Among the defining characteristics the Arizona Wildcats have established so far this season is the same one they have shown for decades.
That is, their ability to cure nearly all that ails them simply by spending a weekend at McKale Center.
The Wildcats had lost three of five games entering last weekend, dropping them from No. 1 to No. 10 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll and jolting their defensive confidence.
In a particularly damaging Quad 2 loss at Stanford on Dec. 31, the Wildcats gave up 58.1% shooting overall, allowed the Cardinal to become the first team to score 100 points against a Tommy Lloyd-coached UA team and prompted Lloyd to say their then-No. 2 Kenpom defensive rating was “an absolute lie.”
But at McKale Center last weekend, the Wildcats drummed two Pac-12 contenders, Colorado and Utah, keeping the Buffaloes to 50 points on 36.4% shooting and the Utes to 73 points on 41.2% shooting. Only the Utes played competitively, and even they trailed by double-digits for the final 14 minutes.
“It better be” like this, Lloyd said, when asked if he expected such a defensive turnaround. “It better be. I mean, we’re not trying to give up 100. That ain’t a winning formula. We need to be a great defensive team.”
Are they? Here’s five ways the metrics define the Wildcats’ defense and other characteristics as the midway point of the regular season hits this week:
Arizona guard Pelle Larsson (3) makes a grab for the ball as Utah center Branden Carlson (35) heads into the lane against UA center Oumar Ballo (11) in the second half of the Wildcats' win Saturday at McKale Center.
1. Their defense can be deceiving.
The Wildcats rank No. 5 overall in defensive efficiency, allowing just 91.1 points per 100 opponent possessions, and that isn’t a lie.
But underneath that number are reasons for concern. The Wildcats have actually allowed 99.1 points per 100 possessions in their four Pac-12 games, ranking just third in the conference, and their elite defensive rebounding can mask over their so-so shooting percentage defense.
Arizona players grab 79.9% of opponents’ missed shots, the third-highest defensive rebounding percentage in Division I, limiting their opponents’ second chance opportunities (and potentially easy baskets) on any given possession.
But when Arizona opponents do put it up, they are hitting 33.4% of their 3-pointers, ranking UA just 183 in defensive 3-point percentage, while Pac-12 teams shoot 36.8% from 3 against the Wildcats (a number that is skewed somewhat by Stanford’s 16-for-25 long-range shooting).
Lloyd has offered a variety of reasons for what happened at Maples, saying after the game that the Cardinal executed its offense well while UA guards were “getting their asses kicked.”
While it was one thing that Purdue guards Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith combined to hit nine 3s on Dec. 16 – when the Wildcats were understandably distracted by star center Zach Edey – it was another when a guy who had repeatedly burned them before, Stanford’s Spencer Jones, hit 5 of 6 3s. Maybe also that a recently eligible but highly rated Stanford freshman named Kanaan Carlyle hit 6 of 8 3s in what turned out to be his breakout game.
Lloyd also said after that New Year’s Eve mishap that Stanford hit some difficult shots, and reiterated that point on his radio show this week.
“Obviously that Stanford game, it fell apart, and there’s lots of reasons it fell apart,” he said. “Part of it was them hitting tough shots and part of it was us getting down and trying a bunch of things. Seems like everything we tried… sometimes you need to go through your Rolodex of options.”
Arizona guard Kylan Boswell (4) looks in to the paint after hitting a three during the first half of the Wildcats' 97-50 blowout of Colorado Thursday at McKale Center.
2. They score in bunches.
Arizona has made scoring runs of 10-0 or more 20 times over their 15 games, behind only Houston (21) among Division I teams. In what basketball analyst Evan Miya refers to as “kill shots,” the big runs are actually a sign that the Wildcats’ defense is pretty healthy overall.
In recent games, the Wildcats put Cal away with a 20-2 run that began after just three minutes, deflated Colorado with a 13-0 run to help take a 17-point lead after just seven minutes, and went on a 12-0 run early in the second half to pull away from Utah after leading by just three at halftime.
Arizona only has the No. 89th best defensive turnover percentage, 19.2, but has a knack for turning turnovers or long rebounds into devastating fast-break baskets, sometimes on a repeated basis.
While Lloyd said on his radio show that he views the big runs more as “kind of a byproduct for how we play” than anything he specifically aims for, there’s no doubt that they spread positive vibes to UA players and fans alike.
After the Utah game, when he was asked about the Wildcats appearing to play more together last weekend than they had in a month, senior wing Pelle Larsson didn’t hesitate.
“It’s our defense,” Larsson said. “Whenever we play good defense, good things happen. It’s “back to being more aggressive and going after people on defense.”
Arizona guard Caleb Love (2) gets manhandled by Colorado guard Luke O’Brien (0) driving into the lane in the first half of the Wildcats' dominant win over the Buffaloes Thursday at McKale Center.
3. They’re balanced.
The difference in average points per game between UA’s leading scorer, Caleb Love (17.7) and its fifth-leading scorer, Kylan Boswell (11.1) is just 6.6 points.
Lloyd’s direction is helping them stay that way. After Love scored 15 points in less than six minutes to help Arizona pull away from Utah in the second half Saturday, Lloyd told him to take his foot off the accelerator and let the rest of the Wildcats’ “bring it home.”
