A majority of people in Pima County want Joe Biden in the White House and Mark Kelly in the U.S. Senate, according to a new Arizona Daily Star Community Pulse poll.

Biden leads President Trump by 30 percentage points, and Kelly leads incumbent Republican Martha McSally by 25 percentage points in the poll of more than 3,700 county residents.

Roughly 58% of those surveyed said they favored the Democrats in the two races. About 29% said they would vote for Trump and about 33% said they would vote for McSally. Almost 10% of respondents in the presidential race and just over 8% in the Senate race said they were still undecided. About 3% said they don’t plan to vote for either Trump or Biden.

The Star Community Pulse was conducted online by Tucson-based NüPOINT Marketing and Market Research between Sept. 30 and Oct. 5, so the results may have been colored by current events.

Trump and Biden squared off in their first debate on Sept. 29. Trump announced he was positive for COVID-19 on Oct. 1. Kelly and McSally met for their only debate on Oct. 6, after the poll was conducted.

analyst calls Kelly “definite favorite”

Participants in the survey included newspaper readers and other members of the community. The results were adjusted to better reflect the demographics of Pima County, which is home to a higher percentage of young, Hispanic residents than were captured by the poll.

The adjustment did not impact the overall results, which have a margin of error 1.6% at the 95% confidence level and a larger sample size than some national presidential opinion polls, said NüPOINT CEO Mary Rowley.

Biden and Kelly should expect to poll well in Pima County, where voter registration tallies from early August show 68,015 more Democrats than Republicans. In Arizona as a whole, Republicans outnumber Democrats by almost 100,000.

The Star poll results are in line with statewide polling and projections by political analysts that have tilted in Kelly’s favor for months now.

The retired NASA astronaut and Navy pilot has also raised significantly more money than McSally has, though she also ranks among the nation’s top fundraisers this election cycle.

“We view Kelly as the definite favorite,” said contributor Drew Savicki from 270toWin, a nonpartisan website that projects presidential races and other political contests.

He said McSally is stuck trying to please her Trump-loving conservative base while also courting Republicans and independents who want someone else in the White House.

As proof, Savicki pointed to Tuesday’s Senate debate, which saw the accomplished Air Force combat pilot evading direct questions about her support for Trump.

“It’s a very tough needle to thread,” he said.

Arizona could swing after decades of red

The GOP simply doesn’t have the hold on Arizona it once had, Savicki said. As he wrote in a recent analysis of the state, changing demographics and recent successes by Democrats in 2018 have turned Arizona into a swing state for the first time in decades.

“It’s not the Arizona of the 1980s anymore. It’s not Barry Goldwater’s Arizona anymore,” Savicki said.

Even so, Biden and Kelly are fighting against a lot of history, much of it bathed in red.

Bill Clinton’s win in Arizona in 1996 is the only one by a Democratic candidate for president since 1952, while Kyrsten Sinema’s victory over McSally in 2018 marked the first time Arizona sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 30 years.

If the polls are right and the current trend continues, Arizona could soon be represented for the first time in almost 70 years by two Democratic senators, both of them elected at McSally’s expense.

“She’s got her work cut out for her,” Savicki said.

Winning over independents will be key for any statewide candidate, with the Arizona electorate roughly divided into thirds among Republicans, Democrats and third-party voters, according to the latest count by Arizona Secretary of State’s Office on Aug. 4.

More defectors among Republicans than Democrats

Pima County independents are solidly backing Biden and Kelly, at least for now, according to the Star’s poll.

Almost 58% of respondents who identified themselves as independent or having no party affiliation said they would vote for Biden, while about 20% said they would vote for Trump and about 18% said they were undecided. Among that same group, 57% said they supported Kelly, 27% said they supported McSally and about 15% said they were still making up their minds.

Surprisingly, perhaps, just over 18% of Republicans in Pima County said they were backing Biden and just over 16% said they planned to vote for Kelly.

“That’s a big percentage. We don’t usually see that many partisans saying they’re voting for the other party,” said Samara Klar, an associate professor at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy.

By contrast, fewer than 2% of the county’s Democrats said they planned to break ranks with their party and vote for Trump or McSally.

Those totals seem particularly worrisome for McSally, who actually lives in Pima County. “It’s more evidence that she’s in a lot of trouble,” Klar said.

The McSally and Kelly campaigns did not respond to requests for comment on the poll.

Red in the northwest, blue in the midsection

Biden had the majority of support — though to varying degrees — among women (64.8%), men (55.2%), Hispanics (50.9%), those age 55 and over (60.4%), those 35 to 54 (63%), and those 18 to 34 (54.1%).

Kelly’s support was strongest among non-Hispanics at 65.1%, followed by women (64.5%), people age 35 and up (60%), 18-34 year olds (54.2%), men (53.8%) and Hispanics (50.3%).

Geographically speaking, the strongest level of support for both Kelly and Biden came from midtown Tucson, downtown and the University of Arizona area.

The local stronghold for Trump and McSally was on the northwest side.

Respondents seemed less sure about the race for Pima County sheriff.

Incumbent Mark Napier, a Republican, was ahead with 38% compared to 24.4% for Democrat Chris Nanos. Still, 37.6% of respondents said they hadn’t made up their minds.

Vast majority ready to accept election result

Of course, none of the polls or the punditry will really matter much in the end. As the nation learned in 2016, the real decisions are made at the ballot box.

Election officials began sending out early mail-in ballots on Wednesday. In-person early voting also began on Wednesday and runs through Oct. 30.

Election Day is Nov. 3, when all polling locations in Pima County will be open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.

Which brings us to the final question in the new Star poll: Based on what you know now, will you accept the results of the presidential election?

Almost 77% of respondents said they would, while less than 2% said they wouldn’t. Just over 21% said they weren’t sure.

The UA’s Klar said it’s a little hard to interpret that last group of responses. Maybe the people who said they were unsure simply didn’t know what to make of the question.

“What does it mean to not accept something? It’s hard to say,” said Klar, who studies voting behavior and American politics.

The good news: The vast majority of respondents are ready to accept the election results, Klar said, while “an exceptionally small number” said they would not.

“If you had 21% in the ‘no’ category, then you might have reason to be concerned,” she said.

A brief guide to state absentee voting rules and resources for requesting mail-in ballots for the upcoming election.

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Contact reporter Henry Brean at hbrean@tucson.com or 520-573 4283. On Twitter: @RefriedBrean.