The following ballot was submitted to the Associated Press last week and includes each team’s ranking in the AP poll, which was released Monday morning.
1. UCLA (AP: No. 2): With the core intact (Tyger Campbell, Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez Jr.) and two key additions (transfer Myles Johnson and recruit Peyton Watson), the Bruins are well set for another run at their 12th national title. But they must be willing to grind, or the end will come sooner than expected.
2. Kansas (3): The addition of Arizona State transfer Remy Martin gives the Jayhawks an airtight rotation. The biggest obstacle to a Final Four run, NCAA sanctions, appears unlikely to materialize before March.
3. Purdue (7): The roster could be Matt Painter’s best in West Lafayette — he has one Elite Eight appearance but no Final Fours — especially with the return of first-team all-Big Ten big man Trevion Williams.
4. Gonzaga (1): Drew Timme’s back and will be surrounded by the usual array of talent, including the nation’s No. 1 recruit, Chet Holmgren. But the Zags lost a load of production and experience. Expect a few losses early.
5. Arkansas (16): Eric Musselman could trot out five walk-ons and we’d consider slotting his Hogs into the top 25. The 2021-22 lineup will rely heavily on transfers — an approach Musselman has used successfully in the past.
6. Villanova (4): Guard Collin Gillespie’s return from injury gives the Wildcats the floor leadership needed to make Jay Wright’s system work. Replacing forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is the tricky part. We expect Nova to stumble early and roll late.
7. Texas (5): The additions of Marcus Carr from Minnesota and Timmy Allen from Utah should give first-year coach Chris Beard enough scoring punch to complement what we assume will be a stingy defense.
8. Alabama (14): Third-year coach Nate Oats is ahead of pace in his remake of the Crimson Tide. With point guard Jahvon Quinerly returning, the trajectory should continue.
9. Memphis (12): The Tigers continue to collect elite talent, with mega-recruit Emoni Bates the latest to join Penny Hardaway’s program. At some point, Hardaway needs to show he knows what he’s doing.
10. Oregon (13): The influx of transfers, including forward Quincy Guerrier from Syracuse, could result in a bumpy start, but the Ducks should be rolling by February. Will Richardson is one of the nation’s most underrated point guards.
11. Connecticut (24): Our top sleeper pick is based on coach Danny Hurley’s impressive rebuild of the once-great program. The Huskies should thrive even without James Bouknight.
12. Michigan (6): The Wolverines were walloped by attrition but return big man Hunter Dickinson and welcome a loaded recruiting class. We won’t be the slightest bit surprised if they’re one of the last four teams standing.
13. Duke (9): Highly unlikely the Blue Devils slump for a second consecutive season, especially with a loaded recruiting class and the emotional fuel provided by Mike Krzyzewski’s final season.
Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski responds to questions during the team's NCAA college basketball media day in Durham, N.C., Tuesday, Sept. 28, 2021. (AP Photo/Gerry Broome)
14. Kentucky (10): How far has SEC basketball come in the past five years? Well, Big Blue has top-10 talent but isn’t the clear favorite to win the conference.
15. Houston (15): Coach Kelvin Sampson has pushed the program to a place where the loss of one player — in this case, Quentin Grimes — won’t derail momentum.
16. Ohio State (17): The return of All-American forward E.J. Liddell and guard Justice Sueing gives the Buckeyes a shot to contend in the rugged Big Ten.
17. Maryland (21): The Terps have performed just fine in the Big Ten since joining the conference, but that’s not the case in the NCAAs. Time for coach Mark Turgeon to produce a deep run.
18. Baylor (8): Matthew Mayer returns for the national champs, who have added Arizona transfer James Akinjo. But there’s no way to properly replace Davion Mitchell, Jared Butler and MaCio Teague.
19. Illinois (11): The return of center Kofi Cockburn helps offset the loss of All-American guard Ayo Dosunmu, but we expect some slippage for a program seven months removed from a No. 1 seed.
Illinois center Kofi Cockburn (21) looks at the basket as Drexel's Camren Wynter (11) and Tim Perry Jr. defend during the first half of a first round NCAA college basketball tournament game Friday, March 19, 2021, at the Indiana Farmers Coliseum in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
20. St. Bonaventure (23): Looking for potential bracket busters? The Bonnies, who lost in the first round last spring, might be atop the list.
21. Virginia (25): This ranking is a Tony Bennett play and only a Tony Bennett play. Anyone have a problem with that?
22. USC (NR): Easy to ignore the Trojans without Evan Mobley, but the roster has enough returning pieces to remain relevant, especially if Isaiah Mobley goes next-level with his consistency.
23. Mississippi State (NR): Year Seven just might be the best year under Ben Howland, who has yet to finish in the top three of the increasingly competitive SEC.
24. North Carolina (19): We’re in wait-and-see mode with new coach Hubert Davis, but there’s enough talent to keep the program from a complete and utter backslide.
25. Michigan State (NR): The last and first teams on the ballot are deeply connected: If the Spartans hadn’t blown that late lead to UCLA in the First Four — they were up five with 90 seconds left — who knows where, or if, the Bruins would be ranked.
