Move from Pac-12 to Big 12 makes Arizona Wildcats an unusual sort of underdog in 2024-25

When it’s empty, the T-Mobile Center of Kansas City can look a lot like the T-Mobile Arena of Las Vegas.

Same dominant elliptical shape, same floor-to-ceiling windows from the concourse looking out on the bars and restaurants below. Same dark gray seat cushions, same portable hockey barriers and, of course, the same pink T-Mobile-ish signage everywhere.

But only the Las Vegas version has been known informally as “McKale North” when the Wildcats are playing, and that’s not the one the Wildcats are going to anymore. Their move to the Big 12 means they’ll end up playing conference tournaments at the T-Mobile Center, before fans that are largely expected to be passionate about other teams.

Well, most of them, anyway.

“It’s a great building,” UA coach Tommy Lloyd said during Big 12 media day at T-Mobile Center last month, recalling a Gonzaga-Kansas State game he worked years ago as a Zags assistant. “It was an incredible atmosphere. I know this place is gonna come rocking.”

Lloyd says he is also sure there would be “a lot of Arizona red and blue” in the arena next March. But even if those fans somehow create a “McKale East” despite the well-established Big 12 Tournament crowds from Iowa State or Kansas around them, there’s also that road the Wildcats must take to just get there.

Instead of making mostly friendly regular-season jaunts up and down the West Coast in the Pac-12, playing road games in places like the Bay Area or Los Angeles that can be light on local support and heavy on Arizona alums, the Wildcats will be venturing into the Big 12’s mostly smaller towns, where supporting the local college team is the thing to do.

“It sounds to me, knowing college basketball the way I do, that most of the road games are gonna have a sold out, excited crowd,” Lloyd said. “To be honest with you, we didn’t get that on a nightly basis in the Pac-12. Some nights in the Pac-12, we’d go and the gym wouldn’t be completely full — and over half the fans would be from Arizona.”

And all that’s just about what’s in the stands. The Wildcats also have to deal with a somewhat more involved travel schedule, with one-off trips to most Big 12 games, and conference competition that is expected to be nothing short of brutal.

The Wildcats ranked No. 10 in the Associated Press Top 25 preseason poll but still fell below No. 1 Kansas, No. 4 Houston, No. 5 Iowa State, and No. 8 Baylor among Big 12 teams.

Also worth noting: Kenpom has all 16 of the Big 12’s teams this season ranked within its top 90.

“It’s fact. I don’t think it’s an opinion,” said Cincinnati coach Wes Miller, when asked why he thought the Big 12 was the nation’s best. “Just look at the numbers.”

Miller knows firsthand what those sort of numbers can translate into on the floor. After leading the Bearcats to a 23-13 overall record in 2022-23 as a member of the American Athletic Conference in his second season, he was asked to move with them to the Big 12 last season.

Cincinnati went 22-15 overall but was just 7-11 in Big 12 games. The Bearcats finished 11th in what was then a 14-team league, relegated to the NIT.

This year, Cincinnati is expected to build on that finish.

“It helps you elevate your program,” Miller said. “That experience was awesome. We knew we were heading into the best league, but now we’ve experienced it. So there’s more of an understanding of why you’re preparing at the level you’re preparing at.”

Coincidentally, it is now Cincinnati that will get a chance to hand Arizona its first Big 12 road test, hosting the Wildcats on Jan. 4.

Will the Wildcats be ready?

Can they survive the early January swing to Cincinnati and West Virginia, or one later in January to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State? Can they beat Baylor, Iowa State and Houston at home to stay in the thick of the race?

And will they avoid wobbling into the postseason after a late-season stretch in which they will play at Kansas State, Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas, all within the final four weeks before the Big 12 Tournament begins in Kansas City?

Here are five things that might give the Wildcats hope:

1. They can score in all sorts of ways

When Arizona rolled over a well-regarded Division II Point Loma team in their final exhibition on Oct. 28, the Wildcats had six players score in double figures — and all-America guard Caleb Love wasn’t one of them.

Nor was projected starting center Motiejus Krivas, who has sat out most of the preseason with an ankle injury. While the competition was hardly like what the Wildcats will see later this month at Wisconsin, against Duke or maybe even against Gonzaga in the Battle 4 Atlantis, the Wildcats demonstrated scoring punch at every position during exhibition play.

At center, Tennessee transfer Tobe Awaka averaged 13 points and 12 rebounds over two exhibition games. Power forward Trey Townsend poured in 24 points with 4-for-5 3-point shooting against Eastern New Mexico, then another 18 points with 2-for-3 3-point shooting against Point Loma, showing similar versatility and range to the departed Keshad Johnson.

On the perimeter, KJ Lewis averaged 13 points, while point guard Jaden Bradley averaged 12.0 points and 4.5 assists with just one turnover in both games.

It was a sign, possibly, that Bradley is ready to carry more of the ballhandling and scoring load without Kylan Boswell, who transferred to Illinois after being the Wildcats’ starting point guard last season.

