The Pac-12 is currently projected to receive just three NCAA Tournament men's bids, far fewer than its power-conference peers. While nuanced issues like NIL support, poor recruiting and questionable coaching have contributed to the wobbly collective performance, one explanation is perfectly straightforward: offensive offense.
The conference can't shoot straight (or pass properly or dribble correctly).
We have clear evidence to support that position courtesy of college basketball analytics guru Ken Pomeroy, whose website tracks what's referred to as adjusted offensive efficiency, or total points scored per 100 possessions when factoring for the quality of opponents.
The Hotline examined the number of teams in each power conference that rank in the top 50 nationally in offensive efficiency (as of Monday):
Big Ten: 8
Big 12: 8
SEC: 7
ACC: 6
Big East: 6
Pac-12: 4
Granted, not every Pac-12 team is hard on the eyes and rims alike. Arizona possesses one of the most efficient attacks in the land; Utah rates far above average, as well; Oregon and Colorado are plenty respectable.
But on the whole, skill and efficiency levels in the Pac-12 compare poorly to what's found in other power conferences.
In fact, the Pac-12 also trails its peers if you account for the number of schools in each conference.
Top-50 offenses as a percentage of total members:
Big Ten: 57%
Big 12: 57%
Big East: 55%
SEC: 50%
ACC: 40%
Pac-12: 33%
To those who have watched the Pac-12's offensive offenses since early November, the data should come as no surprise.
To the power ratings ...
1. Oregon (13-3/5-0)
Last week: 2
Results: beat Cal 80-73
NET ranking: No. 57
Next up: at Colorado (Thursday)
Comment: Nothing epitomizes the Pac-12's gloomy forecast for March better than the first-place team carrying a No. 10 seed projection for the NCAAs (via ESPN's Bracketology).
2. Arizona (12-4/3-2)
Last week: 1
Results: lost at WSU 73-70
NET ranking: No. 2
Next up: vs. USC (Wednesday)
Comment: Something to monitor: Forward Keshad Johnson reached double figures in scoring in 10 of 11 nonconference games; since league play began, he has hit the mark just once in five games.
Arizona guard Caleb Love, right, controls the ball while pressured by Washington State guard Myles Rice during the second half. The Cougars won 73-70 to move back to .500 in Pac-12.
3. Utah (12-5/3-3)
Last week: 4
Results: beat UCLA 90-44, lost at Stanford 79-73
NET ranking: No. 24
Next up: vs. Oregon State (Thursday)
Comment: Notably, the Utes have the same position in the NET, which reflects results, as they do in the Pomeroy efficiency ratings, which are predictive in nature β and well regarded by the selection committee.
4. Arizona State (10-6/4-1)
Last week: 3
Results: lost at Washington 82-67
NET ranking: No. 107
Next up: vs. UCLA (Wednesday)
Comment: Not sure we have ever typed this sentence, but here goes: If the Sun Devils don't sweep the Bruins and Trojans this weekend, something has gone very wrong.
5. Washington State (12-5/3-3)
Last week: 9
Results: won at USC 72-64, beat Arizona 73-70
NET ranking: No. 53
Next up: at Stanford (Thursday)
Comment: It took 17 games, but we now believe in the Cougars. And the upcoming schedule offers them a terrific chance to build on the momentum.
6. Colorado (12-5/3-3)
Last week: 5
Results: lost at Cal 82-78, beat USC 68-58
NET ranking: No. 47
Next up: vs. Oregon (Thursday)
Comment: Losing at Cal isn't the ghastly outcome it used to be. But losing at Cal after holding a 19-point lead with 17 minutes left? That's embarrassing.
7. Stanford (9-7/4-2)
Last week: 8
Results: won at OSU 88-84 (OT), beat Utah 79-73
NET ranking: No. 102
Next up: vs. WSU (Thursday)
Comment: Better rack up the wins this weekend. After the Washington schools leave town, so does the Cardinal: Seven of the last 12 are on the road.
8. Washington (10-7/2-4)
Last week: 6
Results: beat ASU 82-67, lost at UCLA 73-61
NET ranking: No. 70
Next up: at Cal (Thursday)
Comment: Easy to forget about Mike Hopkins' crew with everything else happening these days on Montlake β and with the way they have played in recent weeks.
9. Cal (6-11/2-4)
Last week: 10
Results: beat Colorado 82-78, lost at Oregon 80-73
NET ranking: No. 153
Next up: vs. Washington (Thursday)
Comment: This time last year, the Bears were No. 249 in the NET rankings. Impressive work by first-year coach Mark Madsen, no matter what happens the rest of the way.
10. UCLA (7-10/2-4)
Last week: 11
Results: lost at Utah 90-44, beat Washington 73-61
NET ranking: No. 173
Next up: at ASU (Wednesday)
Comment: A few of the 172 teams ranked higher than the Bruins in the NET: Furman, Quinnipiac, Cal Baptist, Radford, Bryant and Longwood. We could go on (and on), but the Hotline is feeling unusually humane today.
11. USC (8-9/2-4)
Last week: 7
Results: lost to WSU 72-64, lost at Colorado 68-58
NET ranking: No. 87
Next up: at Arizona (Wednesday)
Comment: Not on our Pac-12 basketball bingo card for the 2023-24 season: USC being eliminated from an at-large berth to the NCAAs two months before Selection Sunday.
12. Oregon State (9-7/1-4)
Last week: 12
Results: lost to Stanford 88-84 (OT)
NET ranking: No. 176
Next up: at Utah (Wednesday)
Comment: Cal's year-over-year improvement is making OSU's stagnation look more like regression.
