Greg Hansen's guide to the '23 College Football season (including Arizona's path to a bowl)

The Star's longtime columnist with his annual guide to the 2023 college football season, including: Arizona's "home" on Pac-12 Network ... how UA head coaches in their third season stack up over time ... the Cats' Polynesian connection ... best game days in the Pac-12 ... and predictions galore. 

Best year for Pac-12 QBs? We'll see...

College football analysts who suggest 2023 will be "the greatest year for quarterbacks in Pac-12 history'' may be a bit premature.

It would be extraordinarily difficult for the league's ballyhooed "Super Seven'' to surpass the 1988 threesome of USC's Rodney Peete, UCLA's Troy Aikman and Washington State's Timm Rosenbach.

Peete finished No. 2 in the Heisman Trophy balloting, Aikman was No. 3 and Rosenbach was No. 7. Moreover, Aikman became the No.1 overall NFL draft pick, Rosenbach was the No. 2 overall selection and Peete went on to play 16 seasons in the NFL.

I consider '88 an even better season for Pac-10 quarterbacks than the 2003-04 years, when USC's Matt Leinart, Cal's Aaron Rodgers, ASU's Andrew Walter, Oregon's Kellen Clemens, OSU's Derek Anderson and Washington's Cody Pickett all went on to become NFL quarterbacks.

It doesn't mean the Class of '23 won't make a run to displace the Aikman-Peete-Rosenbach trio in what will be the final football season of Pac-12 football as we know it. The "Super Seven'' have absorbing stories. We've had time to get to know their names and faces. Their backgrounds and career trajectories have been fully unpredictable. For example:

• Oregon's Bo Nix of Pinson, Alabama, committed to play for Auburn in January 2018.

• Washington's Michael Penix of Tampa, Florida, committed to play for Indiana in December 2017.

• WSU's Cameron Ward of San Antonio committed to small-school Incarnate Word in late 2019.

• Arizona's Jayden de Laura of Honolulu committed to play at Washington State in October, 2019.

• USC's Caleb Williams of Washington D.C. committed to play for Oklahoma in July, 2020.

• Utah's Cameron Rising of Thousand Oaks, Calif., committed to play for Texas in April 2017.

• Oregon State's D.J. Uiagalelei of Bellflower, Calif., committed to play for Clemson in May 2019.

Arizona actively recruited Uiagalelei, Penix and Rising to no avail.

It could be that de Laura will become Arizona's most productive quarterback ever, but his chances of becoming the first Wildcat to be the All-Pac-12 quarterback are remote.

Arizona a Pac-12 Networks regular

Over the past two seasons, 14 of Arizona's 24 football games have been broadcast to the limited audiences on the Pac-12 Networks. Wildcat fans have surely grumbled about the "Pac-12 After Dark'' packaging, some seen by as few as 75,000 viewers.

The Wildcats were so lightly thought of — routinely bypassed for secondary-type broadcasts on FS1, ESPN2 and ESPNU — that in 2022 their so-called marquee games against Oregon, USC, Utah and Washington were relegated to the Pac-12 Networks.

UA fans are surely hoping for a new way to watch Wildcat football — a higher profile at an earlier hour — when they move to the Big 12 Conference in 2024. What can be expected?

For example, Texas Tech, which is anything but a national football program, last season played nine of its 12 games on Big 12 partners ESPN and Fox. The other three Texas Tech games were broadcast on "Big 12 Now,'' which is the ESPN-plus streaming service.

It's an encouraging sign, but remember the expanded Big 12 will be forced to find network space for two to four additional football games each week beginning in 2024. Being exiled to "Big 12 Now'' probably will have similar viewership to the Pac-12 Network.

Fisch's third year fits UA pattern for success

After finishing 1-11 and 5-7 in his first two Arizona seasons, coach Jedd Fisch is entering what oddsmakers would likely say is a strong probability of producing a winning season. History backs such a theory that Year 3 is the end of a rebuilding process at Arizona.

