Bicyclist rides by the dozens of blooming palo verde trees planted by the City of Tucson along Kino Parkway near 22nd Street in 2022. Trees are one part of the city's climate plan.

Environmentalists, business groups and neighborhood activists are greeting Tucson’s new climate action plan with a mix of warmth, wariness and skepticism.

Many environmentalists and community activists, probably the large majority of those commenting on the plan, said they’re glad city officials are finally taking on the problem of both local and global intensification of extreme heat, a problem they’ve been warning about for more than two decades.

They’re pleased the plan wants to transform Tucson from a car-centered, sprawling city into one more reliant on walking and transit and one using far more solar energy and driving far more electric vehicles.

But some are wary of proposed actions in the plan aimed at increasing housing densities as a way to encourage less use of gas-powered cars and to make housing more affordable. Some business groups are concerned about plan proposals they say could raise housing prices.

A University of Arizona researcher otherwise supportive of the plan, Assistant Professor Neha Gupta, warns it will be a “big lift” across our society and culture to make the plan achieve its goals of carbon neutrality, in which Tucson produces no more greenhouse gas emissions such as carbon dioxide than are captured by trees and other sources.

The City Council unanimously adopted the plan on March 7, after many months of discussion and debate among a flood of different interest groups. The plan, which a city consultant produced for $400,000, contains 24 broad strategies and more than 120 proposed individual actions involving transportation, land and energy use and infrastructure, waste reduction, and overall community resiliency to enable Tucson to adapt to warming temperatures.

Supporters say they’re particularly pleased the plan heavily focuses on helping low-income neighborhoods and those dominated by people of color adapt to the area’s worsening heat through the planting of more trees, addition of other shade structures, and creation of neighborhood-based “resilience hubs,” centers where people can go to escape very hot summer days when temperatures climb well over 100 degrees.

“The Climate Action and Adaptation Plan is a living document that secures a better future for our community,” said Vanessa Gallego, owner of a longtime Tucson recycling business and chair until very recently of the City Commission on Climate Energy and Sustainability. “This plan is equity focused and centers on the most vulnerable. This is what carries the plan as a real change maker for communities such as the south side and west side, areas known for historical disinvestment and home to frontline climate change communities.”

People crowd the sidewalk on Congress Street near Scott Avenue, ca. 1950s, when many retail businesses, employers, restaurants and housing was clustered at or near downtown Tucson.

Some activists also welcome the plan’s emphasis on the basic structure of car-dominated Tucson, with its goal of creating a “15-minute city.”

That vision proposes changing city zoning and other development policies to encourage higher densities, “infill” of partially developed urban areas, more affordable housing and improved access to city amenities via buses, bikes and walking.

Laura Dent, a member of the Mayor’s Climate Advisory Council, said “first and foremost, we should celebrate the thorough public input that is informing the plan,” in which the city sought comments from interest groups, advisory committees and the general public, among others.

“When many voices are represented, we create durable ideas and policy opportunities to build a cleaner future,” said Dent, coalition director for Activate 48, a nonprofit organization representing a variety of groups advocating for environmental justice and “climate resiliency.”

She also said the climate plan’s proposals to reduce use of gas-powered water heaters, stoves and clothes driers in privately owned homes and other buildings, in favor of electric appliances, and exploring the possibility of various community-run power generating options, will help address inequalities that have kept lower-income communities and communities of color from having the same access to renewable energy as the general public does.

Some alarm bells about housing density

At the same time, some neighborhood activists are wary that the plan’s advocacy of more housing density will boost not just inner-city development but property values, displacing homeowners with rising property taxes and renters with escalating rents. While some activists welcome the plan’s advocacy of loosening some zoning rules to encourage more infill development, others wonder whether that will really generate more affordable housing.

They’re also concerned denser inner-city housing will reduce that area’s already diminished supply of open space and intensify Tucson’s already problematic heat island effect with more buildings and pavement.

“Will relaxed zoning give us the increased housing that we need, especially affordable housing? I don’t think that’s going to happen,” said Raul Ramirez, vice president of the Menlo Park Neighborhood Association and a board member of the Tucson Barrio Association. “I understand supply and demand, but the development community is more interested in getting a 20% return on investment.

