NFL Week 12 picks and predictions: Loaded up with a full Thanksgiving week slate

Taking nothing away from Christmas, but for football fans, Thanksgiving Day – and week – is truly the most wonderful time of the year.

And the 2023 edition shouldn’t disappoint, as there are three games Thursday and one on Black Friday to go along with a full Sunday slate. Throw in rivalry week for college football … with some pumpkin pie … and we’ve got ourselves five days of serious couch time.

Keeping with tradition, the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys will play home games on Turkey Day. Detroit is a touchdown-plus favorite over the Green Bay Packers, while Dallas is a double-digit favorite over the Washington Commanders. The San Francisco 49ers will play at the Seattle Seahawks in the nightcap as a 6.5-point favorite.

Since 2004, Thanksgiving Day favorites are 46-8 straight up and 36-18 against the spread. Last year, however, favorites went just 1-2 ATS.

Detroit is 37-43-2 all-time on Thanksgiving, while Dallas is 32-22-1.

The Lions haven’t won a Thanksgiving Day game in seven years; however, at 8-2, they are off to their best start since 1962. And because we’re a firm believer in the fact that there are no Thanksgiving Day jinxes, Detroit’s Turkey Day losing streak ends Thursday at Ford Field.

The 7.5-point spread is just the second time this season the Lions have been favored by more than a touchdown – they were 9.5-point favs over Carolina back in Week 5.

This season, Dallas and Detroit are tied for the second-best winning percentage against the spread, going 7-3 (70%).

As an 11-point favorite over the Washington Commanders, this is the Cowboys’ third consecutive game where they are favored by double digits, and the fourth time this season. The only one they didn’t cover was the 11 points against the Cardinals in Week 3. Dallas lost that game, 28-16.

Dallas and Washington have played 10 times on Thanksgiving Day. The Cowboys have won eight of them. Make it nine after Thursday’s game.

And in what we here at FrontPageBets consider the best game of the week between the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) on Sunday afternoon, there are some interesting trends.

The Eagles are the No. 1 team in the NFL in wins (9-1) as well as ATS winning percentage, going 6-6-2 (75%). Philly’s only been an underdog once this season – this past Monday night in a rematch of Super Bowl LVIII against the Kansas City Chiefs at 2.5 points. The Eagles won that game, 21-17.

The Bills are in the bottom six against the spread, with a 4-7 (36.4%) record. And despite being 6-5 straight up, this is only the second game Buffalo has been an underdog.

The Eagles aren’t great at home against the spread, going 2-1-1. But Buffalo hasn’t been any better on the road, going 1-3 ATS.

When in doubt, go with the team that just beat the defending Super Bowl champs.

Now … onto the picks!

(All below odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change)

Thursday, Nov. 23

Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions

• When: 12:30 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: Lions -7.5 (-110); Packers +7.5 (-110)
• Money line: Lions -375; Packers +290
• Over/Under: 47 (-110)
• The pick: Detroit, 24-20

Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

• When: 4:30 p.m.; CBS
• Spread: Cowboys -12.5 (-110); Commanders +12.5 (-110)
• Money line: Cowboys -700; Commanders +500
• Over/Under: 48.5 (-110)
• The pick: Cowboys, 28-21

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

• When: 8:20 p.m.; NBC
• Spread: 49ers -7 (-110); Seahawks +7 (-110)
• Money line: 49ers -350; Seahawks +280
• Over/Under: 44 (-110)
• The pick: 49ers, 31-20

Friday, Nov. 24

Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

• When: 3 p.m.; Prime Video
• Spread: Dolphins -10 (-110); Jets +10 (-110)
• Money line: Dolphins -500; Jets +375
• Over/Under: 41 (-110)
• The pick: Dolphins, 20-9

Sunday, Nov. 26

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New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons

• When: 1 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: Saints -1 (-110); Falcons +1 (-110)
• Money line: Saints -110; Falcons -110
• Over/Under: 41.5 (-110)
• The pick: Saints, 21-17

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals

• When: 1 p.m.; CBS
• Spread: Steelers -1 (-110); Bengals +1 (-110)
• Money line: Steelers -115; Bengals -105
• Over/Under: 34.5 (-110)
• The pick: Bengals, 17-14

Carolina Panthers vs. Tennessee Titans

• When: 1 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: Titans -3.5 (-110); Panthers +3.5 (-110)
• Money line: Titans -190; Panthers +155
• Over/Under: 36.5 (-110)
• The pick: Titans, 24-20

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Indianapolis Colts

• When: 1 p.m.; CBS
• Spread: Colts -2.5 (-110); Buccaneers +2.5 (-110)
• Money line: Colts -135; Buccaneers +115
• Over/Under: 43.5 (-110)
• The pick: Buccaneers, 28-24

New England Patriots vs. New York Giants

• When: 1 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: Patriots -3 (-110); Giants +3 (-110)
• Money line: Patriots -165; Giants +140
• Over/Under: 33.5 (-110)
• The pick: Patriots, 16-15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans

• When: 1 p.m.; CBS
• Spread: Jaguars -1.5 (-110); Texans +1.5 (-110)
• Money line: Jaguars -120; Texans +100
• Over/Under: 48.5 (-110)
• The pick: Texans, 28-27

Cleveland Browns vs. Denver Broncos

• When: 4 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: Broncos -2.5 (-110); Browns +2.5 (-110)
• Money line: Broncos -135; Browns +115
• Over/Under: 35 (-110)
• The pick: Browns, 17-15

Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals

• When: 4 p.m.; FOX
• Spread: Rams -1 (-110); Cardinals +1 (-110)
• Money line: Rams -110; Cardinals -110
• Over/Under: 44.5 (-110)
• The pick: Rams, 30-27

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• When: 4:25 p.m.; CBS
• Spread: Chiefs -9 (-110); Raiders +9 (-110)
• Money line: Chiefs -400; Raiders +310
• Over/Under: 43 (-110)
• The pick: Chiefs, 34-17

Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles

• When: 4:25 p.m.; CBS
• Spread: Eagles -3 (-110); Bills +3 (-110)
• Money line: Eagles -175; Bills +145
• Over/Under: 48.5 (-110)
• The pick: Eagles, 30-24

Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• When: 8:20 p.m.; NBC
• Spread: Ravens -3.5 (-110); Chargers +3.5 (-110)
• Money line: Ravens -175; Chargers +145
• Over/Under: 47 (-110)
• The pick: Ravens, 28-21

Monday, Nov. 27

Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

• When: 8:15 p.m.; ABC/ESPN
• Spread: Vikings -3.5 (-110); Bears +3.5 (-110)
• Money line: Vikings -185; Bears +150
• Over/Under: 43 (-110)
• The pick: Vikings, 24-20

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