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The drumbeat of political attacks on Sen. Mark Kelly has been steady since he released the Nov. 18 video telling military members, "You can refuse illegal orders."

President Trump has called the video "seditious behavior" and suggested it was deserving of the death penalty. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth demanded a preliminary investigation, and the FBI has been looking into it. 

Arizona Daily Star columnist Tim Steller

Last week, the U.S. Navy launched a formal investigation that could lead to Kelly, a Navy retiree, being recalled to duty to face a court-martial.

You might think that's all bad news for his political future and a possible presidential run in 2028.

Nope, they're more like Hanukkah or Christmas gifts. 

"Nothing has done more to boost his standing in the Democratic Party and his odds of actually running and being successful than Donald Trump and Pete Hegseth," said Barrett Marson, a Republican political consultant in Phoenix. They've boosted Kelly, Marson said, "both in fundraising and in profile."

Indeed, the attacks by Trump and Hegseth are now a regular feature of Kelly's fundraising appeals. On Dec. 17, for example, one email said, "Trump and Hegseth won't let this go — but I refuse to back down. And I need you with me to have any chance against them." 

There's no guarantee Kelly will run for president in 2028, which is a long way off, but he's made moves in that direction. He was one of three finalists to be Kamala Harris' vice presidential running mate in 2024. Even before the video episode, he'd visited key states like Michigan, Nevada and North Carolina, as well as early primary states like South Carolina.

"I do think he has been at a minimum positioning," said Steve Rabinowitz, a Tucson native, founder of the Washington, D.C., public relations firm Bluelight Strategies, and veteran of numerous Democratic presidential campaigns. "I suspect he's already in his mind decided."

If he does run, it'll be the first serious presidential campaign by a Tucson resident since Morris Udall. In fact, Rabinowitz was national youth coordinator for that 1976 campaign for the Democratic nomination, which Udall narrowly lost to the eventual president, Jimmy Carter.

U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly talks to supporters after a town hall earlier this month in Tucson.

Until recently, Arizona's other U.S. senator, Ruben Gallego, was making the more obvious play for a presidential run. He even showed up to the Iowa State Fair in August, and he did interviews for outlets including the New York Times explaining his vision for a Democratic Party with more of a masculine appeal.

As the saying goes, "Every senator looks in the mirror and sees a president."

But early surveys show Gallego doesn't rank — yet at least — among possible Democratic contenders. A September survey of 1,114 voters by YouGov found Kelly ranked ninth among preferred Democratic candidates. This was the top nine:

  • Gavin Newsom: 23%
  • Kamala Harris: 19%
  • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 8%
  • Pete Buttigieg: 6%
  • Bernie Sanders: 5%
  • Tim Walz: 5%
  • JB Pritzker: 4%
  • Elizabeth Warren: 3%
  • Mark Kelly: 2%

Gretchen Whitmer, Cory Booker and Amy Klobuchar rounded out that list. An October poll taken in New Hampshire, the earliest primary-election state, also found Kelly ranked ninth among Democrats' favorite candidates, at 3%, with Buttigieg in first place. That's not a great position for Kelly, but not that bad for this stage. 

"He’s in the second tier of candidates," said Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey, which ran the Granite State Poll. "It’s largely because he’s not well known. Name recognition is hugely important."

Even now, after the "illegal orders" video, Kelly probably hasn't gained much recognition in New Hampshire, Smith said. That's because another of the six members of Congress who made that video is Rep. Maggie Goodlander, who is from that state and has sucked up the attention there.

But Kelly's fundamental advantages are substantial:

  • He is a retired Navy pilot who flew combat missions in Iraq and served as a Space Shuttle commander. He's also married to Gabby Giffords, the former Tucson congresswoman shot in an attempted assassination in 2011.
  • He's a proven winner in Arizona, one of the states Democrats could use if they are going to win the presidency. He beat Republican Martha McSally by 1.2 percentage points in 2020, and Blake Masters by 4.9 percentage points in 2022.
  • He is a prolific fundraiser. He raised about $100 million total for his 2020 race, and about $89 million for the 2022 race. 

His principal disadvantage may be a lack of the sort of political charisma that draws voters to presidential candidates like Buttigieg. In a general election, he would also face criticism over his liberal voting record, though that may be an advantage in the primary.

Still, he's been getting a ton of practice at communication with voters. The overreaction by Trump and Hegseth has launched Kelly into a circuit of constant interviews and coverage by national news outlets. 

And that coverage of his statements about military orders inevitably spreads the public knowledge of his key advantages: His experience as a combat pilot and space shuttle commander.

"I think he’s a formidable candidate among a lot of formidable candidates," Rabinowitz said.

As to the new investigation, he added, "I think it'll help tremendously. That he’s being targeted by the Trump administration will turn out to be beneficial politically."

The idea that we would end up with our first president from Arizona — and Tucson — remains a reach, perhaps, but not as far a reach as it was before the Nov. 18 video. 

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Contact columnist Tim Steller at tsteller@tucson.com or ​520-807-7789. On Bluesky: @timsteller.bsky.social