The UA has not specified how many off-campus students have tested positive for the virus, saying only that some are included in the 480 cases the university has confirmed at its on-campus testing sites. But early indicators show large swaths of off-campus students are infected and not included in the count.

 Photos by Mamta Popat / Arizona Daily Star

A dip in cases per capita of the coronavirus in Pima County, as well as drops in the positive test rate and hospital visits from the virus, pushed the county into the state’s “moderate” status for business reopening.

But Pima County’s chief medical officer said that while the numbers are trending in the right direction, the reopening of gyms, fitness centers and movie theaters, alongside the looming potential of another spike, makes him a “bit uncomfortable.”

“It is not in the businesses’ best interests or the county’s best interest to be whipsawing between closure and opening and closure and opening,” Dr. Francisco Garcia said. “It accomplishes nothing. It frustrates operators. It sends the wrong signal. It doesn’t accomplish the policy objective which is we need to keep these things going in the right trend.”

Pima County saw a slight uptick in cases during the week ending Aug. 15, but has seen a sharp drop-off since, with 470 cases reported from Aug. 16-22, the county’s lowest total since late May. That coincided with continued state-wide decreases in deaths, new cases and hospitalizations. It’s possible these numbers change as data gets backfilled.

Those totals, along with a positive test rate of 5%, meant Pima County this week achieved the Arizona Department of Health Services’ criteria for reopening certain businesses with restrictions, including limited capacity.

Garcia said his concern stems from the fact that the county saw its biggest spike after Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey lifted stay-at-home protocols in May. That prompted Pima County to reach highs in cases, hospitalizations and deaths around July 4. The numbers started dipping after the county instituted a mask requirement.

The business reopenings are coming roughly at the same time as the return of the University of Arizona students. The expectation, based on what’s happening on college campuses around the country, is that the county will see a spike in cases likely three weeks after the students returned in mid-August.

“The part that I worry about is that this is the population that is the most socially engaged and gregarious, and the population that feels invulnerable,” Garcia said. “Put that in the middle of what we’re living today and it’s a bad combo.”

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Contact reporter Justin Sayers at jsayers1@tucson.com or 573-4192. Twitter: @_JustinSayers. Facebook: JustinSSayers.