“Most housing will be market rate unless you offer other incentives for affordable housing. To feel that’s going to trickle down to meet the demand, I don’t think so, at least not in the next 5 to 10 years,” Ramirez said.

Ramirez said he expects the city's west and south side barrios will be targeted for new higher density development, and expressed concern that would create "more of a heat island there. Whatever development is taking place, there has to be enough open space too -- we have to sort of balance it."

as you develop more in these areas; you create more of a heat island; we have to have some sort of ; there has to be enough open space; whatever development is taking place; we have to sort of balance it; as we pushe for mor etrees being planted; too much water to get going; there’s a drought resistant type you still need to have some water source; not always 100”$ drought proof; gotta have some watersource

But to Miranda Schubert, founder of the group Tucson for Everyone, the plan represents a holistic look at the things that need to happen to break the development “status quo, or the community won’t be inhabitable in the future.”

“Our current reality is we’re perpetuating urban sprawl, spreading further and further out, forcing people to drive cars to get to where they need to go. We’re funding road widenings, too many highways,” she said.

Schubert’s group is a local chapter of a national movement known as Yes In My Backyard, as opposed to the anti-density, not in my backyard philosophy. A strong infill supporter, Schubert said: “I think the affordable housing crisis is really complicated. You can’t point to any one cause — a significant factor is that there’s just not enough housing in the places where people need it.”

Neighborhood activist Colette Altaffer, though, warns that increasing inner-city housing densities won’t stop urban sprawl. To do that would require the city to adopt urban growth boundaries limiting development outside them, she said, which voters overwhelmingly rejected in a 2000 statewide referendum.

“You can only create so much density. People will say ‘I’ve had enough’ and start to move out,” said Altaffer, who works with the group Tucson Residents for Responsive Government and the Barrio Neighborhood Coalition.

While Pima County government reined in some peripheral growth by buying open space through the Sonoran Desert Conservation Plan, “as long as people buy land and use the arguments of private property rights and supposedly have access to water,” Altaffer said, creating a truly compact city that limits sprawl won’t happen. To do that would require the city government to limit rezonings and say, “’We are not going to provide services and we are not going to annex,’” she said.

Two Sun Link streetcars pass each other along a 4th Avenue busy with vehicles, bicycles and pedestrians in 2019.

Businesses: Use incentives, not mandates

Leaders of several major business groups and companies, including Tucson Electric Power, the Southern Arizona Home Builders Association and the Tucson Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce, say they welcome the opportunity to work with city officials to help craft long-term climate fighting strategies. Unlike some national business leaders and some very conservative politicians, none question the reality of human-caused climate change and some stress the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

“Many of the Chamber’s members have acknowledged the need for policies that aim to reduce greenhouse gasses while also ensuring the economic vitality of our region’s future. There should be a balance since policies that over-regulate business in the name of climate action could do more harm than good,” wrote Chamber President and CEO Michael Guymon in a February letter to Mayor Regina Romero.

At the same time, the chamber and SAHBA expressed concerns about many of the plan’s proposed actions and policies in letters to city government.

Guymon questioned the rationale behind a plan recommendation that the city finance or give financial incentives to building owners to convert their natural gas-powered appliances to electric-powered. That’s presumably because electric-powered appliances will someday get more if not all their juice from renewable energy. Natural gas appliances generate methane, a greenhouse gas far more potent although less long-lasting than the carbon dioxide given off by burning of coal-fired electric power plants.

“Companies should have the market-based choice to install the systems that make economic and environmental sense. Many buildings with LEED certification for being “green” include gas-powered systems to power their operations,” Guymon wrote.

He also mentioned a plan policy to develop incentives, possibly including reduced permitting fees, for businesses installing solar-powered photovoltaic panels or energy storage systems.

“The city recently adopted code amendments to regulate that new commercial and multi-family development install electric-vehicle charging stations despite the industry’s request that those functions be incentivized, like this recommendation suggests. We request a firmer commitment from the city that incentives will be developed since recent history indicates the city is more interested in mandates and regulations,” Guymon wrote.

