Editor's note: This story ran in the Star's college football special section.
Superconferences aren’t coming; they’re already here.
Five of the eight College Football Playoffs have been won by teams from the SEC. One of the other three went to the Big Ten (Ohio State in 2014-15). If it weren’t for Clemson — which has six CFP appearances and two titles — it’d be all-superpowers, all the time.
The Big 12 has made only four appearances in the CFP, all by Oklahoma — which is headed to the SEC later this decade. The other big movers — Texas, USC and UCLA — have combined for zero CFP berths, but hey, who’s counting?
This year’s race for the national title is especially top-heavy. It’s Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia in some order — followed by everybody else.
Can an outsider break through, a la Cincinnati last season? Can anyone snap the SEC’s streak of three straight national championships?
The Star’s Michael Lev sees a least a few surprises on the horizon. Here’s how he voted in the preseason Associated Press poll:
1. Ohio State
2021 record: 11-2, 8-1 Big Ten
Coach: Ryan Day (fourth year)
In a sentence: The Buckeyes are absolutely loaded on offense — C.J. Stroud, TreVeyon Henderson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are all first-team All-America candidates — and if new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles can do for Ohio State what he did for Oklahoma State, this OSU squad can win it all.
2. Alabama
2021 record: 13-2, 7-1 SEC (lost in CFP final)
Coach: Nick Saban (16th year)
In a sentence: The Crimson Tide have elite talent all over the place — including the reigning Heisman Trophy winner (Bryce Young) and the possible No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL draft (Will Anderson) — and it would be a major upset if they didn’t return to the CFP for the eighth time in nine years.
3. Georgia
2021 record: 14-1, 8-0 SEC (won national championship)
Coach: Kirby Smart (seventh year)
In a sentence: It’s always hard to repeat — even Saban hasn’t won back-to-back titles — but Georgia, which has stacked one stellar recruiting class upon another, remains a legitimate threat.
4. Utah
2021 record: 10-4, 8-1 Pac-12
Coach: Kyle Whittingham (18th year)
In a sentence: The Utes have a ton back on offense, enough back on defense and a friendly enough schedule to earn the Pac-12’s first CFP berth since 2016-17 – if they can get past Florida in September and Oregon in November.
North Carolina State’s Devin Leary threw for 35 touchdowns last season.
5. North Carolina State
2021 record: 9-3, 6-2 ACC
Coach: Dave Doeren (10th year)
In a sentence: We ranked the Wolfpack higher than any other AP voter, but we love the quarterback — Devin Leary posted an elite 35-5 TD-INT ratio last season — and the defense, which was pretty good last year despite a spate of injuries, should be even better in 2022.
6. Clemson
2021 record: 10-3, 6-2 ACC
Coach: Dabo Swinney (15th year)
In a sentence: The Tigers might have the best defensive front in college football, but we’re fading them a bit because they have to replace two longtime coordinators, and their quarterback, DJ Uiagalelei, really struggled last season (55.6% completion rate, 9-10 TD-INT ratio).
7. Texas A&M
2021 record: 8-4, 4-4 SEC
Coach: Jimbo Fisher (fifth year)
In a sentence: Four consecutive top-10 recruiting classes have the Aggies teeming with talent and on a Georgia-esque trajectory, but do they have the quarterback to make that leap this year – especially playing in the brutal SEC West?
8. Michigan
2021 record: 12-2, 8-1 Big Ten (lost in CFP semifinals)
Coach: Jim Harbaugh (eighth year)
In a sentence: Whether it’s Cade McNamara, J.J. McCarthy or some combination of the two at quarterback, the Wolverines should have the second-best offense in the Big Ten; we’re not as confident in the defense, which lost a ton of production to the NFL.
9. Notre Dame
2021 record: 11-2
Coach: Marcus Freeman (first year)
In a sentence: As of this writing, Freeman and his staff had reeled in the No. 3 recruiting class in the nation for 2023; his current squad is strong up front on both sides of the ball but must break in a new quarterback.
10. Oklahoma
2021 record: 12-2, 8-1 Big 12
Coach: Brent Venables (first year)
In a sentence: The vibe will be different in Norman under the defensive-oriented Venables, but the Sooners are still the Sooners, and they picked up an underrated QB talent in Dillon Gabriel — who must stay healthy for OU to reclaim the Big 12 crown.
11. Oregon
2021 record: 10-4, 7-2 Pac-12
Coach: Dan Lanning (first year)
In a sentence: No team on the West Coast has a more talented roster than the Ducks, but is Bo Nix — assuming he wins the starting QB job — good enough to push them past Utah and into the CFP conversation?
