WASHINGTON — Senate Democratic leaders believe they have a path to winning the majority in November, though it's one with very little wiggle room.
The party got a new burst of confidence when former Rep. Mary Peltola announced Monday she'll run for the Senate in Alaska. That gives Democrats, who must net four seats to edge Republicans out of the majority, a critical fourth candidate with statewide recognition in states where Republican senators seek reelection.
Republicans doubt the chances Democrats can pull off such a task, considering most of the 2026 contests are in states that Donald Trump easily won in 2024.
Still, independent voters drifted in Democrats' direction over the past year, according to a new Gallup poll.
"I say it's a much wider path than the skeptics think, and a much wider path than it was three months ago and certainly a year ago," Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York said Tuesday.
4 statewide candidates in GOP-held states
Then-Rep.-elect Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, is interviewed Sept. 12, 2022, on Capitol Hill in Washington.
Schumer argues that Peltola, elected twice statewide to Alaska's at-large House seat, puts the typically Republican-leaning state in play as a potential pickup for Democrats.
It's a development similar to other states where Schumer believes Democrats recruited strong candidates: former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper in North Carolina and two-term Gov. Janet Mills in Maine.
They hardly represent guarantees. Brown, a longtime pro-labor progressive in increasingly GOP-leaning Ohio, and Peltola, who was elected during a special election in 2022, both lost reelection in 2024. Mills, finishing her second term as governor, faces a competitive primary challenge from progressive veteran and oyster farmer Graham Platner.
None of the four had runaway popularity with voters in their states in 2024. About half of voters had somewhat or very favorable views of all of them, according to AP VoteCast, a survey of the electorate.
Age remains another issue. After President Joe Biden, in his early 80s, withdrew from the 2024 race amid concerns he was too old to serve, Democratic Senate leadership hasn't changed course. Schumer, 75, recruited candidates who are older, with several top recruits — including Mills and Brown — well into their 70s.
"Voters sent a very clear message in 2024 that they're sick of the gerontocracy. They're sick of Democrats putting up old candidates and that they want some new blood," said Lis Smith, a national Democratic strategist. "And some of the recruits, like in Maine, seem to completely ignore the message that voters sent in 2024."
"It's not young versus old. It's not left versus center. It's who can best win in the states," Schumer said. "So, these are all really good candidates, and I don't think you look at them through one narrow prism. You look at who can win."
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., speaks Tuesday during the Senate Democrat policy luncheon news conference at the Capitol in Washington.
Primaries and party tensions
Democrats first must navigate some primaries that highlight divisions within their party.
Platner, endorsed by independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, demonstrated formidable fundraising for his Maine contest, despite controversies surrounding past social media posts and a tattoo linked to Nazi imagery. Some Democrats worry he could be a liability in November if he is the nominee.
In Michigan, Democratic Sen. Gary Peters' retirement opened a seat in a state Trump narrowly carried. Republicans unified behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, while Democrats face a crowded August primary after failing to recruit Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Crowded or contentious primaries also are playing out in Minnesota, Texas and Iowa, forcing Democrats to devote resources in states not central to their path to a majority.
Sen. Chris Van Hollen is part of an informal group of Democratic senators known as Fight Club that is openly critical of party leadership's approach to the midterms. He said the group objected to what it sees as the Senate Democrats' campaign arm — controlled by Schumer — "wading into certain Democratic primaries."
"So, yes, we're taking a look at all of them," Van Hollen said of endorsing more progressive candidates.
Republicans also like their odds
Betsy Ankney, political director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2020, acknowledged Democrats' desire to make the case for competitiveness but characterized Trump's presidential victories in Alaska and Ohio in 2024 — by 13 and 11 percentage point margins, respectively — as enormous hurdles.
She said Republicans are "rightly focused, on real tangible targets in Georgia, in Michigan," calling them "very real pickup opportunities."
Democrats' shot at the majority almost certainly depends on Sen. Jon Ossoff winning reelection in Georgia, where Trump won in 2024 by 2.2 percentage points, and holding Michigan, a state Trump carried by 1.4 percentage points.
"It's not just about where the Democrats can play. It's about where we can play, too," Ankney said.
Unsettled political environment
Despite the challenges, Democrats see reasons for optimism in the broader political climate.
A new Gallup survey found 47% of U.S. adults now identify with or lean toward the Democrats, while 42% are Republicans or lean Republican. That gives Democrats the advantage in party affiliation for the first time since Trump's first term.
But the data strongly suggests that independents moved toward Democrats because of their souring attitude toward Trump, rather than greater goodwill toward Democrats. The Democratic Party's favorability is still low, and Gallup's analysis found that, as more Americans identify as independents, they tend to gravitate toward the party that is out of political power — whether it's the Democrats or the Republicans.