“It’s just taking what the defense gives me,” Bradley said. “I love getting my teammates involved, and I’m seeing them go. But if the defense is forcing me, daring me to shoot, I’ll do that, too. Whatever.”

While Love wasn’t a dominant factor in the preseason, averaging 9.5 points and hitting only 3 of 11 3-pointers, he didn’t have to be. He can almost be a decoy at times, an all-American who can go off on opponents but can also just soak up defensive attention while his teammates take more open shots.

“I’m sure Caleb’s going to have 25-point-plus games here and there. That’s just the type of player he can be,” Lloyd said. “But I don’t know if we want to build our team where we’re dependent on that. I think we have a lot of weapons and a lot of pieces, and we come at you a lot of different ways.”

Including off the bench. Aussie wing Anthony Dell’Orso adds proven perimeter shooting in reserve, having shot 38.0% from 3-point range while leading Campbell in scoring with an average of 19.5 points last season.

Redshirt sophomore Henri Veesaar, meanwhile, appears much more prepared to contribute at both post spots this season, after sliding out of the rotation as a freshman in 2022-23 and missing last season with a dislocated elbow.

Veesaar had 19 points while making 8 of 9 field goals against ENMU, showing a speed and mobility unusual for his 7-foot frame, then was the first player off the bench in Arizona’s second exhibition game.

“Henri’s been awesome,” Lloyd said. “I know maybe he was out of sight, out of mind for some of you last year, but he was making progress the whole time and deserves a ton of credit.

“The injury was the major part of it, but I think that was a gift for him. You see his body. You see his confidence. You see a 7-foot guy coming off some of those short roll ball screens, hitting floaters. That’s really unique stuff, and then he can stroke 3s.”

Then there’s freshman Carter Bryant, a versatile, athletic 6-foot-8 forward whom ESPN rates the Wildcats’ top NBA prospect, with his ability to shoot from range, cut to the basket and elevate dramatically.

“Carter has a great ability to impact the game in a lot of areas,” Lloyd said.

The Wildcats have versatility and depth at every position except possibly point guard. But even there, Lloyd has options: When Bradley is out of the game, he can turn to Spanish sophomore Conrad Martinez, who played capably for Spain’s U20 team last summer, or slide over Lewis and Love from the wing positions. Lloyd says Dell’Orso could handle the ball in some situations also.

“It’s just having another lineup in case we need to rest JB,” Lloyd says.

2. They’ve gotten tougher

After Houston bowled over top-seeded Arizona in the 2022 Sweet 16, Lloyd vowed to get the Wildcats more physical, via both recruiting and coaching.

The effort didn’t quite pay off in 2022-23, when a worn-down UA team lost to No. 15 Princeton in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but transfer forward Keshad Johnson and then-freshman Lewis brought in elements of toughness last season.

This time, Lloyd mined the transfer portal to replace Johnson with Townsend, who was the mid-major player of the year at Oakland, and landed Tennessee’s Tobe Awaka, a Bronx-bred big man whose biggest challenge for the Volunteers was simply staying out of foul trouble.

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That’s the kind of problem Arizona needs at this point, if it wants to get tougher still. It helps that Awaka is a high-IQ student off the floor who commuted several hours round trip every day to play at a Bronx high school, then grew under Rick Barnes’ defensive focus at Tennessee.

“I love having the biggest, strongest guys on the floor and Tobe is such a sweetheart of a person, but he’s such a warrior of a player,” Lloyd said. “It’s a great combination. He’s really grown in his short time here and he came from a program that prides itself in toughness.”

Lloyd said he always strives to recruit size, that he would have recruited Awaka and Townsend even if the Wildcats were still in the Pac-12, and there’s few players bigger than Krivas.

The Lithuanian center’s 7-foot-2, 260-pound frame suggests a natural toughness, while he also showed considerable skills for his size as a freshman last season.

His biggest obstacle might be time. Since Krivas has missed the bulk of the preseason with his ankle injury, even if he returns for the Wildcats’ opener on Nov. 4 against Canisius, he might not be in full rhythm until the Wildcats prepare for Big 12 play in late December.

But in the meanwhile, the Wildcats have Awaka, Townsend and Veesaar up front, plus the option of using freshman Emmanuel Stephen, a high-upside but longer-term prospect who could redshirt this season.

On the wing, Lewis returns after showing the physicality and athleticism that made him an indispensable reserve as a freshman last season. He’s expected to start at small forward, but could wind up playing anything from point guard through power forward, somewhat like Pelle Larsson did the past three seasons before turning into a second-round draft pick of the Miami Heat.

“I like linebackers,” Lloyd said. “So it’s let’s get some guys out there that can play with physicality, but also play with some skill and intelligence. That’s the combination that we look for.”

Already known as a prolific scorer who starred in the 2022 Final Four and won the Pac-12 Player of the Year last season, Love may be approaching that combination, too.

Lloyd says his fifth-year standout guard has made improvements to his effort and energy, while Love speaks as if he’s embracing toughness.

