Two months from training camp and three from the start of a momentous season for the Pac-12, the state of play at the most important position remains extraordinarily muddled.
Muddled by the paucity of entrenched starters.
Muddled by the prevalence of new arrivals.
Muddled by the lingering impact of 2020 injuries.
Only six teams have a reasonable degree of quarterback clarity, while a handful should require name tags in the meeting room.
The most statistically accomplished quarterback in the conference, Utah’s Charlie Brewer, was in the Big 12 in 2020, while the most competitively accomplished, USC’s Kedon Slovis, has just a dozen career victories.
In the latest edition of the Quarterback Comfort Quotient (QBCQ) rankings, the Hotline attempts to make sense of it all.
As always, the QBCQ is based on the following premise: The backup quarterback is the least important player on the roster … until he’s the most important.
As a result, the rankings below consider the quality of the presumptive starter and the likely reliability of the backups.
Notes:
Eligibility listed with returning players accounts for free year granted by the NCAA for the 2020 season: A junior last fall, for example, is a junior this fall.
Rosters are taken from team websites, but the situation is highly fluid due to the transfer portal: A quarterback could be there today and gone tomorrow.
I have included our January rankings for comparative purposes.
1. UCLA
Jan. ranking: 2
Who’s gone: N/A
Who’s back: Dorian Thompson-Robinson (junior), Chase Griffin (freshman), Parker McQuarrie (freshman), Chase Artopoeus (freshman), Blake Kirschner (freshman)
Who’s new: Ethan Garbers (Washington), Kajiya Hollawayne (freshman)
Projected starter: Thompson-Robinson
Comment: We’re bullish on Thompson-Robinson’s progress with regard to decisions and execution, while the combination of Garbers and Griffin, who nearly beat Oregon and Stanford last season in emergency duty, provides UCLA with quality options. But this ranking is as much about the competition as the Bruins’ depth chart. Viewed broadly, they are the one-eyed man in the QB room of the blind.
2. Washington
Jan. ranking: 5
Who’s gone: Ethan Garbers, Kevin Thomson, Jacob Sirmon
Who’s back: Dylan Morris (freshman), Jesse Martineau (freshman)
Who’s new: Sam Huard (freshman), Patrick O’Brien (Colorado State), Camden Sirmon (freshman)
Projected starter: Morris
Comment: Significant jump in position for the Huskies is based on spring developments: How bad can the quarterback depth be if the five-star arrival (Huard) is your No. 3. Morris isn’t an elite talent, but he’s plenty solid as the No. 1 option. O’Brien makes for a quality Plan B after throwing more than 400 passes for Nebraska and Colorado State.
3. Utah
Jan. ranking: 6
Who’s gone: Jake Bentley, Drew Lisk, Nick Billoups
Who’s back: Cam Rising (sophomore), Bryson Barnes (freshman)
Who’s new: Charlie Brewer (Baylor), Ja’Quinden Jackson (Texas), Peter Costelli (freshman)
Projected starter: Brewer
Comment: We rarely place significant weight on spring practice, but Utah is the exception: Brewer’s performance was that of a proven veteran (65 touchdown passes in the Big 12) rapidly gaining comfort in a new system and emerging as the likely starter. The Utes would be a tick higher on the list, but we’re skeptical of Rising’s ceiling after the shoulder surgery.
4. USC
Jan. ranking: 4
Who’s gone: Matt Fink
Who’s back: Kedon Slovis (sophomore), Brad Aoki (sophomore), Isaac Ward (freshman)
Who’s new: Miller Moss (freshman), Jaxson Dart (freshman)
Projected starter: Slovis
Comment: Given Slovis’ slight frame, the number of times he stands in the pocket and the unproven offensive line, durability is a major concern. Fink’s departure greatly undercuts the experience level of the QB room, but the Trojans have added enough young talent (Dart and Moss) to possess non-terrible options if Slovis gets injured.
5. Arizona State
Jan. ranking: 3
Who’s gone: N/A
Who’s back: Jayden Daniels (sophomore), Daylin McLemore (freshman), Trenton Bourguet (freshman), Nathan Manning (freshman)
Who’s new: Finn Collins (freshman)
Projected starter: Daniels
Comment: Little has changed in Tempe since our winter assessment, and that’s why the Sun Devils slipped a few rungs. Daniels has loads of potential, but his efficiency thus far has been less than stellar — we aren’t assuming high-level play in the fall. Meanwhile, there’s zero experience behind him, and several competitors have upgraded their depth.
