July 21, 2023.
Remember that date. “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” were released that day, drawing moviegoers back to theaters.
“Barbenheimer,” as the double feature became known, proved prophetic for Oscar Sunday.
Both films were nominated for Best Picture. Both are considered strong contenders in a number of categories.
But will they win?
That’s the guessing game that emerges as other contenders have entered the fray.
“Killers of the Flower Moon” seemed likeliest to become king of the hill. Then, “Anatomy of a Fall” and “Poor Things" turned up.
Now, it’s a matter of staying power. And both “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer” have it.
By category, here’s who’s likely to take home Oscars in 2024.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da’Vine Joy Randolph has won practically everything for her touching work as a cook in “The Holdovers.” She was such a prime example of acting perfection she has no real competition. Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”) could win only if her film experienced a gold rush. Jodie Foster (“Nyad”) needs to ride a wave of nostalgia. Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”) has to hope there are enough people who thought she outdid Oprah Winfrey in the original. Only America Ferrera (a surprise nominee for “Barbie”) could pull off the impossible. We don’t think that’s likely. WINNER: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers.”
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Here again, another lock: Robert Downey Jr. for “Oppenheimer.” After years toiling in Marvel’s playground, he got a meaty role that tested his abilities – and he delivered. Ryan Gosling was a treat as Ken in “Barbie,” but most won’t think the work was as layered as Downey’s. Similarly, Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”), Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) and Sterling K. Brown (“American Fiction”) didn’t hold a glove to the one Downey threw down. WINNER: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer.”
BEST ACTRESS
Here’s where life gets a little sticky. Critics say Emma Stone delivered the performance of a lifetime in “Poor Things.” Others contend a win for Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) would crack the door for more Native American projects and performers. That leaves Annette Bening (“Nyad”) and Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”) in the lurch. Only Sandra Huller (“Anatomy of a Fall”) could leapfrog over the front runners and claim the prize. But will she? That’s a big ask (although she did appear in “The Zone of Interest,” another Best Picture nominee). What’s likely to happen: She’s on hold and will win for another project, another year. Between Stone and Gladstone, it’s a coin toss. Had Gladstone been entered in the supporting actress category, it might have been easier. Gut instinct says Gladstone will take it, based largely on her win at the SAG awards. Don't be surprised, though, if Stone nudges her. It's that kind of year. WINNER: Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon."
BEST ACTOR
Another two-horse race: Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) and Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers.” Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”) might have been a threat but his film has won practically nothing on the circuit. That leaves him, Colman Domingo (“Rustin”) and Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”) on the outside. Murphy gave the more complex performance; Giamatti has the popularity factor. The SAG folks liked Murphy. But sentiment scores at the Oscars. We'll go out on a limb and say you can't have a big "Oppenheimer" night without the actor playing the title role. WINNER: Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer.”
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer.” He’s due.
BEST PICTURE
At this point, “Barbie” would need an “Argo”-like sympathy vote to win. “Oppenheimer” is such a dominant film, it’d be a shame not to give it the big prize. Outside player: “Anatomy of a Fall.” If it shows strength in other categories (winning Actress, Screenplay and Director), it could win here as well. But signs say: WINNER: “Oppenheimer.”
In other categories, look for “Barbie” to pick up at least one, “Oppenheimer” to win several crafts prizes and “Maestro” to earn something like Best Hairstyles and Makeup.
Several Best Picture nominees could go home empty-handed. That’s just how the game is played.
The Oscars air March 10 on ABC. Jimmy Kimmel hosts.
Movie critic Bruce Miller says “Barbie” is a playdate that’s also educational. It’s one of the most intelligent films of the year.
Movie critic Bruce Miller says "The Holdovers" is a holiday movie with some rougher edges. Despite being bathed in the glow of nostalgia, “The Holdovers” is brutally real about human relationships.
Movie critic Bruce Miller says "Killers of the Flower Moon” is true cinema. It’s art in its highest form that never fails to entertain.
