In one regard, the Pac-12 hasn’t splintered: All 12 schools remain tied to the bowls that have been affiliated with the conference in recent years. Exceptions are made for teams that qualify for the College Football Playoff as conference winners or at-large entrants. Otherwise, what’s past is present for the 2024-25 seasons.
The Hotline will provide weekly projections for the teams throughout the regular season.
Three weekends remain in round-robin conference play, but only one is needed for clarity on the postseason status of several teams tied to Pac-12 bowls.
By the close of business Saturday night, we'll know:
• If Arizona, which must sweep its final three games to become bowl-eligible, has been eliminated.
• If Cal and Washington, which need one victory to secure a berth, are safe.
• If Oregon State, UCLA, USC and Utah, which need two wins in their final three games, have any margin for error remaining.
Penn State tight end Tyler Warren (44) runs past Washington cornerback Jordan Shaw (3) during the fourth quarter of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 9, 2024, in State College, Pa.
All the uncertainty at the bottom of the pecking order has created a wide range of outcomes.
The collection of 12 current and former Pac-12 schools could produce nine or 10 bowl-eligible teams, in which case several would become free agents looking for vacancies in games tied to other leagues.
Or the group could produce just five or six eligible teams, in which case the bowls affiliated with the Pac-12 would have availability.
By the end of the week, the picture will come into focus.
To the Hotline's latest projections ...
College Football Playoff
Team: Oregon (Big Ten champion)
Comment: The Ducks have a 95% chance to reach the CFP (as the Big Ten champion or an at-large team), according to the ESPN playoff predictor. Considering Oregon (10-0) has Wisconsin (5-4) and Washington (5-5) remaining, that seems low.
College Football Playoff
Team: Colorado (Big 12 champion)
Comment: Win out, and the Buffaloes (7-2) would clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game and be one victory from the CFP. We are not sure the college football media machine could handle Deion Sanders in the playoff without hyperventilating. (That's doubly true of ESPN.)
Alamo Bowl
Team: Washington State
Comment: The climb into the CFP is not as steep as the sheer face of El Capitan, but the Cougars (8-1) need a load of teams ranked ahead of them to lose — and they might need a few of them to lose twice. The Alamo would be a perfectly satisfactory fallback option, however.
Holiday Bowl
Team: Arizona State
Comment: We have reached the point in the lineup where any team with eight wins will have an excellent chance to spend the holidays in San Diego. And the Sun Devils (7-2), who haven't participated in the Holiday Bowl since 2013, are the best bet to reach eight.
Las Vegas Bowl
Team: USC
Comment: Welcome to the realm of no good options, where bowl officials will have to force a smile and extend a warm welcome to mediocre teams. Because of its brand, USC (4-5) stands the best chance of being the first selection of what feels like a supplemental draft.
Sun Bowl
Team: Washington
Comment: At least the Huskies (5-5) have company in their mediocrity, courtesy of the team that beat them for the national championship last winter. Michigan is one victory from a bowl berth, as well, and faces its rival at the end of the month. Whereas the Huskies face UCLA (4-5) this weekend, the Wolverines play Northwestern (4-5).
LA Bowl
Team: Cal
Comment: You do not need a Cal degree to understand the bowl math in Berkeley, where the Bears (5-4) are one victory away from their second consecutive postseason berth. They host Syracuse and Stanford, then visit 14th-ranked SMU. One of those challenges is not like the others.
Non-qualifier
Team: Arizona
Comment: For a period of time, we considered the possibility that Arizona (3-6) could get hot, win three in a row and qualify for a bowl berth. That period of time is called a zeptosecond, and it equates to a trillionth of a billionth of a second.
Arizona defensive lineman Tre Smith (3) gets through the blocks to stop West Virginia running back Jahiem White (1) in the fourth quarter of their Big 12 game, Oct. 25, 2024.
Non-qualifier
Team: Oregon State
Comment: The Beavers (4-5) are more likely to lose their final three (Air Force, Washington State and Boise State) than they are to win twice. The gut-punch result continuing to resonate was the five-point loss at Nevada, which is winless in the Mountain West.
Non-qualifier
Team: Stanford
Comment: The Hotline would be happy to share a few reasons to believe better days are ahead for the Cardinal. Just give us a few years to identify them.
Non-qualifier
Team: UCLA
Comment: Credit the Bruins (4-5) for three consecutive wins and climbing out of the gutter — we gave serious consideration to moving them into the postseason field. Best bet: The winner of the crosstown showdown next week (in the Rose Bowl) is in; the loser is out. At the moment, we favor the Trojans.
Non-qualifier
Team: Utah
Comment: The Hotline saw enough from the Utes on Saturday night to believe they can win one of their final three against Colorado (road), Iowa State (home) and UCF (road). But our supercomputer views the likelihood of Utah (4-5) securing a second victory as less than 50%. So here we are.
