Who are the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament?
We are less than three weeks from Selection Sunday.
There’s no better time for FrontPageBets to take a dive into this year’s bracket as it stands today, and what it might mean if you’re ready to chase a value bet on the NCAA Tournament.
Gonzaga the title favorite (once again)
Gonzaga has yet to win its first national title, but the Bulldogs are the +400 favorite at DraftKings right now for a reason. They’re the unanimous No. 1 in this week’s Associated Press poll, on top of the rankings for the third stint this season. While their West Coast Conference schedule has been a cakewalk for them once again, this team of Drew Timme, Andrew Nembhard and 7-foot freshman Chet Holmgren matched up great against the likes of UCLA, Texas and Texas Tech back in the fall.
No. 1 seeds
The selection committee revealed its initial top-16 seeds on Saturday, and while that recently invented practice serves little purpose other than to fuel discussion of the sport, it can give bettors some early insight.
Gonzaga, Auburn, Arizona and Kansas were the four No. 1 seeds, followed by Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue and Duke penciled in as No. 2s. But Vegas likes Kentucky, which is tied with Arizona (+800) for the second-shortest odds to win the title at DraftKings. The Wildcats and national player of the year candidate Oscar Tshiebwe (16.4 ppg, 15.2 rbg) have held their own against most of the SEC.
Kansas (+1400) has the longest odds of that group of potential No. 1 seeds. The Jayhawks lead a tough-as-nails Big 12 but also took an 80-62 beating at home to Kentucky in late January.
Biggest riser in seeding
Has Memphis (+14000 to win title) turned its season around? Penny Hardaway’s Tigers went through an ugly patch earlier this season, when the coach publicly accused his upperclassmen of selfishness and unwelcoming to freshmen stars like Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren. But a recent six-game winning streak, including a road upset of then-sixth-ranked Houston, has the Tigers back in the picture as a potential No. 10 or 11 seed.
Biggest fallers in seeding
Steer clear of LSU (+9000). The Tigers were dealing with a litany of injuries when they dropped six of seven games between Jan. 15 and Feb. 5, but some of those losses were still inexcusable (Ole Miss, Vanderbilt). After starting the season 15-1, LSU might slip as far down as a No. 6 seed.
Houston (+3500), a No. 2 seed and Final Four team last year, did not appear in the committee’s top 16 reveal, perhaps because of the Cougars’ weak strength of schedule this year. They’ve also lost leading scorer Marcus Sasser and fellow starter Tramon Mark to season-ending injuries, hampering their chances come March.
In danger of missing the Big Dance
Michigan (+10000) is on the brink. Wolverines coach Juwan Howard was suspended for the remaining five games of the regular season after taking a swing at a Wisconsin assistant coach Sunday. Those five games are all tough ones, even though the first four come at home: Rutgers, Illinois, Michigan State, Iowa, Ohio State. Michigan is already viewed as a bubble team, in some experts’ “Last Four In” section, and a rough landing without Howard could spell doom.
You might also see Oregon (+12000) miss the dance. Dana Altman is considered a terrific tournament coach, and once his teams make it, there’s no telling what they might accomplish – his Ducks upset Iowa last year to reach the Sweet 16 as a No. 7 seed. But right now, Oregon has only a NET of 63 and more bad losses (Colorado, Cal, Arizona State twice) than quality wins (UCLA and USC on the road in the first half of January).
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