12. USC
2021 record: 4-8, 3-6 Pac-12
Coach: Lincoln Riley (first year)
In a sentence: The Trojans loaded up with high-profile transfers, instantly transforming their roster, and they’ll be a handful, especially on offense, if Caleb Williams can build on his freshman year at Oklahoma (64.5% completion rate, 21-4 TD-INT, 79-442-6 rushing).
13. Arkansas
2021 record: 9-4, 4-4 SEC
Coach: Sam Pittman (third year)
In a sentence: There was nothing fluky about the Razorbacks’ 2021 breakthrough, which included wins over Texas, Texas A&M, LSU and Penn State; besides, how can you not like a team whose leading tackler is named Bumper Pool?
14. Baylor
2021 record: 12-2, 7-2 Big 12
Coach: Dave Aranda (third year)
In a sentence: The Bears have experienced some wild swings over the past five years, including two seasons with 11-plus wins and two with two or fewer; we don’t see a huge drop-off this year, but another top-five finish feels like a stretch.
15. Michigan State
2021 record: 11-2, 7-2 Big Ten
Coach: Mel Tucker (third year)
In a sentence: The Spartans notched double-figure wins last year despite having the worst pass defense in the nation; if they just regress to the mean there, they’ll push Michigan for second place in the Big Ten East.
16. Oklahoma State
2021 record: 12-2, 8-1 Big 12
Coach: Mike Gundy (18th year)
In a sentence: We’re a little lower on the Cowboys than the consensus (No. 12) because they lost so much on defense; that’ll ratchet up the pressure on veteran QB Spencer Sanders, who’s still striving for consistency (2-9 TD-INT ratio vs. Baylor and Oklahoma last year; 18-3 vs. everybody else).
17. Tennessee
2021 record: 7-6, 4-4 SEC
Coach: Josh Heupel (second year)
In a sentence: We’ve been guilty of overrating the Volunteers in the past, but Heupel seems to have them headed in the right direction, and the offense again should be among the country’s best after ranking in the top 10 in scoring and total yards last year.
18. Miami
2021 record: 7-5, 5-3 ACC
Coach: Mario Cristobal (first year)
In a sentence: The Hurricanes could re-enter the national-title conversation someday thanks to Cristobal’s recruiting prowess; it isn’t crazy to think they can contend for the ACC crown in Year 1 with Tyler Van Dyke (62.3% completion rate, 25-6 TD-INT) back to lead the offense.
19. Ole Miss
2021 record: 10-3, 6-2 SEC
Coach: Lane Kiffin (third year)
In a sentence: Kiffin has leaned heavily on the transfer portal, making the 2022 Rebels something of a mystery team; but we liked what we saw of QB Jaxson Dart at USC and believe Kiffin is the right coach to maximize his talent.
20. Pittsburgh
2021 record: 11-3, 7-1 ACC
Coach: Pat Narduzzi (eighth year)
In a sentence: The Panthers lost two transcendent players in QB Kenny Pickett (NFL) and receiver Jordan Addison (transfer), but a veteran offensive line and a stellar defensive front put another top-25 season well within reach.
21. Wisconsin
2021 record: 9-4, 6-3 Big Ten
Coach: Paul Chryst (eighth year)
In a sentence: Led by star tailback Braelon Allen, who rushed for 1,268 yards as a true freshman, the Badgers will run the ball down opponents’ throats, per usual; but we worry that erratic QB Graham Mertz (15-18 career TD-INT ratio) will hold them back.
Tucson’s Bijan Robinson has Texas poised for a renaissance under coach Steve Sarkisian.
22. Texas
2021 record: 5-7, 3-6 Big 12
Coach: Steve Sarkisian (second year)
In a sentence: The Longhorns can’t possibly be that bad again with so much high-end talent on the roster, including Tucson tailback Bijan Robinson; the defense must improve, though, and it likely will with longtime TCU head coach Gary Patterson now part of the staff.
23. Kentucky
2021 record: 10-3, 5-3 SEC
Coach: Mark Stoops (10th year)
In a sentence: Mike Stoops’ little brother has a good thing going at a supposed basketball school, leading these Wildcats to six straight bowl berths; supremely talented QB Will Levis gives them a chance to compete with anyone in the SEC East not named Georgia.
24. BYU
2021 record: 10-3
Coach: Kalani Sitake (seventh year)
In a sentence: The Cougars have the most returning production in the nation per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, and they’re going to need it to navigate a schedule that includes home games against Baylor and Arkansas, a trip to Oregon and a neutral-site game vs. Notre Dame.
25. Cincinnati
2021 record: 13-1, 8-0 AAC (lost in CFP semifinals)
Coach: Luke Fickell (sixth year)
In a sentence: The Bearcats had nine players picked in the NFL draft after their magical run to the CFP, including cornerback Sauce Gardner, the No. 4 overall selection; they won’t go unbeaten in the regular season again, but the AAC title is theirs to lose.
