Tucson’s dry spell stretched through May and now will be joined by a blazing start to June.
The normal monthly rainfall in May is 0.23 of an inch, but only trace amounts of rain fell on the first and second days of the month. No significant rain has fallen in Tucson since late February.
April and May are typically the driest months of the year for Southern Arizona.
It’s not shocking that Tucson is more than an inch below normal since the start of the year. But when looking at how little rain we have received since the beginning of what’s called the water year — the start of the 12-month period beginning Oct. 1 — we’re actually fairly far below the expected 5.47 inches at 2.89.
May’s average monthly temperature was above 78.4, more than 2.5 degrees above normal. The month ended up being the 11th warmest May on record for Tucson, according to the National Weather Service.
The month began with a few days of mild temperatures in the 70- and 80-degree range. Temperatures then hit triple digits for the first time this year May 6, reaching 103 degrees, which ended up being the month’s high temperature.
Average daily temperatures were more than 10 degrees above normal from May 6 to May 10, with all these days being over 100 degrees.
Since May 11, high temperatures have flirted with, but have fallen short of, 100 degrees until the last day of the month, yet temperatures have nearly aligned with the averages.
As for June, temperatures are expected to ramp up to 105 and 107 degrees Saturday and Sunday. The normal high around this time of year is 97 degrees. Records could be in danger those two days, with the record highs for June 2 at 108 degrees and June 3 at 107 degrees.
“There’s some very early hints that we could be looking at some rain by the end of next week,” but because it’s so far out in the forecast, “we’re not going to put a lot of weight in it,” said Emily Carpenter, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tucson.
It could be a false start to the monsoon, the seasonal shift in wind patterns caused by the land and ocean heating at different rates, which typically brings Tucson about half of its yearly rainfall. The season officially starts June 15, but rains usually don’t arrive until early July.
“It looks like it was a mild May, but 2.5 degrees is still hotter than we’re used to. I’m hoping the rain is coming,” Carpenter said.
When it’s hot and dry, fire-feeding fuels dry out.
“Any time we get rain, the fuels recover slightly, which gives us a little reprieve,” Carpenter said. But, “even if we get some storm development, we’ll get lightning — another fire weather concern.”
Most public land in Southern Arizona, including national forests, parks and state land are on heightened fire restrictions — no open flames — because of the dry conditions.
So while “we’re hoping that monsoon is going to come in and kick us in the rear,” she said, she urges people to remain careful, aware and not get complacent.
