In an already crazy tournament, how much madness is left in March?
Remember when the ACC was meek and the Big Ten mighty?
It was only 10 days ago, Selection Sunday, when the merits of the Miami Hurricanes and play-in game participant Notre Dame were debated and largely rejected by pundits.
Some talking heads pushed the rugged Big Ten to the top rung bestowed upon them by the selection committee.
Some of those words look hyperbolic in hindsight, with Miami in the Sweet 16 as a No. 10 seed, where ACC rivals Duke and North Carolina have also advanced.
And popular Final Four pick Iowa (5) has gone home along with Wisconsin (3) and Illinois (4), teams that shared the Big Ten regular-season title. Michigan State (7) was also sent packing – by ACC champion Duke – and the Big Ten has two teams remaining, the same number as the Big East and Pac-12.
The ACC and Big 12 have three apiece.
FrontPageBets takes a look at other trends heading into the Sweet 16.
Spread thin
It might’ve helped a bettor to know Auburn, SEC regular-season champs and a No. 1-ranked team in February, was 6-4 straight up and 2-7-1 against the spread entering the Miami matchup.
ATS performance isn’t a sole indicator of success because of the many variables in play such as location, injuries, line movement and more. Consider Tennessee was 7-4 in 11 games before seeing Michigan, and also 7-4 ATS.
But Texas Tech is a defensive-minded team with no go-to scorer and the Red Raiders aren’t going to run away from teams this late in the draw. They also entered the tournament 5-5 in their past 10 games ATS.
Arkansas is getting 9 points against Gonzaga and pushed (-4) in the first-round win over Vermont. The Razorbacks have been undervalued by the public and are 8-2-1 in their past 11.
Conference alignment
Nobody can pretend to know Iowa State was headed for a Sweet 16 invite when it was one of the final teams on the Big Dance card as an 11 seed, but the Cyclones are showing some tenacity behind hard-nosed guards unafraid of the moment.
The Big 12 features Kansas, the No. 1 seed in the Midwest, and defensive meatgrinder Texas Tech, the No. 3 seed surprisingly favored in the West over Duke.
If you believe history sides against the Cyclones making it all the way to New Orleans, or Miami’s magic is about to run out, you might be right. But also note the Final Four included an 11 seed in 2021 (UCLA), 2018 (Loyola) and 2011 (VCU). Are you listening Michigan fans?
In 2016, 10 seed Michigan State crashed the Final Four.
Other conferences represented in the 2022 Sweet 16: West Coast (Gonzaga), SEC (Arkansas), MAAC (Saint Peter’s) and AAC (Houston).
Empty buckets
Oscar Tshiebwe (Kentucky), Kofi Cockburn (Illinois), Keegan Murray (Iowa) and Johnny Davis (Wisconsin) made up 80% of the All-America team and only Kansas’ Ochai Agbaji is still playing.
Purdue gets Saint Peter’s in the Sweet 16 and Jaden Ivey, a likely NBA lottery pick, has been flexing All-America muscle in the first two rounds. His big shots against Texas pushed the Boilermakers into the regional semifinals.
Ivey is averaging 20 points in the 2022 NCAA Tournament, but Saint Peter’s harassed Kentucky and Murray State guards into mistakes and challenge everything. The Peacocks haven’t seen a player with Ivey’s scorer’s mentality or first step. He has 13 games with 20 or more points this season.
Gonzaga’s Drew Timme kept the Bulldogs afloat with a brilliant second half against Memphis. Timme has 57 points in two tournament games. But for the prop players in the crowd who might consider riding him this week, Timme had three consecutive 20-point efforts only one time this season.
Agbaji, on the other hand, is 10 of 28 from the field with 26 total points in Kansas’ two games. He’s been held under 20 in six of his last eight games.
Sowing seeds
Three No. 4 seeds and three No. 1 seeds are still standing. We know at least one No. 1 seed, and likely more, will make it to Louisiana.
No. 5 Houston continues to thrive without its top two scorers, both lost to injury before midseason, and the Cougars are barely an underdog (-2) against Arizona. The money line is a measly +105 at DraftKings, and the advanced metrics that put Houston as one of the six teams with the best chance to win the national championship in a good spot to upset the No. 1-seeded Wildcats.
The data for No. 4 UCLA isn’t terrible, either, with No. 1 seed Baylor out. The Bruins are trying to get back to the Final Four by eliminating North Carolina, the No. 8 seed in the East. A win puts UCLA up against No. 3 Purdue or Saint Peter’s on Sunday.
UCLA is favored by 2.5 points over UNC.
Will the public trust No. 4 Providence? A mere 2.5-point favorite over 13th-seeded South Dakota State, the Friars buried the Jackrabbits and this Big East brand of defense is thriving at the right time. Still, Providence has given some reason not to buy in – beyond the 30-point shellacking against Creighton in the conference tournament. Providence is 7-5 in its last 12 games ATS but only Miami (+8000), Iowa State (+10000) and Saint Peter’s (+25000) are longer odds than the Friars’ +7000 to win it all.
Providence is also a 7.5-point underdog to No. 1 seed Kansas. Well, the Jayhawks are 18-18 ATS this season and enter off a heartstopper against … common opponent Creighton.
It’s been a minute since a No. 4 seed reached the Final Four. The last time was 2013, when two 4 seeds -- Michigan and Syracuse -- got there. Five-loss Louisville won the tournament and beat Michigan in the final after eliminating Wichita State. The Cardinals’ title was vacated by the NCAA.
In the same tournament, a 15 seed reached the Sweet 16, but Florida Gulf Coast from the Atlantic Sun was stopped by Florida. Also in 2013, No. 1 seed Gonzaga lost in the Round of 32.
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