star recruit from Southern California — has to live up to the hype to ensure a return to the CFP.
4. Oklahoma
2020 record: 9-2, 6-2 Big 12
Coach: Lincoln Riley (fifth year)
In a sentence: The offense will be elite again — when has it not been under Riley? — and if the defense can continue to ascend, the Sooners will have a real shot to break the Alabama/Clemson stranglehold on the national championship.
5. Ohio State
2020 record: 7-1, 5-0 Big Ten (lost in CFP final)
Coach: Ryan Day (third year)
In a sentence: Replacing QB Justin Fields won’t be easy, but the Buckeyes are loaded just about everywhere, per usual, and it’ll be an upset if they aren’t at least pushing for a CFP spot at season’s end.
6. Texas A&M
2020 record: 9-1, 8-1 SEC
Coach: Jimbo Fisher (fourth year)
In a sentence: Fisher, Kevin Sumlin’s successor, led the Aggies to their best winning percentage since their Southwest Conference days, and it’s fair to say Texas A&M is the second-best team in the rugged SEC West with LSU coming off a down year.
7. Iowa State
2020 record: 9-3, 8-1 Big 12
Coach: Matt Campbell (sixth year)
In a sentence: With almost everybody back — including veteran QB Brock Purdy and star tailback Breece Hall — this might be the best Iowa State team of all time, but surpassing the Sooners in the Big 12 remains a tall task.
8. North Carolina
2020 record: 8-4, 7-2 ACC
Coach: Mack Brown (third year)
In a sentence: With QB Sam Howell — the possible No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft — entering his third year and Clemson not part of the regular-season slate, the Tar Heels are well positioned to win the ACC Coastal and meet the Tigers for the conference crown.
9. Florida
2020 record: 8-4, 8-2 SEC
Coach: Dan Mullen (fourth year)
In a sentence: The 2020 season did not end well — three consecutive losses, including a 55-20 blowout vs. Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl — but the Gators have ample talent to rebound and at least press Georgia in the SEC East.
10. Cincinnati
2020 record: 9-1, 6-0 AAC
Coach: Luke Fickell (fifth year)
In a sentence: The Bearcats have a CFP-caliber roster featuring a potential first-round QB in Desmond Ridder and a loaded defense, but as a Group of Five school, they’ll have to go unbeaten — including road games against Indiana and Notre Dame — to merit serious consideration.
11. Oregon
2020 record: 4-3, 3-2 Pac-12
Coach: Mario Cristobal (fourth year)
In a sentence: The Ducks should have one of the best defensive fronts in the nation, led by star edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux, but questions at QB and a tough schedule — including road games against Ohio State, Washington and Utah — will keep them (and the Pac-12) out of the CFP mix again.
12. LSU
2020 record: 5-5, 5-5 SEC
Coach: Ed Orgeron (sixth year)
In a sentence: The Tigers followed up their national-title run by going .500, but with a new defensive coordinator (Daronte Jones replaces Bo Pelini, who was an abject disaster in his one season on the job) and ample NFL talent, they should be able to rebound.
13. Wisconsin
2020 record: 4-3, 3-3 Big Ten
Coach: Paul Chryst (seventh year)
In a sentence: One of the programs most impacted by COVID last year, look for the Badgers to return to form and win the Big Ten West despite a rough early schedule (opener vs. Penn State, vs. Notre Dame in Chicago on Sept. 25).
14. Notre Dame
2020 record: 10-2, 9-0 ACC (lost in CFP semifinals)
Coach: Brian Kelly (12th year)
In a sentence: The Fighting Irish have won 10-plus games four years in a row and five of the past six but could struggle to reach that mark in 2021 with an offense that needs to be rebuilt and a schedule that’s littered with potential landmines, including the opener at Florida State and the finale at Stanford.
15. Miami (Fla.)
2020 record: 8-3, 7-2 ACC
Coach: Manny Diaz (third year)
In a sentence: Assuming electric QB D’Eriq King’s knee is a healthy as he says it is, the Hurricanes will battle UNC for the ACC Coastal crown and the right to face Clemson (whom they also don’t meet in the regular season) for the league championship.
16. Utah
2020 record: 3-2, 3-2 Pac-12
Coach: Kyle Whittingham (17th year)
In a sentence: The lines on both sides of the ball should be good again (no surprise); if the Utes can get efficient play from the QB position — whether it’s transfer Charlie Brewer or returnee Cameron Rising — they could push Oregon for Pac-12 supremacy.
17. Washington
2020 record: 3-1, 3-1 Pac-12
Coach: Jimmy Lake (second year)
In a sentence: The Huskies are basically the Utes of the Pac-12 North — tough and physical in all aspects — and might have a higher ceiling in 2021 if, as Lake suggested, star pass rusher Zion Tupuola-Fetui can beat the projected timeline in his recovery from an Achilles’ tear.
18. Penn State
2020 record: 4-5, 4-5 Big Ten
Coach: James Franklin (eighth year)
In a sentence: Injuries and opt-outs decimated the Nittany Lions last season, but they won their final four games after losing their first five and are prime candidates to bounce back; cutting down on turnovers (17 in nine games) is a must.
19. USC
2020 record: 5-1, 5-0 Pac-12
Coach: Clay Helton (seventh year)
In a sentence: The Trojans have stars, including QB Kedon Slovis, WR Drake London and DE Drake Jackson; whether they have enough substance, especially in the trenches, to be legit contenders in the Pac-12 remains to be seen.
20. Texas
2020 record: 7-3, 5-3 Big 12
Coach: Steve Sarkisian (first year)
In a sentence: Sarkisian has resurrected his career after flaming out at USC, but it’s one thing to coordinate an offense blessed with the most talent in the nation; it’s another to lead a blueblood program that has underachieved for the better part of a decade.
21. Indiana
2020 record: 6-2, 6-1 Big Ten
Coach: Tom Allen (fifth year)
In a sentence: Indiana’s breakout last season feels a lot like Minnesota’s from the previous year; can the Hoosiers sustain their success, or will reality hit them the way it did the Golden Gophers in 2020?
22. Iowa
2020 record: 6-2, 6-2 Big Ten
Coach: Kirk Ferentz (23rd year)
In a sentence: This is something of a rebuilding year for the Hawkeyes, but they’ve posted a winning mark of .615 or greater in seven of the past eight seasons, so don’t expect too steep a fall.
23. Louisiana-Lafayette
2020 record: 10-1, 7-1 Sun Belt
Coach: Billy Napier (fourth year)
In a sentence: Almost every starter returns for the Ragin’ Cajuns, whose 10 wins last season included a 17-point victory at Iowa State; their lone loss came by three points against Coastal Carolina.
24. Coastal Carolina
2020 record: 11-1, 8-0 Sun Belt
Coach: Jamey Chadwell (fourth year)
In a sentence: Like ULL, the Chanticleers return the vast majority of their starters from a one-loss team; they include QB Grayson McCall, the preseason Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels leads an Arizona State team that's been dogged by allegations of misconduct and the suspension of multiple assistant coaches.
25. Arizona State
2020 record: 2-2, 2-2 Pac-12
Coach: Herm Edwards (fourth year)
In a sentence: Without question, the Sun Devils have a top-25 roster and the potential to contend for the Pac-12 title; but an NCAA scandal that already has impacted multiple coaches looms over the program, and there’s no telling what effect it’ll have.
