State jobless rate unchanged — for now

PHOENIX — The state seasonally adjusted jobless rate remained at 4.5% in January.

On an unadjusted basis, the Tucson metro area has an unemployment rate of 4.5% in January, up from 4.1% in December but down from 5.4% in January 2019.

New figures from the state Office of Economic Opportunity show Arizona shed 47,300 jobs between December and January.

But Doug Walls, the agency’s market research director, said that is expected this time of year as the demand for seasonal workers declined. In fact, he said, in the past decade the state has lost an average of 51,000 jobs between December and January.

The seasonal nature of the declines is reflected in the fact that the number of people working for employment services — essentially temporary workers — dropped by 8,300. And direct employment by general merchandise stores declined by 5,700.

Overall, though, state private sector employment is up by 67,700 from the same time last year. That includes strong growth in health care, which added 14,100 workers since January 2019.

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Walls said the January figure show no effect from COVID-19 as they reflect employment in the second week of that month. He also said that the latest figures of first-time unemployment claims also show no change in patterns.

He said, though, his agency will watch not only those numbers as they get updated but also the latest consumer confidence data to determine what effect the virus — and canceled events — may have on state employment and, by extension, the economy.

Walls also said that average hourly wages for private employers in Arizona for January were $27.02 compared with $28.56 for the rest of the country.

But in January a voter-approved increase in the minimum wage, from $11 an hour to $12, kicked in, even as the federal minimum wage remained at $7.25 an hour. That not only affected those at the bottom of the income scale but likely pushed up those who already were making at or near $12 an hour.

The result is that average wages in Arizona are up 4.2% over the same time last year, versus a 3.0% national increase.