Of Arizona's 14 head football coaches since 1935, 11 combined for a 78-40-4 record (66%), far above the school's 52% winning percentage in that period. Here's how season No. 3 has gone for Fisch's predecessors:

1935: Tex Oliver, 7-2

1941: Miles Casteel, 7-3

1951: Robert Winslow, 6-5

1955: Warren Woodson, 5-4-1

1961: Jim LaRue, 8-1-1

1971: Bob Weber, 5-6

1975: Jim Young, 9-2

1979: Tony Mason, 6-5-1

1982: Larry Smith, 6-4-1

1989: Dick Tomey, 8-4

2002: John Mackovic, 2-10

2006: Mike Stoops, 6-6

2014: Rich Rodriguez, 10-4

2020: Kevin Sumlin, 0-5

The two big losers of the group, Mackovic and Sumlin, had this in common: Both were recycled coaches who had been fired by elite schools Texas and Texas A&M.

A breakthrough for Coach Prime? Maybe not

When Colorado hired NFL Hall of Famer Deion Sanders to be its football coach last winter, expectations soared in Boulder. But if Pac-12 history is an indication, Sanders may struggle rather than soar in 2023.

The two most high-profile men to be hired as Pac-12 head coaches the last 50 years both flamed out:

• in 1982, Cal hired its 1959 Rose Bowl hero, quarterback Joe Kapp — an outspoken, personality-first alumnus who had become a Super Bowl QB in the NFL. The 44-year-old Kapp had a strong first season, 7-4, but then tanked, going 5-5-1, 2-9, 4-7 and 2-9 before being fired in 1986. He never coached again.

• In 1992, Stanford hired NFL Super Bowl legend Bill Walsh, who had previously coached the Cardinal to a 17-7 record in the late ’70s before the San Francisco 49ers poached him.

Returning to Stanford at 62, Walsh went 17-17-1 over three seasons and retired rather than attempting to rebuild the Cardinal after going 3-7-1 in 1994.

Polynesian connection big part of Cats' climb

When Arizona fired Rich Rodriguez after the 2017 season, the Wildcats' roster included four Polynesian players. Now, under the uber-aggressive Fisch, Arizona has 21 players of Polynesian lineage and four assistant coaches of Poynesian ancestry: Johnny Nansen, Duane Akina, Jason Kafusi and Jordan Paopao.

No other Pac-12 school has more than one Polynesian assistant coach. It is believed Arizona has the highest number of Polynesian assistant coaches in Power 5 football, tied with BYU's staff, which includes Justin Ena, Fesi Sitake, Sione Po'uha and Harvey Unga.

Why is this news?

During the so-called glory years of Arizona football (1986-1999) Tomey aggressively began recruiting in the Polynesian communities of Southern California, Hawaii and Samoa, which became a difference maker. The Wildcats were often the Pac-10 leader with Polynesian players during that period.

And they weren't just fill-in players. Those who made either the first- or second-team All-Pac-10 squads, or honorable mention, included Joe Salavea, Edwin Mulitalo, Steven Grace, Joe Tafoya, Nick Fineanganofo, Van Tuinei, Manuia Savea and Keoni Fraser, along with QB George Malauulu.

After Tomey's departure in 2000, Arizona's recruiting in the Polynesian community diminished greatly until Fisch was hired.

Much of Utah's rise to power in college football can be traced to coach Kyle Whittingham's all-in decision to recruit the Polynesian football communities of Utah, SoCal and in Hawaii. This year, the Utes have 31 players of Polynesian descent listed on their roster.

Arizona is closing the gap. Recently, the Polynesian Football Hall of Fame named six Arizona players to its 2023 Player of the Year Watch List: Jacob Manu, Jonah Saviinaaea, Jayden de Laura, Tetairoa McMillan, Sio Nofoagatoto'a and Tiaoaii Savea.

Pac-12 game day: Start with Ralphie

I began covering Pac-10 football in 1978, a beat writer for Oregon and Oregon State, and since then calculated that I have spent about 150 Saturdays in conference road stadiums, at least 10 at each school, except relative newbie Colorado.

