• BRUCE R. MILLER bmiller@siouxcityjournal.com

Bruce Miller, Sioux City Journal entertainment reporter, says this year two musicals have been nominated for Best Picture - the first time that has happened in 60 years.

You won’t guess who’s going to win the Academy Award this year.

No, really. You won’t guess because it has been such an “all over the map” awards season.

Listen now and subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | RSS Feed | SoundStack

Last spring, “Dune Part 2” seemed like a strong contender. “Wicked” did, too. Then independent films like “Anora” and “Nickel Boys” had their moments. Toward the end of the year, “The Brutalist,” “Conclave” and “A Complete Unknown” checked in.

Throughout the parade of contenders, “Emilia Perez” stood firm and practically insisted on a Best Picture nomination.

Now, it’s anyone’s game – this is like the year “La La Land” was announced as the winner and “Moonlight” got the prize.

When the 97th Academy Awards are announced, expect surprises. Everywhere.

Only two categories have solid leaders. The rest are open to debate.

Let’s start with the sure things:

Kieran Culkin, left, is likely to win supporting actor honors for "A Real Pain."

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Kieran Culkin came out of the chute early on and has won every prize put in his lane. If he doesn’t win for playing the unpredictable cousin in “A Real Pain,” there won’t be justice. His fellow nominees would win only if their films did a Sherman’s march to Best Picture.

Kieran Culkin's spontaneity fuels Jesse Eisenberg's new film 'A Real Pain'

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is cut-and-dried, too. Zoe Saldana, a good sport in dozens of films that haven’t deserved her talent, is the force that carries “Emilia Perez.” She’s not the title character, but the attorney who represents her. And the role features so much Spanish it’s likely to win Best International Feature Film.

Her biggest challenger is Ariana Grande in “Wicked.” She stole that film and could be the winner NEXT year when Part II emerges. Now, though, it’s Saldana’s.

"The Brutalist" is a top contender for the best picture Oscar, and Adrien Brody is potentially unbeatable in the lead actor category.

BEST ACTOR

Adrien Brody has several wins for his expansive work in “The Brutalist.” But the part has plenty in common with the role that won him an Oscar several decades ago. So, should he win again? Or give it to a newcomer?

The most likely to upset is Timothee Chalamet for “A Complete Unknown,” the Bob Dylan story. Chalamet represents a new generation in film, is about as user-friendly as young actors get and has been around long enough to prove he’s not a flash in the pan. If “Complete Unknown” has a chance anywhere, it’s in this category. Yes, he hasn’t won the lead-up prizes, but that doesn’t mean he can’t take this. A Chalamet win would be in the Academy’s best interest. We still think Brody will tower, but it’s fun to speculate on what if.

(An outside chance? Ralph Fiennes has been a groomsman for years and, if “Conclave” edges into the Best Picture prize, it could carry him with it.)

BEST ACTRESS

Here’s where things get sticky. Demi Moore has that old Hollywood glow that played well at the Golden Globes. As a result, she became the front-runner but, as Glenn Close will tell you, that doesn’t always get the gold. She has strong competition from Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”) and Mikey Madison (“Anora”). Only Karla Sofia Gascon (“Emilia Perez”) is out of the running and that’s because some mean-spirited tweets cast a pall on her candidacy. Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”) has another chance next year when the second part of her film is in contention.

So that brings it down to Moore and? This is where the surprise comes. Madison was a frontrunner after her film scored big but then Moore’s horror film, “The Substance,” started getting traction and she used its storyline to talk about bigger issues in Hollywood. She gave a great speech at the Golden Globes and now expects the win. But Oscar has been fickle, particularly in the Best Actress category, and could crown Madison or Torres the winner. Moore’s film, “The Substance,” clearly falls in the horror category and doesn’t deserve the attention. That means one of the other two will win. Safe money says Moore. History says Madison.

Ani (Mikey Madison) enjoys her engagement to Vanya (Mark Eydelshteyn) in "Anora."

BEST PICTURE

This is down to three films: “The Brutalist,” “Conclave” and “Anora.” While “Brutalist” would be the prudent choice (it’s sprawling, gorgeous and cost less than a Netflix comedy), it hasn’t won over crafts people. “Anora” won the Producers Guild and Directors Guild prizes, putting it in contention for the biggie. “Conclave,” though, has its supporters and could be the surprise win. We’re going with “Anora,” if only because it was so original and Sean Baker is such a good director. Watch the Best Editing category and if this wins there, it’ll be tough to get “Anora” out of your system.

Ralph Fiennes stars as Cardinal Lawrence in "Conclave." 

IN OTHER CATEGORIES

Look for “Wicked” to dominate sets and costumes; “The Substance” could win in makeup and “Emilia Perez” will have a great shot at International Film and Best Song.

Bottom line: Don’t bet the farm on anything.

The 97th Academy Awards airs March 2 on ABC. Conan O’Brien hosts.

___

Become a #ThisIsTucson member! Your contribution helps our team bring you stories that keep you connected to the community. Become a member today.

 Bruce Miller is editor of the Sioux City Journal.