March Madness is here! Throughout the Arizona men’s basketball team’s run through the postseason, we’ll break down every game the Wildcats play. Here are five takeaways from the UA’s 67-59 loss to Oregon in the semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament on Friday in Las Vegas:
Michael Lev
1. Doubt creeps in
Uh-oh.
You could easily excuse Arizona’s loss to USC to end the regular season. The Wildcats had clinched the Pac-12 regular-season title two nights earlier. They essentially had nothing to play for, and it showed.
This was something different altogether. Arizona took advantage of Oregon center N’Faly Dante’s injury to take a double-digit lead in the first half. The Ducks were more energetic and engaged in the second. They outplayed the Wildcats in just about every facet, outscoring them by an astonishing 18 points.
So now we worry and wonder.
Is this UA team as good as we thought? Are the Wildcats flawed? Are they destined for another early NCAA Tournament exit?
Friday’s game didn’t exactly inspire confidence. As the game shifted in the second half, and T-Mobile Arena quieted, Arizona wilted.
Full-court defensive pressure and a fortunate technical foul call helped the Wildcats cut the lead to four. But they never got it down to one possession. And they never looked like the team that romped through most of the regular season.
The next several days represent the biggest challenge of Tommy Lloyd’s tenure to date. He needs to light a fire under his players while also boosting their confidence.
Arizona is destined to be a 2-seed now, just like last year. The doubters will be out in full force. Based on what we saw Friday, the skepticism is justified. And maybe not such a terrible thing for a team that plays its best when motivated?
2. Off guards
The Wildcats won’t go anywhere if they don’t get better play from their starting backcourt.
Caleb Love and Kylan Boswell were net negatives against Oregon, and Pelle Larsson wasn’t much better.
Arizona guard Caleb Love, center, passes around Oregon forward James Cooper during the first half of their game in the semifinal round of the Pac-12 Tournament Friday, March 15, 2024, in Las Vegas.
Love made only 2 of 11 field goals, and both makes were accidental — a banked 3-pointer and floater that an Oregon player tipped in. Since the first three games of the season, the Pac-12 Player of the Year hadn’t shot under 40% three games in a row … until the last three games. He’s 7 of 34 (20.6%) over that span with 11 turnovers.
We liked Boswell’s non-scoring contributions Thursday vs. USC. Against Oregon, he was a nonfactor.
Boswell made just 1 of 6 shots and finished with four points. He did have three assists and only one turnover, but Lloyd elected to play Jaden Bradley down the stretch.
Boswell has just 11 points over the past three games on 4-of-23 shooting. The Wildcats need more than that. A lot more.
Larsson was 3 of 6 from the field, including 3 of 5 from 3-point range, but he matched Love with a team-high four turnovers. Larsson has 12 turnovers in the past three games. Arizona has averaged 15.3. That’s not gonna cut it.
Oregon center N'Faly Dante (1) guards Arizona guard Jaden Bradley (0) during the second half of their game in the semifinal round of the Pac-12 Tournament Friday, March 15, 2024, in Las Vegas.
3. Dante’s injury, impact
Dante was the single most impactful player on the court.
When he fell on his back just 58 seconds into the game, the score was tied 2-2. When he returned with 7:41 left in the half, Arizona led 25-13.
The Ducks were plus-19 during Dante’s 27 minutes on the floor. Their next-highest plus-minus rating: Jadrian Tracey at plus-10.
Dante had seven “stocks” — three steals and four blocks. He roamed and owned the lane, leading to a stunning stat: Oregon outscored Arizona 34-20 in the paint. That’s typically an area where the Wildcats dominate.
According to StatBroadcast, Arizona was just 4 of 13 on layups. Most of that was Dante’s doing.
Oregon also utilized the 6-11 senior repeatedly as a screener. That high-ball-screen action was extremely effective until the Wildcats started trapping the ball-handler. By that point, though, the Ducks had flipped the scoreboard.
It wasn’t as if Dante’s counterpart, Oumar Ballo, was ineffective inside. Ballo had a team-high 14 points and made all five of his field goal attempts.
The rest of the Wildcats were just 8 of 23 (34.8%) on shots taken inside the arc.
4. Struggles at the stripe
For a team that typically scores a ton of points, Arizona is an average foul-shooting club.
Entering Friday, the Wildcats ranked 167th nationally with a free throw percentage of 72.1%. They were 15th in attempts per game at 23.6.
Arizona made 18 of 28 foul shots against Oregon, a rate of 64.3%. Love, an 87.1% shooter, was just 1 of 4. Ballo was 4 of 9. Keshad Johnson was 1 of 3. The rest of the team was a perfect 12 of 12.
Friday marked the third game in a row in which the Wildcats shot less than 70% from the foul line. I’m not saying it’s a problem heading into the NCAA Tournament. But I’m not saying it’s not.
Ever regular aside from Ballo was at 70% or higher entering Friday. It’s not breaking news that Ballo has struggled from the line this season. We’ll be holding our collective breath every time he steps to the stripe from here on out.
Arizona center Oumar Ballo (11) and forward Keshad Johnson (16) celebrate after a play against Oregon during the first half of their game in the semifinal round of the Pac-12 Tournament Friday, March 15, 2024, in Las Vegas.
It was encouraging to see him make his last two attempts, though, and they were arguably the most pressure-packed foul shots Ballo has taken this season. The Wildcats were down 53-44 at the time with 7:50 remaining.
Hopefully that will give Ballo a confidence boost heading into next week.
5. Mo-mentum?
Did anything positive happen Friday night in Vegas?
I’ve got one for you: Freshman Motiejus Krivas played a lot better than in the quarterfinals vs. USC.
Krivas’ final numbers were modest: six points and three rebounds in eight minutes. But the Wildcats were plus-7 in those eight minutes, and he was one of only two UA players in the black in the plus-minus category. (Bradley was also plus-7.)
Although he made only 2 of 5 shots from the field, Krivas was aggressive. When he caught the ball in the post, he didn’t hesitate to make his move.
Krivas is far from a finished product; as mentioned Thursday, he clearly needs a full offseason in the weight room and in Lloyd’s big-man lab.
But it isn’t inconceivable that Arizona will need him before then. Ballo has been the Wildcats’ steadiest player; he had yet another double-double Friday, plus a season-high five blocks. But Ballo could get in foul trouble at some point. If the other team has a legit big, Krivas will have to step up.
Ready or not, do-or-die basketball is here.