In his letter to the city, SAHBA President David Godlewski said the group has found that several proposed items will potentially raise housing costs and damage infrastructure. Among them are proposals for “climate resilient design codes,” to set standards for tree canopy, and rainwater harvesting “green infrastructure” for energy efficiency, “including but not limited to specifications for low-income weatherization, air conditioning, and enhanced filtration for wildfire smoke.”

He also cited a proposal for Tucson to collaborate with other cities to seek money to develop regional energy code standards that promote highly energy efficient and/or zero-emission buildings in new construction.

“At this point in time, we haven’t taken a position” on the overall plan, Godlewski told the Star. “We feel like there are still some unknowns, and we’re trying to get more information to know exactly whether it’s something we can support or have concerns about.”

But Ian McDowell, a vice president for Tucson-based Sundt Construction, said he supports many of the climate plan’s recommendations, as another member of the Mayoral Climate Action Advisory Council.

“Sustainability issues such as mass transit, walkability and bike paths make getting to work easier,” he said. Since having a good workforce is the most important factor in drawing prospective employers to this area, “making improvements in these areas can also serve to increase the number of people who are able to participate in the local workforce,” he said.

“Since many businesses are currently relocating from California (where climate change is deemed to be important by many residents), leadership in the climate arena could be a positive for our community,” McDowell said.

But ideally, he’d like to see “sustainability measures be incentivized for construction projects rather than mandated.”

Staff and volunteers with Habitat for Humanity build in-fill homes on vacant land on East Yavapai Road in Tucson.

‘A big lift’ — can it be achieved?

Sierra Club leader Sandy Bahr, who also sits on the mayoral council, praised the plan’s focus on insuring that people most affected by warming weather in the urban core get the benefits of the various strategies it proposes. Overall, “I know there was a real effort to go out and listen to people in local communities.”

“Always, with any plan, the key to it is implementation. We’ve all seen really good plans that sit on the shelf. It’s really important and I think it’s incumbent on those of us who are advocating for plans and actions on climate, to make sure the city follows through and funds the plans,” said Bahr, director of the Sierra Club’s Grand Canyon chapter.

There’s quite a lot of federal money and provisions in the infrastructure law passed in 2021 and last year’s Inflation Reduction Act to help cities build climate-related infrastructure, whether it’s for transit or renewable energy or other things, Bahr said. It will take some time because federal officials are still developing mechanisms for allocating the huge amounts of federal money appropriated for these bills, but “I think Tucson, with this plan, will be well conditioned to take advantage of these dollars,” she said.

UA’s Gupta, another advisory council member, said she’s generally happy with the plan, adding, “It’s pretty thorough. It doesn’t seem cookie-cutter or boilerplate. They took time to incorporate local references and local studies into the plan.”

But it has the same issues seen in similar plans elsewhere — “how do we really bring our emissions all the way down to actually meet our carbon neutrality goals?” said Gupta, of UA’s Arizona Institute for Resilience. “That’s one of the hardest parts of any climate action planning. They’re throwing a lot at it. I’m not sure it will really get us where we want to go.”

The plan’s projections show that by 2030, for instance, greenhouse gas emissions across the community will be 13% higher than in 2019, even under a “business as planned” scenario in which the city adopts many of the measures called for in the new climate plan, Gupta said.

That could require the city to purchase “carbon offsets” in which Tucson would plant trees or take other restoration measures to compensate for the increased emissions, she said.

In response, Lane Mandle, chief of staff for City Manager Miguel Ortega, told the Star, “I cannot speak to emission trends but I can tell you that the city is not eliminating the possibility of carbon offsets.”

Overall, achieving carbon neutrality across an entire city “is a big lift,” Gupta said.

“It’s a very tough goal to actually achieve for cities across the world, even in places that are more political culturally aligned with these kind of goals,” she said. “It’s a big shift in terms of culture, operations and funding and can be a big lift for investment.”

But “I don’t want to come off as a naysayer. It’s an ambitious effort that we’ve gotten this far,” Gupta said.

Mayor Regina Romero and City Council passed Tucson's Climate Action and Adaptation Plan on Tuesday in a 5-0 vote. Video courtesy of City of Tucson.


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Contact Tony Davis at 520-349-0350 or tdavis@tucson.com. Follow Davis on Twitter@tonydavis987.