Pac-12 preview: Breaking down QB depth (because it’s not always about the starters)

The Pac-12 is entering the final season of its existence with perhaps the finest quarterback class in its history.

The conference has the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and three of the top nine betting favorites for the 2023 award.

It has three of the top four quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus’ early look at the NFL Draft prospects at each position.

It has five former five-star recruits, with two scheduled to start the 2023 season on the bench because of the talent ahead of them.

But there’s more to quarterback play than the quality of the starter, and the Pac-12 Hotline’s quarterback comfort quotient (QBCQ) takes depth into account. After all, the backup quarterback is the least important player on the roster right up until the moment he becomes the most important.

The following ranking is based on a subjective assessment of each team’s ability to navigate the season given existing options within the quarterback room (Note: Not all backups are listed, only those we believe relevant for 2023):

1. WASHINGTON

Starter: Michael Penix Jr.

Key backup: Dylan Morris

Comment: The Huskies are one of the few teams nationally that possess both an elite starter and a proven backup. Penix stands as a Heisman contender while Morris owns 489 career attempts and 15 starts. Yes, his efficiency was spotty in the lead role in 2020-21. But we attribute that largely to the prehistoric offense UW ran under the previous regime. With the current coaching and playbook at his disposal, Morris projects as the top backup in the conference.

2. USC

Starter: Caleb Williams

Key backups: Miller Moss, Malachi Nelson

Comment: We gave serious thought to slotting the Trojans in the top spot, largely because Williams is nothing short of phenomenal. But Moss has just 27 career attempts, and Nelson is a true freshman. If Williams misses time due to injury, USC’s situation turns precarious. Put another way: The difference between the USC and Washington starters isn’t as great as the difference between the respective backups.

3. Oregon

Starter: Bo Nix

Key backup: Ty Thompson

Comment: The clear choice for No. 3 given the state of affairs in Salt Lake City (see below). Nix played as well as anyone in the first half of last season but had injury issues down the stretch. That said, he isn’t quite at Williams’ level, and Thompson, who has just 35 career attempts, isn’t nearly as experienced as Washington’s backup. And we cannot ignore the staff change, with Will Stein taking over as Oregon’s offensive coordinator. The playcallers are part of the QB room, after all.

4. Oregon state

Starter: DJ Uiagalelei

Key backups: Ben Gulbranson, Aiden Chiles

Comment: Uiagalelei was named the starter this week, according to Oregonlive, meaning the Clemson transfer played well enough to unseat Gulbranson, the incumbent, and fend off the talented Chiles. That bodes well for OSU’s playmaking at the position and leaves the Beavers with a solid option if Uiagalelei struggles. Gulbranson (204 career attempts) is perfectly capable, especially when compared to other backups across the conference.

5. UTAH

Starter: Cameron Rising

Key backups: Bryson Barnes, Nate Johnson

Comment: This is the most difficult situation to assess because of Rising’s recovery from a torn knee ligament. He didn't play in Utah’s season-opening dominant win Thursday against Florida and his status for Week 2 isn't certain as well. Also unknown: When will Rising return to his pre-injury form with regard to rhythm, timing and confidence in his knee? Barnes has 59 career attempts and isn’t a bad option. But the QBCQ is a relative assessment. At this point, we don’t have enough clarity to slot the Utes on the top tier.

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6. UCLA

Starter: Ethan Garbers

Key backups: Dante Moore, Collin Schlee

Comment: It comes as no surprise that UCLA was one of the few Pac-12 teams without a named starter so close to the opener. Yes, Chip Kelly keeps these matters so close to the vest they’re essentially sewn into his abdomen. But he also had several choices with a veteran (Garbers), a heralded recruit (Moore) and a proven transfer (Schlee, from Kent State). Our hunch was right: Kelly opted for the safe pick, but gives himself the option to elevate Moore at the first sign of trouble.

7. ARIZONA State

Starter: Jaden Rashada

Key backups: Drew Pyne, Trenton Bourguet

Comment: Rashada, a former blue-chip recruit who encountered NIL issues at Florida and switched his allegiance to ASU, was named the starter this week. He beat out an incumbent (Bourguet) who completed 71 percent of his passes last season. The move makes loads of sense for rookie coach Kenny Dillingham: Might as well start the multi-year reclamation project with the quarterback who possesses the highest ceiling over time.

8. ARIZONA

Starter: Jayden de Laura

Key backup: Noah Fifita

Comment: The Hotline remains in wait-and-see mode with de Laura: Does he possess the maturity necessary to handle the inevitable in-game setbacks without letting one mistake turn into multiple mistakes? Meanwhile, the top backup, Fifita, attempted just 19 passes last year as a rookie. All of which means the Wildcats’ quarterback room features a starter who’s as likely to make big mistakes as big plays, plus an unproven second stringer. Not ideal, although the upside potential is substantial if de Laura raises his game.

9. Washington State

Starter: Cam Ward

Key backups: John Mateer

Comment: The Cougars are on the short list of teams capable of making our QBCQ rankings look foolish before the season ends if Ward emerges as one of the Pac-12’s best. We didn’t see enough from him last year, following his transfer from Incarnate Word, to assume significant progress in 2023. (Also, he’s working with a new playcaller in Ben Arbuckle). Meanwhile, Mateer has limited experience. We view WSU as comparable to Arizona, but de Laura has a larger sample size to assess than Ward.

10. COLORADO

Starter: Shedeur Sanders

Key backups: Ryan Staub, Kasen Weisman

Comment: Few quarterbacks are entering the season with more hype than Sanders, the head coach’s son who dazzled last year at Jackson State. The only problem? Sanders dazzled at Jackson State, an FCS program in the Southwestern Athletic Conference. He hasn’t faced maximum resistance (from opposing players or defensive coordinators) on a weekly basis. An uneven season feels inevitable, and it’s not like the Buffaloes have any veteran backups after gutting the quarterback room.

11. Cal

Starter: Sam Jackson

Key backups: Ben Finley, Fernando Mendoza

Comment: Jackson arrives from TCU after attempting a whopping six passes for the Horned Frogs over two seasons and will work with new playcaller Jake Spavital in an offense designed for his skill set. If he struggles — and that’s a safe bet — the options are decidedly suboptimal. We give the edge to Finley, who threw 152 passes during his three-year career at N.C. State. Consider Cal’s quarterback room a massive work in progress.

12. STANFORD

Projected starter: Ari Patu

Key backups: Ashton Daniels

Comment: The six quarterbacks on Stanford’s official roster have combined to attempt 31 career passes, creating a level of collective inexperience that requires a Stanford degree to comprehend. Patu accounts for 25 of the 31, which makes him the apparent frontrunner. Our advice: Feel free to interchange the Bay Area teams; we have limited clarity on either situation.