“We’re gonna be real physical,” Love said. “We’re not really running from nobody. We respect every opponent, but the naysayers or the media had a question of if we can we go from the Pac-12 to the Big 12 because (the Pac-12) is not as physical.

“We’re definitely up for the challenge.”

3. Their defensive

cred is building

Lloyd’s first two Arizona teams had a defensive efficiency that lagged that of their offense, but the Wildcats equaled things out last season. They ranked 11th in Kenpom offensive efficiency, scoring 120.2 points per 100 possessions, and 10th in defensive efficiency, allowing opponents to average just 93.7 points for every 100 possessions.

Lewis says he’s looking for more this time.

“I think we’re going to be a way better defensive team,” Lewis said. Positions “one through five, we can switch everything. We’re going to be aggressive on the ball, off the ball. We’ve got guys who can rebound the ball at a high level, with Tobe, Trey, myself, Henri and Krivas. And we’ve got guards like me, Jaden, Caleb and Delly who can guard and Carter, who can guard the perimeter really well.”

But Lloyd says he won’t make any prediction about UA’s defense this season. After all, he lost Larsson and Johnson, two of his best defenders last season, while center Oumar Ballo, who transferred to Indiana, was also tough for opponents to deal with around the rim.

“I think some of the pieces make sense, but we also lost some really good defenders,” Lloyd said. “Big O was very effective in his own way, could be dominant. Keshad was a defensive specialist and Pelle was very versatile defensively. So we’re going to have to grow into that.”

If nothing else, Lloyd might be able to use depth to sustain defensive intensity, with the Wildcats able to go nine or 10 players deep if they are healthy.

“We’ve gotta get a little more experience and get better but I do think we can be a team that hangs our hat on the defensive end of the floor,” Lloyd said. “I think you can see that with the way we play. We can wear people out over time with ball pressure on defense, activity off the ball, transition offense, our post (play). There’s an an intentional aspect of what we’re doing.”

4. They’re worldly

Aside from walk-ons Grant Weitman (Salpointe) and Will Menaugh (Catalina Foothills), the Wildcats are not from Tucson, nor anywhere else in the state of Arizona. Seven of them aren’t even from the United States.

And one player is actually from traditional Big 12 territory. Lewis spent time in Vail but also mostly grew up in the El Paso and Dallas areas.

“I’m super excited,” Lewis said. “Texas is Big 12 country. I grew up watching the Big 12. I’ve got family in all parts of Texas so I’m super excited to get to play in front of them.”

Lewis and his teammates also have playing experience that spans all across the country, sometimes on both sides of the Atlantic, in different environments.

Townsend had 17 points and nine rebounds to help Oakland beat Kentucky in the NCAA Tournament last season. Awaka spent two seasons touring the SEC, while Bradley played in one with Alabama.

Love spent three seasons touring the ACC with North Carolina and helped send legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski into retirement with 22 points in the Tar Heels’ national semifinal win over Duke in 2022, then faced Kansas in the title game, when the Jayhawks ralled to win 72-69.

Even Dell’Orso experienced games at N.C. State and Virginia Tech while playing for low-major Campbell, while Veesaar (Estonia), Krivas (Lithuania), and Martinez (Spain) all have extensive experience with their national youth and/or senior teams.

So is it really that big a difference if the Wildcats are trudging through the plains of the Big 12 instead of the rolling hills of Washington’s Palouse or the big cities of California? Maybe not.

Especially not to a guy like Love, who is from St. Louis and has already played college basketball on its biggest stages for four years. During the Big 12’s media day, Love didn’t hesitate to answer when asked what conference games he was looking forward to.

“Every single one of them,” he said. “Because I know with the Big 12, it’s no freebies. There’s no game that you can relax.”

5. They’re the underdogs now

A perennial favorite or near-favorite to win the Pac-12 for more than three decades, Arizona finds itself in an odd position entering the Big 12: The Wildcats are still nationally relevant but picked to finish just fifth in the league.

As if to underscore that point, interview tables at Big 12 media day for Lloyd and another for three UA players — Love, Lewis and Bradley — were among the least crowded (though the Kansas City location undoubtedly had something to do with that).

The Wildcats were the new kids. Just another good team in a really good league.

Lloyd indicated he felt that way upon being handed UA’s first Big 12 schedule, which requires the Wildcats to play at Kansas on the final Saturday of the regular season but not get a chance to host the Jayhawks at McKale all season.

Lloyd said he looked the schedule over, then smiled.

“I have no problem with those guys calling the shots,” Lloyd said of the Big 12’s more senior coaches. “We’re here to be a part of it.”

But at the same time, maybe Lloyd flips it all to his advantage.

So the Wildcats were handed a back-loaded schedule in the best league in Division I. So Kansas, Houston, Iowa State and Baylor are the big dogs in town. So Love is the only UA player named to any sort of major preseason honor, in the Big 12 or otherwise.

That’s a lot of motivational fuel for the Wildcats’ long ride ahead.