If I could choose to spend an autumn Saturday afternoon at any of those campuses, here's how I'd start: My favorite game-day experiences:

1. Folsom Field, Colorado: The Buffaloes have been dreadful for most of the last decade, but each visit to Folsom Field has been worth the trip, starting with Ralphie the Buffaloes' lap around the field before the game and at halftime. Magic. The stadium is built in the foothills of the Flatiron Mountains, in the middle of the CU campus. Beauty everywhere. A true 'big event'' feel. Even the worst CU teams draw 40,000 fans. It's a trip back to the 1980s and 1990s.

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2. Autzen Stadium, Oregon: It always feels like football weather in Eugene. Yes, it's often chilly and rainy. But Ducks fans care, and you can't say that about half the league's fan bases.

3. Rice-Eccles Stadium, Utah: The Utes pack ’em in, full house after full house. You can avoid traffic and ride the light rail system to the stadium. The Wasatch Mountains offer an autumn leaves background, and the Utes MUSS section — the students — frequently belt out the conference's best fight song: I Am A Utah Man, Sir.

4. Husky Stadium, Washington. It's not so much the panoramic views of Lake Washington. It's the sense of tradition and the rare vibe that college football in an NFL city matters just as much or more. The chill, the eternal drizzleworld atmosphere, beats any day at hot, often vacant and who-cares Sun Devil Stadium.

5. Reser Stadium, Oregon State: For more than 40 years — through some of the worst football imaginable – the Beavers and their fans have stuck it out. There is a rule that no one can close the windows in the press box, even if it's 38 degrees and rainy. Bring it. It's football, not the closed-in atmosphere at Arizona Stadium. And when the Beavers are good, as they are this season, it's an all-in community feeling you rarely get at UCLA, USC, Cal or Stanford.

Go west, young man. Or better yet, Texas.

Arizona has forever mined California as its No. 1 football recruiting turf. Think of the legendary football names in UA history, beginning with Art Luppino, the Cactus Comet, hometown: LaJolla, California.

It continues from there: Jackrabbit Joe Hernandez, Bakersfield, California; Walt "Hoss'' Nielson, Los Angeles; Max Zendejas, Chino Hills, California; Tom Tunnicliffe, Burbank, California; Tedy Bruschi, Roseville, California; and don't forget the Helix High School (San Diego) connection of all-conference Wildcats Chuck Cecil, Brandon Sanders and Allen Durden.

Starting immediately, the Big 12-bound Wildcats are likely to make Texas its No. 2 recruiting destination, which will be a significant change. The ’23 Wildcats have just six Texans on their roster: Tyler Loop, Michael Wiley, D.J. Warnell, Arian Parrish, Dalton Johnson and Canyon Moses.

The top Texans to play at Arizona? I'd say quarterback Nick Foles, receiver Mike Thomas, defensive lineman Earl Mitchell and fullback Kelvin Eafon. The top Texas athletes in UA history? Probably All-American baseball catcher Alan Zinter and swimming All-American Lara Jackson, both from El Paso.

Texas has never been a hot spot for UA recruiting, in any sport. Mike Candrea deployed just one Texan in his softball starting lineups over three decades: pitcher Alyssa Denham. Lute Olson spent a bit more time in Texas, using Joseph Blair, Nic Wise, Jawann McClellan, Fendi Onobun and Jarvis Kelley.

That will change. Texas has four Big 12 schools, and it seems inevitable that Arizona will concentrate more on recruiting that state.

Here's how Arizona ranks among Big 12 teams (and future Big12 teams) with Texans on their 2023 roster:

• Texas Tech, 87

• TCU, 79

• Baylor, 77

• Houston, 69

• Oklahoma State, 36

• Arizona State, 18

• Utah, 15

• Colorado 13

• Arizona, 6

Schedules 2023: Good, bad, ugly

Did you realize that Georgia doesn't play Alabama or LSU this season (at least not until the SEC championship)? That's nuts. It'd be like USC dodging Utah and Oregon.

Mighty Alabama might have the weakest non-conference schedule of Power 5 football, meeting Middle Tennessee State, South Florida and Chattanooga. Next weakest? It's blueblood LSU, with a sisters-of-the-poor schedule of Grambling, Army and Georgia State.

Then comes national champ Georgia, which scheduled UAB, Tennesee-Martin and Ball State this year.

Shouldn't that type of dodgeball affect their CFP rankings?