“Balance is something we strive for,” Lloyd said. “We don’t really tilt our offense in one direction for any one player. We want to make great decisions, to play great team basketball and we have talented players so they can do some stuff on their own when they get the opportunity.”
The Wildcats’ overall balance also shows up when combining defensive and offensive performance.
Miya’s individual Bayesian Performance Ratings, which measure a player’s worth to his team on both sides of the floor, range from 7.35 (Pelle Larsson) down to 4.96 (Keshad Johnson) for its top seven players, a spread of just 2.39 – with all seven players ranking among the top 125. Larsson ranks No. 10, Jaden Bradley 12, Caleb Love 43, Oumar Ballo 46, Boswell 83, KJ Lewis 103 and Johnson 125.
Miya says UA’s spread is much less than most other teams. By contrast, Duke’s top seven players range from 8.55 (Kyle Filipowski) to 3.93 (Ryan Young), a spread of 4.62 and and 7.35 for its top seven players — and a range in ranking from No. 4 to No. 273.
Arizona forward Filip Borovicanin (1) regains possession after beating Utah guard Cole Bajema (2) to the ball in the backcourt in the second half of the Wildcats' 19-point win over the Utes in a Pac-12 matchup Saturday at McKale Center.
4. Their bench is short but efficient.
Entering the season the possibility of playing nine or 10 guys, Lloyd has kept his rotation at eight, while lately sprinkling in more meaningful minutes to sophomore wing Filip Borovicanin and freshman forward Paulius Murauskas.
Lloyd whittled down to a seven-player core that arguably wore down last season, losing three times in its final six regular-season games and getting bounced in the first round of the NCAA Tournament loss by Princeton.
Whether eight is enough this time — with Borovicanin and Murauskas possibly expanding it — won’t be clear until the second half of the season plays out. But what it known is that the Wildcats’ three key reserves – Bradley, Lewis and center Motiejus Krivas – have all played significant roles so far.
Bradley is an efficient player on both sides of the floor, rarely forcing the issue while stealing the ball on 2.6% of opponents’ possessions when he’s on the floor. Lewis is a defensive sparkplug, stealing it 3.2% of the time and helping limit other teams’ top perimeter threats while throwing in 60.9% of his two-pointers when he breaks free offensively.
The 7-foot-2 Krivas, meanwhile, collects an eye-opening 17.2% of Arizona’s missed shots, an offensive rebounding percentage that would rank in the Top 15 nationally if he played the Kenpom minimum of 40% of minutes available per game. Krivas also draws 5.7 fouls per 40 minutes, while shooting 62.0% from the field (all two-point shots) and 77.5% from the free throw line.
“Our bench has been really great,” Lloyd said after the Utah game. “Those three guys have been steady off the bench for us. They really are changing the game. It might not be scoring and stuff like that but ... KJ and JB were in there when we made a little run in the first half.
“With Jaden — plus minus can be interesting stat if you really dissect it, but man he comes out on the high side of it a lot. I feel really comfortable with him out on the floor and Krivas is coming on.”
Lewis and Krivas actually rank sixth and seventh nationally among freshman who have outperformed preseason expectations, according to Miya’s rankings. Miya said freshmen “BPRs” start with a number that is almost exclusively based on recruiting rankings.
Lewis began with an overall ranking of 1055 and is now 105, while Krivas began as the 1,550th rated player and is now at 215.
“Lewis and Krivas are two of the most improved players in the country based on preseason expectations,” Miya said. “It’s been great for Arizona to have those reliable rotation pieces.”
Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd, right, argues a call with a referee, left, during the first half of ARizona's 100-82 New Year's Eve loss at Stanford.
5. They’ve seen it all
Maybe there’s an upside to the recent portion of Arizona’s schedule that Lloyd now refers to as “a gauntlet.”
After beating Wisconsin 98-73 at home on Dec. 9 to solidify their No. 1 ranking, the Wildcats played five games away from McKale Center, losing semi-neutral site games to Purdue (before a largely pro-Boilermaker crowd in Indianapolis) and to Florida Atlantic (before a largely pro-UA crowd in Las Vegas).
Then, the Pac-12 sent them back on the road for the first week of conference play, when they beat up Cal 100-81 but reversed the outcome in their 100-82 loss at Stanford.
But the Wildcats are likely to be rewarded on Selection Sunday for going 9-2 overall on a nonconference schedule Kenpom rates as the 10th toughest, while they also have now played four games on semi-neutral or neutral courts — the exact kind of courts they will be on for the NCAA Tournament.
Beyond that, Lloyd is also looking ahead to what he expects will be tough road environments everywhere in the Big 12 next season, when the Wildcats can still enjoy McKale for home games but also must play at teams with similar environments at their home arenas.
“Obviously, playing on the road is hard. It’s hard for everybody. It’s hard for us,” Lloyd said on his radio show. “When you get into place like McKale and you have over 14,000 fans engaged in the game going crazy. … you’re not finding that in a lot of college environments these days. There’s probably only 20 or 30 schools that give you that look… and next year, the road games are tough. So I want to make sure we’re developing into a great road team.”
