It’s too bad the Territorial Cup game is on Saturday because we have something of a “Freaky Friday” situation going on this year.
Arizona and Arizona State seemingly have switched bodies. The Wildcats were expected to be where the Sun Devils are, and vice-versa.
So it goes in the increasingly unpredictable world of college football, where it’s easier than ever to turn over your roster — and you’re never entirely sure what the outcome of that chemistry experiment will be.
In last year’s Territorial Cup, Arizona stomped ASU 59-23 to cap a 9-3 regular season. The Sun Devils finished 3-9.
Fast-forward a year. After being ranked 21st in the preseason Associated Press poll, Arizona has stumbled to a 4-7 record. ASU is 9-2, ranked 16th and has a path to the Big 12 Championship Game — and maybe even the expanded College Football Playoff.
What’s changed over the past 12 months? In this week’s “Cats Stats,” we’ll examine some critical areas where the Sun Devils have elevated their play — and the Wildcats have regressed.
Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo runs with the ball as BYU defensive end Isaiah Bagnah dives to make a tackle during the first half of their game on Nov. 23, 2024, in Tempe.
Ground and pound
ASU has made a massive leap in the run game. The Sun Devils are averaging 187.2 yards per game (32nd nationally), up from 111.9 last year (113th).
You might think that’s strictly because they’ve turned their fortunes around and have been playing with the lead a lot. That’s not necessarily the case.
ASU has been involved in seven one-score games (and has a 6-1 record in those contests). The Sun Devils have 244 rushing attempts while leading and 219 while tied or trailing, per CFBStats.com.
ASU has become more efficient when it rushes the ball, upping its per-carry average from 3.59 yards to 4.45 yards. Even after adjusting for sacks — the Sun Devils have allowed half as many as a year ago; more on this later — the difference is similar: 4.39 yards vs. 4.84 yards.
Senior tailback Cam Skattebo has 1,221 yards and has accounted for 59.3% of ASU’s rushing output. He is a much-improved player in his second year in Tempe.
Skattebo has upped his average per rush from 4.8 yards to 5.4. He’s done that largely on his own, increasing his average yards after contact from 3.01 yards per attempt to 3.74, according to Pro Football Focus.
ASU also is getting rushing contributions from its quarterbacks. Sam Leavitt and Jeff Sims have combined for 426 net rushing yards. Four QBs combined for just 37 net rushing yards for the Sun Devils last year.
Arizona, meanwhile, has experienced a drop of more than 30 yards per game on the ground — from 139.7 to 108.6 (118th nationally).
Some of that has to do with playing from behind a bunch. Some of that has to do with the offensive scheme. Much of it has to do with a banged-up offensive line. Speaking of which ...
Stability, continuity
Nothing better underscores the difference between this year’s ASU and UA squads than their offensive lines.
The Sun Devils have stayed healthy for the most part, and their starting unit has remained largely intact. The Wildcats have been beset by injuries and have been scrambling to put a competent quintet together.
Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt (10) looks to make a pass as BYU cornerback Jakob Robinson (0) closes in to defend during the second half of their game on Nov. 23, 2024, in Tempe.
Four ASU linemen — left tackle Josh Atkins, left guard Ben Coleman, center Leif Fautanu and right tackle Max Iheanachor — have started every game at the same position. Arizona has no such players who can make that claim.
One UA offensive lineman has started every game — tackle Jonah Savaiinaea. That streak could end Saturday as Savaiinaea is questionable because of a lower-leg injury suffered late last week at TCU.
If Savaiinaea — who has yet to miss a game in his three-year UA career — can’t play, Arizona will be forced to utilize its seventh starting combination this season. ASU has had three O-line combos.
Is it any wonder ASU has rushed the ball better and reduced its sacks allowed by half?
New-and-improved QB1
Leavitt, a redshirt freshman who transferred to ASU from Michigan State, has been a difference-maker for the Sun Devils.
Leavitt has an 18-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 10 games — a massive upgrade over ASU’s combined 7-13 mark last season. He also has completed 61.5% of his passes — a middle-of-the-pack figure in the Big 12 but more than six percentage points higher than last year’s QB collective managed (55.4%).
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita (11) takes the snap during the first half of the Wildcats’ game against TCU on Nov. 23, 2024, in Fort Worth, Texas.
As mentioned, Leavitt also provides a running element. (He’d have even more rushing yards if Kenny Dillingham hadn’t instructed him to retreat in a misguided attempt to run out the clock last week.) He’s better at avoiding sacks than three of the four quarterbacks who played for ASU last year. Leavitt has a pressure-to-sack rate (P2S%) of 13.1%, per PFF. Only Trenton Borguet (9.7%) had a better rate among Sun Devils signal-callers in 2023.
Leavitt’s UA counterpart, Noah Fifita, has dropped off in most statistical categories. His completion percentage has fallen from 72.4% to 61.3%; his yards per attempt have slipped from 8.6 to 7.1; and his TD-INT ratio has gone from 25-6 to 17-12.
Fifita’s 12 interceptions are tied for third most nationally. He and the Wildcats have played from behind far too often — the offense is just as much to blame for that as the defense — and he has faced considerably more pressure than a year ago. Per PFF, Fifita has been under pressure on 34.5% of his dropbacks this season, up from 27.8% last year.
Arizona State defensive back Javan Robinson (12) returns an interception against BYU as defensive back Shamari Simmons (7) looks to block during the second half of their game on Nov. 23, 2024, in Tempe.
Turnover turnaround
Leavitt’s carefulness with the ball — and ASU’s ability to take it away — has enabled the Sun Devils to rise to the top of the Big 12 in a critical category: turnover margin.
ASU is plus-10 through 11 games, tied for the 12th-best mark in the nation; the Sun Devils were minus-11 last year, worst in the Pac-12 and 130th nationally.
ASU has done it by inverting its interceptions.
Last year, the Sun Devils threw 14 picks (including one by Skattebo) while snagging only five (fewest in the Pac-12). This year, ASU has thrown five interceptions and picked off opponents 13 times (third most in the Big 12). Four Sun Devils — Javan Robinson, Caleb McCullough, Xavion Alford and Keith Abney II — have two interceptions apiece.
Arizona has thrown four more picks (12) than its opponents (eight) this year. The Wildcats finished last year with two more interceptions thrown (11-9). But four of those came in one game (Week 2 at Mississippi State) by Jayden de Laura. Fifita generally protected the ball after becoming the starter.
Arizona had a plus-5 turnover margin in 13 games last year thanks to a strong finish — plus-9 over the final three games, including plus-5 in the Alamo Bowl. The Wildcats are minus-3 through 11 games this year.