6. Oregon
Jan. ranking: 1
Who’s gone: Tyler Shough, Cale Millen
Who’s back: Anthony Brown (senior), Bradley Yaffe (sophomore), Jay Butterfield (freshman), Robby Ashford (freshman)
Who’s new: Ty Thompson (freshman)
Projected starter: Brown
Comment: Sure, that’s a significant downgrade, but Shough’s departure (to Texas Tech) was a double-whammy, stripping the Ducks of a high-level talent and increasing their dependence on inexperienced returnees. We expect Brown to be solid but not sterling. Thompson and Butterfield are highly acclaimed, but freshmen behind a sub-elite starter is less than ideal.
7. Cal
Jan. ranking: 8
Who’s gone: Devon Modster, Spencer Brasch
Who’s back: Chase Garbers (junior), Robby Rowell (sophomore), Zach Johnson (freshman)
Who’s new: Kai Millner (freshman)
Projected starter: Garbers
Comment: Garbers is the most experienced returnee in the conference, a multi-year starter with more than 500 career attempts and several game-winning drives. We considered a higher ranking for the Bears but ultimately refrained for three reasons: lingering doubt from Garbers’ uneven play in 2020; his history of injuries; and the absence of experienced backups.
8. Colorado
Jan. ranking: 10
Who’s gone: Sam Noyer, Tyler Lytle, Dylan Jacob, Michael Chandler
Who’s back: Brendon Lewis (freshman), Grant Ciccarone (freshman)
Who’s new: J.T. Shrout (Tennessee), Drew Carter (freshman), Jordan Woolverton (freshman)
Projected starter: Lewis
Comment: Last week, CU announced that Noyer had entered the transfer portal — an indication he wasn’t likely to win the job. He wound up at Oregon State. The departure whittles the competition to Lewis and Shrout, who spent two seasons in Knoxville. In our view, Lewis is the clear frontrunner. And if the Alamo Bowl was any indication, he could quickly develop into an impact player.
9. Washington State
Jan. ranking: 7
Who’s gone: Gunner Cruz, John Bledsoe
Who’s back: Jayden de Laura (freshman), Victor Gabalis (freshman), Cam Cooper (sophomore)
Who’s new: Jarrett Guarantano (Tennessee), Xavier Ward (freshman)
Projected starter: Guarantano
Comment: Since the January rankings, de Laura has been suspended (DUI related) and then reinstated — a development that fuels skepticism about his ability to lead effectively. (It’s not as if his efficiency was stellar last fall, either.) But Guarantano provides a solid option, having completed more than 60 percent of his passes over the course of four years in the SEC.
10. Arizona
Jan. ranking: 12
Who’s gone: Grant Gunnell, Rhett Rodriguez, Kevin Doyle
Who’s back: Will Plummer (freshman), Luke Ashworth (sophomore), Cameron Fietz (freshman)
Who’s new: Nick Moore (Oregon State), Gunner Cruz (Washington State), Jordan McCloud (USF)
Projected starter: McCloud
Comment: The turnover in Tucson is dizzying, but on balance, Arizona’s options have improved markedly under new coach Jedd Fisch. McCloud, who threw 200 passes last fall for USF, becomes the co-favorite the moment he sets foot on campus this summer. Cruz was a Mike Leach recruit who got caught in the WSU pipeline; he’s inexperienced but can sling it. And don’t discount Plummer as a viable option.
11. Oregon State
Jan. ranking: 9
Who’s gone: Nick Moore
Who’s back: Tristan Gebbia (junior), Chance Nolan (sophomore), Ben Gulbranson (freshman)
Who’s new: Sam Vidlak (freshman), Sam Noyer (Colorado)
Projected starter: Gebbia
Comment: OSU’s slide down the QBCQ rankings reflects the lack of change in Gebbia’s status. The 2020 starter remains our favorite to win the job but still has not been cleared to return from his hamstring injury. Medical approval should come this month, but uncertainty looms over this competition, especially after a strong spring showing by Vidlak. Noyer, the transfer from Colorado, could be the X-factor.
12. Stanford
Jan. ranking: 11
Who’s gone: Davis Mills
Who’s back: Isaiah Sanders (senior), Jack West (sophomore), Dylan Plautz (sophomore) Tanner McKee (freshman), Beau Nelson (freshman)
Who’s new: Ari Patu (freshman)
Projected starter: McKee
Comment: The Cardinal falls to the bottom not because of developments internally but because Arizona used the transfer portal to improve its position. The best option, by far, is McKee, a highly-touted recruit who spent two years on a church mission and threw just seven passes last season. Admittedly, the potential exists for McKee’s play to lift Stanford far above this ranking.
