While Arizonaβs second congressional district has seen a fair bit of turnover over the last decade, many are expecting Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick to coast to victory in November.
But with just a few weeks before Election Day, the 70-year-old four-term congresswoman is taking nothing for granted in the district thatβs flip-flopped between Republican Martha McSally and Democrat Ron Barber over the last decade.
βWe always run as hard as we possibly can because we donβt want to have any regrets on Election Day,β said Kirkpatrick, who returned to Congress in 2018 after a failed challenge to U.S. Senator John McCain. βI still consider it a very competitive district and we need to talk to the voters, tell them the facts and make sure people are ready to vote.β
Standing in the way of Kirkpatrickβs fifth term is Brandon Martin, a 35-year-old veteran whose support for building a border wall, stimulating the economy through income tax cuts, and promotion of individual liberties earned him the endorsement of President Trump.
βI think that the Republicans are offering opportunity and prosperity,β Martin said, adding that he was βproud and honoredβ to gain the endorsement of Trump, which came during a Latinos for Trump roundtable earlier this month in Phoenix.
But despite Martinβs confidence, enthusiasm and support, not many experts are giving Martin much of a chance. Cook Political Report has listed the district as βsolidβ Democrat. Sabatoβs Crystal Ball has the district as βlikely Democratic.β
University of Arizona Professor Barbara Norrander, who teaches in the school of government and public policy, said that competitiveness in the district waned when it got swept up in a nationwide βBlue Waveβ in 2018.
Kirkpatrick won the seat by more than 9 percentage points in 2018 thanks to the voters in eastern Pima County, who overshadowed the votes in more rural areas in the district, like Cochise County.
Ultimately, Norrander said the race appears to be a βtypical incumbent re-electionβ due to large gaps in fundraising, trends in voter registration in the district, and the underlying fact that incumbents win 90-95% of reelection races.
Kirkpatrick has outraised Martin roughly 8-to-1, and has 20 times more money left to spend, according to the most-recent federal filings submitted in mid-July. Thereβs also roughly 28,000 more Democrats registered in the district, according to the Pima County Recorderβs Office.
But Martin maintained things βcan and will be differentβ this time, saying βpeople in District 2 care about property rights, individual liberties and they want to get back to work.
βThatβs what President Trump, Republicans and I want to do here in CD2,β he said.
No debates between the two have yet been scheduled, with both candidates saying they are open to one. Kirkpatrick said sheβs trying to wrap up her work in Congress before transitioning full time to campaigning. Martin said heβs pushing for a socially distant, in-person discussion of issues.
In the meantime, the Sierra Vista resident and executive director of Keepers of Liberty, has been campaigning around the district, which includes two military bases and the U.S.-Mexico border, spreading the word of his Liberate the Economy, and American Paychecks Act.
Heβs labeled Kirkpatrick as βAbsent Ann,β knocking her for a high number of missed votes, as well as her aligning most of her votes with the Democrat party. Govtrack.us found that Kirkpatrick missed 7.7% of roll-call votes since 2009. FiveThirtyEight found that she voted in line with Trump policies 2.7% of the time.
βHer record speaks for herself,β Martin said.
In a statement, Arielle Devorah, Kirkpatrickβs campaign spokeswoman, said sheβs βbeen transparentβ about why she missed the votes, referring to a stint in rehab for alcoholism. She made sure to submit her votes into the congressional record, where they werenβt counted but reflected where she stood on issues.
For Kirkpatrick, she expressed skepticism that a Trump-aligned message from Martin would play well in the district, saying sheβs found that many in the district are βindependent thinkers.β She added that sheβs found Congress to have become less bipartisan in the era of Trump.
She called every election a βjob evaluation.β She said she hopes her work on the Houseβs appropriations committee, where sheβs been able to secure funding for infrastructure projects in Arizona, such as the repair of roads and bridges, will lead to her reelection.
Sheβs hoping to do more of the same if sheβs reelected, saying sheβll be focused on ports of entry to increase economic ties between the U.S. and Mexico, and make it easier for families in her district who travel back and forth between countries to do so. Other priorities include immigration reform, without a wall, and health-care reform, the importance of which has been elevated by the pandemic.
In the past, sheβs gone to door-to-door to speak with constituents but will be more creative this time to have a presence with prospective voters. She said it all comes down to voter turnout.
βItβs not long ago that it was a red district, and I donβt take anything for granted,β she said.
Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick and Republican Lea MΓ‘rquez Peterson answered questions in front of several hundred during a televised debate at the T…
