Today, hundreds of Tucson business people will hear economist George Hammond deliver what is likely to be another forecast of economic mediocrity.
The closure of Freeport McMoRanโs Sierrita Mine, announced this week, makes the outlook even more mediocre. Thatโs 900 good-paying jobs down the tubes for now, thanks to copperโs notorious boom-and-bust cycle.
โWeโre growing slowly, so when you get job losses such as what weโve seen at the university or at the copper mine, thatโs slowing job growth from slow to very slow,โ he told me Thursday.
Hammond, of the UAโs Eller College of Management, will deliver his annual economic forecast during a luncheon today at the Westin La Paloma. Maybe he should have given a preview to the Tucson City Council on Wednesday afternoon.
That day, council members voted to form a new task force to consider an ordinance mandating that all employers operating in Tucson offer sick leave as a benefit.
Council Member Regina Romero spearheaded the effort, on behalf of a coalition thatโs been building up to this โ doing studies, lobbying council members, building support. Romero argued that offering sick leave has minimal effects on a companyโs revenue while it improves workersโ productivity.
I donโt doubt sheโs right about that, but strong economic growth that makes businesses compete for employees would be the surest way to guarantee good benefits.
This possible mandate is the kind of thing that Tucsonโs City Council traditionally jumps at โ taking a local stand in favor of some hot national issue. But even a reliable social-justice advocate like council member Karin Uhlich seemed to wish the council members didnโt have to think about it, especially now, days after learning theyโll be dealing with a $42 million deficit in the coming fiscal year.
โYou put something like this in front of a progressive group of people, we want to do something,โ she said at the council meeting. โAnd not only do we want to do something, we want to do the right thing. And whatโs our impulse, whatโs our purview? Letโs pass a law โ because thatโs all we can do.โ
She even went on to ponder aloud whether the city should get involved in such symbolic efforts anymore.
โI might even get a round of applause for passing that law, but itโs got to stop at some point,โ she said. โItโs got to stop.โ
It was a refreshing bit of realism. But in the end, the council tweaked Romeroโs proposal to put less of a burden on City Manager Mike Ortega and his staff and went ahead to form the task force.
Only Council Member Steve Kozachik voted no. He told me Thursday itโs just not the kind of thing Tucson should be doing now.
โWeโre going to have to rely on growing our way out of this deficit,โ he said. โOur focus should be on getting our budget structurally balanced and encouraging the private sector to come in and invest in this community.โ
Iโm not opposed to mandates such as minimum wages or even sick leave, in that they can set a fair baseline rule that all employers must follow if they want to do business. But in Gov. Doug Duceyโs Arizona, Tucson is putting itself at a competitive disadvantage if it tells businesses that inside city limits the rules of operation will be stricter than outside.
We canโt afford any more disadvantages at this delicate economic moment.
Casino money unplugged
In September, I reported that a new interpretation of the stateโs tribal gaming compacts threatened to choke off a longstanding source of funds for Southern Arizona charities.
The state said any tribal โrevenue-sharingโ money must be donated to cities, towns counties or a state economic-development commission, not passed through to charities, as has been the custom.
Now, it appears, the flow may be loosening.
The Alliance of Arizona Nonprofits said Wednesday that it has been talking with representatives of the Department of Gaming, who are revising their stance.
โThe Department of Gaming has communicated that it will not aggressively pursue additional guidance to casinos in regards to the path through which funds are distributed,โ the alliance said in a press release. โThe Department will also be sending out a revised letter to the tribes to further clarify this updated stance.โ
Thatโs not totally clear, of course, but it appears the multimillion-dollar donations from tribes to nonprofits may resume soon.
Chamber merger
The announcement this week that the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry entered into a partnership should come as no surprise to observers of Arizona politics.
The Tucson Hispanic Chamber, under Lea Marquez Peterson, and the Arizona Chamber, under Glenn Hamer, have been big supporters of Gov. Doug Ducey, working on several of his initiatives and serving on each otherโs boards. Now members of each group will also get memberships in the other โ a move that Ducey interestingly congratulated the chambers on.
Some other groups, like the Tucson Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, arenโt part of the stateโs political in-group. President Mike Varney was an outspoken opponent of the budget Ducey helped push through last year, a transgression that certainly was noted in Phoenix.
