The Waiting Game: NBA draft decisions still up in the air
Kaleb Tarczewski and Stanley Johnson are now on Day 22 of their to-stay-or-turn-pro voyage, which is longer than any past Arizona basketball player with a similar option.
Richard Jefferson announced his decision five days after the 2001 Final Four. Chase Budinger made a turn-pro decision 10 days after the 2009 Sweet 16. Even Jerryd Bayless, who was surely gone after one season, made an announcement 16 days after the 2008 season.
Until Saturday, the longest announcement required 21 days, by Andre Iguodala in 2004.
Here’s the value of Tarczewski that often goes unspoken: According to Drew H. Bailey of “The Sports Gene,” there are only 659 American men between the ages of 20 and 39 who are taller than 6-11. Of that group, 66 are in the NBA.
Tarczewski, who is listed at 7 feet, thus has a 10 percent chance to reach the NBA strictly on his size. Bailey’s research shows that there are 15.7 million American males between 5-11 to 6-2, which is T.J. McConnell’s bracket. There are 55 NBA players of that height this season.
That means 0.00035 percent of American men in McConnell’s size bracket reach the NBA. The odds are in Zeus’ favor.
