The final dominoes will fall into place over the next two days, but Mountain West Conference deputy commissioner Bret Gilliland has another game to describe the maneuvering it will take to fill the NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl, which is set for a Dec. 30 kickoff.
“I often describe it as a Rubik’s Cube — you have all these moving parts you’re trying to fit together in a logical way,” Gilliland said this week. “Every year in late-November, early-December, it’s a different set of circumstances.”
This year, the conference expects to fill its spot with ease. Seven Mountain West teams — Boise State, Air Force, San Diego State, Wyoming, New Mexico and Colorado State and Hawaii — have qualified.
Last season, Nevada defeated Colorado State, 28-23, in an all-MWC matchup, as neither Conference USA, the primary bowl tie-in along with the MWC, nor the Sun Belt, the backup, had enough bowl-eligible teams.
This year, the first with the Sun Belt on as co-primary partner, both leagues will meet the threshold.
Appalachian State, Troy and Arkansas State are already qualified, and Idaho and Louisiana-Lafayette can qualify with wins on Saturday.
“We’ve started to watch the dominoes fall into place the last few weeks, knowing we needed teams to get bowl eligible,” Arizona Bowl executive director Mike Feder said. “It might be why I watched the Idaho game last week.”
All the top candidates for this year’s game have good incentives yet some potential roadblocks.
New Mexico is 8-4 and a contender, but the Lobos may opt to stay home for their own bowl game, the New Mexico Bowl. The Idaho Potato Bowl could pick Boise State, or the Broncos could end up at a higher-tier game like the Cactus Bowl depending on how other conferences fare.
Colorado State (7-5) could visit Tucson for the second straight year, and Air Force (9-3) would be a coup given the city’s military ties.
Saturday’s Mountain West Conference championship game between San Diego State and Wyoming will go a long way in determining the outcome, and an Arizona Bowl contingent will be there to watch it unfold.
“There are conversations that go on with a number of different parties in the process,” Gilliland said. “We talk to institutions, get a sense of what they’re preferences might be in a perfect world — understanding it’s not a perfect world — and we talk to bowl partners about geography and potential matchups from an attractiveness and competitiveness standpoint.”
The two participants are important, but Feder said the groundwork for the game has been laid months in advance.
“Maybe 50 percent or less is contingent on who’s playing the game; actually, maybe 25 percent has to do with the teams,” Feder said. “When it comes to the teams, I’m just watching as a fan. Nothing we do affects who is coming here. You can have some backroom conversations, but ultimately the conferences select who our teams are going to be.”
Feder added that the success of the bowl was determined not by those coming in to support their teams, but by the Tucson fans who will fill the seats.
“We cannot — and I underline cannot — depend on out-of-towners making this game successful,” he said. “It’s the complement of the locals and the team’s fans that makes it work.”
