Although he’s coached here before, even recently, we’re still getting to know Brent Brennan.
We’ve learned a lot about his character and what he values in a program. Culture sits atop that list.
On the field? What the actual product will look like remains something of a mystery, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
In the season premiere of “Cats Stats,” ahead of No. 21 Arizona’s opener vs. New Mexico on Saturday night, we’re going to explore the numbers that matter the most in Brennan’s view.
We asked him which statistics, in his experience, have the greatest impact on the outcome of games. There are more to choose from than ever these days, he noted, with the proliferation of advanced metrics.
Brennan eventually settled on three that are pretty old-school: turnover margin, third downs and red-zone efficiency. What follows is a look at how Brennan’s former team, San Jose State, fared in those areas, as well as how his current squad has done in recent seasons.
Turnover margin
In 2022, the Spartans went from worst to first in turnover margin in the Mountain West Conference. They repeated last year (technically tied with Wyoming) with the same plus-11 margin.
SJSU also ranked in the top four in the MWC in takeaways each of the past two seasons (21 in 2023, 20 in ’22). It’s important to note that Brennan spends most of his time coaching the offense and brought only two defensive coaches here from San Jose — neither of whom is the coordinator. Duane Akina will run the UA defense in 2024 after serving as a secondary coach last year — although he had an undeniable imprint in ’23, especially in the defensive backfield.
Arizona’s 19 takeaways were its most since 2017 (25) and more than three times as many as it had just two years earlier (six). That total was buoyed by the Alamo Bowl, which wasn’t just an extra game but an extra game in which the Wildcats had six takeaways.
Arizona defensive coordinator Duane Akina directs his players during a fall preseason practice at the Dick Tomey Practice Fields.
That performance enabled Arizona to finish on the plus side in turnover margin (plus-5), also for the first time since ’17. The Wildcats were plus-9 over their final three games and plus-10 in the nine games quarterback Noah Fifita started. They were minus-5 in Jayden de Laura’s four starts.
Third downs
On the offensive side of the ball, both programs showed steady progression in this area.
After converting just 33.5% of their third downs in 2021, SJSU improved to 36.7% in ’22 and 45.5% last year. That figure ranked fifth in the Mountain West and was the highest in Brennan’s seven seasons in San Jose.
Arizona ranked 11th in the Pac-12 in third-down conversion rate at 32.6% in 2021, Jedd Fisch’s first season as head coach. The Wildcats improved to 42.2% in 2022 (seventh) and 48.8% last year (second).
One of the reasons they were so proficient on third down: Fifita’s ascent to the starting role. Unlike many of his QB peers, Fifita is unfazed by the pressure of third-down situations. His completion rate was actually higher on third downs (72.9%) last season than first (72.2%) or second (72.3%). His TD-INT rate was better as well (7-1 vs. 17-5).
Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita participates in drills during a fall preseason practice at the Dick Tomey Practice Fields on Aug. 7.
Arizona improved in third-down defense last season, allowing a conversion rate of 41.5% — down from 47.8% the previous season. (The Wildcats held opponents to a 37.4% rate in 2021 — second best in the Pac-12 — under one-and-done DC Don Brown.)
With Akina basically running the same system as predecessor Johnny Nansen — and key starters such as Jacob Manu, Gunner Maldonado, Dalton Johnson, Treydan Stukes and Tacario Davis returning — the Wildcats have the potential to take another leap. Ideally, you’d like to be below 40% in third-down defense.
San Jose State hit that mark three times (2020-22) during Brennan’s tenure. The Spartans backslid to 44.8% last year, second worst in the MWC.
Red zone
Similar to third-down conversation rate, both SJSU and Arizona transformed red-zone offense from a weakness to a strength in recent seasons.
Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan turns to catch a pass from quarterback Noah Fifita during a fall preseason practice at the Dick Tomey Practice Fields on the UA campus on Aug. 7.
After scoring touchdowns on just 50% of their red-zone opportunities in 2020, the Spartans worked the problem. That figure climbed to 52.6% in 2021, 59.6% in ’22 and 61.4% last year.
Arizona had the worst red-zone offense in the nation in 2021, ranking dead last with a TD rate of 30.8%. Fisch and his staff made a concerted effort to improve it by devoting extensive practice time to red-zone work and adding players such as de Laura and receivers Jacob Cowing and Tetairoa McMillan.
The Wildcats nearly doubled their TD rate the following season, landing at 59.3%. They were even better in 2023, finishing at 66.7%.
If practice time is any indication, Brennan and his staff are making the red zone a top priority. Arizona spent many periods during training camp working exclusively in that part of the field.
The defense gets work in those scenarios too, and it made a difference last year for the Wildcats. After yielding touchdown rates of 76.3% and 79% the previous two seasons — both worst in the Pac-12 and bottom three nationally — Arizona improved to 56% in 2023. That was the fourth-best mark in the Pac-12, which had three of the top 12 offenses in the country (Oregon, USC, Washington) and multiple NFL-bound quarterbacks.
SJSU struggled to defend the red zone last season, allowing a TD rate of 82.1% — worst in the nation. Brennan couldn’t have been pleased about that. But, again, defense isn’t his purview. And aside from the style of play up front, there’s minimal schematic carryover on that side of the ball.
When you look at all of the numbers in the areas Brennan emphasized, it’s pretty clear that his teams execute in those critical situations more often than not. He also inherits a team that now knows what it takes to win.
A simulation of Arizona football's season opener against New Mexico at Arizona Stadium in EA Sports College Football 25. (Video by Justin Spears / Twitch)