The Pac-12's non-conference schedule of bravado belongs to Utah. Kyle Whittingham's club is playing Florida and Baylor. It's only walkover is against Weber State.

Washington also deserves credit for taking on non-conference big boys Michigan State and Boise State.

The most limp Pac-12 non-conference schedule? ASU invites its fans to sit through non-conference games with Southern Utah and Fresno State, while Arizona is a step below with home games against NAU and UTEP. But USC is in the same ballpark, scheduling home games against San Jose State and Nevada.

Michigan has national championship hopes, but the Wolverines are tip-toeing through the non-conference schedule by playing East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green.

What, Appalachian State wasn't available?

One man's Pac-12 forecast: Take the Beavers

Here's how I see the last season of Pac-12 football, one in which there is so much parity in the first division that it seems unlikely anyone will finish in the AP Top 10.

1. Oregon State, 7-2: From the ground up, Jonathan Smith has quietly built a Top-25 program in five years. The Beavers won 10 games last season and should at least match that this season. OSU seems capable of winning three conference road games (Colorado, Arizona, WSU) and gets Utah and Washington at the newly-remodeled, $150 million-dollar-plus Reser Stadium, which should be packed each week. Those are pick-'em games. Another bonus? It misses USC. It says here that the Beavers will go to Oregon's Autzen Stadium on Nov. 24 with the Pac-12 title at stake.

2. USC, 7-2: Anything less than a 7-2 conference record by the NIL-blessed Trojans would be a failure.

3. Oregon, 6-3: The Ducks take on all the powers — Washington, OSU, Utah, USC — and that'll take a toll.

4. Washington, 6-3: The Huskies are Top-25 worthy, but closer to 25 than 10.

5. Utah, 6-3: Quarterback Cam Rising's injury status is likely the difference between another conference title and a better record.

6. Arizona, 5-4: Jedd Fisch's team has got to pull off a mighty upset to crack .500 in the Pac-12. That upset? A late September shocker over Washington.

7. UCLA, 4-5: Chip Kelly has become a fair to middlin' coach since leaving Oregon a decade ago.

8. Washington State, 4-5: Maybe the best eighth-place team in Power 5 football.

9. Cal, 3-6: Justin Wilcox can't quite get over the .500 hump.

10. ASU, 3-6: No team in the league is more unpredictable than the Sun Devils.

11. Colorado, 2-7: It's not going to be that easy, Coach Prime.

12. Stanford, 1-8: No wonder David Shaw walked away from the Cardinal coaching job. The talent has ebbed.

How the Wildcats will finish, game by game

Since Arizona joined the Pac-8 in 1978, the Wildcats have mostly played the same tune: Win a game no one expects you to win, and lose a game long marked in the victory column.

Fisch continued that funky rhythm last year, upsetting an 8-1 UCLA team in Los Angeles and getting blown out 49-31 at Cal. You can take that unsettling pattern back more than 40 years. In 1981, Arizona beat No. 1 USC and lost to a 2-8-1 Oregon team a month later.

Here's how I see this season's attempt at qualifying for a bowl game:

• Arizona 55, NAU 7. Payback, right?

• Mississippi State 31, Arizona 27. Winning on SEC turf is a big ask.

• Arizona 47, UTEP 10. Last chance to play a puffball.

• Arizona 38, Stanford 27. The Cardinal aren't good enough to qualify as a "statement win,'' but it'll be embraced by UA fans everywhere.

• Arizona 31, Washington 30. Get your ticket now. The game of the year at Arizona Stadium.

• USC 38, Arizona 24. No-brainer.

• Washington State 38, Arizona 33. Cougars are a tough out, especially in the autumn chill of Pullman.

• Oregon State 34, Arizona 31. Winning in Tucson will stamp the Beavers as legit.

• Arizona 42, UCLA 27. The start to one of Arizona's best final months of football.

• Arizona 30, Colorado 24. Getting bowl eligible on Coach Prime's time.

• Utah 37, Arizona 28. No disgrace losing to Coach Whitt and the Utes.

• Arizona 44, ASU 31. That 70-7 billboard on Interstate 10 will be fully outdated.