Every month, several scientific agencies around the world analyze global monthly temperatures to see how they fit in with the long-term climate record. Among the first of these released each month is from the Copernicus Earth Observation Program of the European Union, and they show a continuation of a disturbing trend from this summer.
Using billions of observations, with some computer simulations to fill in the gaps, they found that last month was 1.67 degrees Fahrenheit (0.93 degrees Celsius) warmer than the average September temperature between 1991-2020, easily making it the hottest September on record.
Over the last 15 years, each September’s difference from normal has been nudging upward toward 1 degree Fahrenheit, but had never exceeded it. This month’s difference from average is far and away higher than any other September on record.
Further, it is the largest difference from normal of any month in any year in their dataset, which goes back to 1940.
“The records are falling like dominoes,” says climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe, a professor at Texas Tech University and chief scientist at the Nature Conservancy. She is among the numerous scientists that are not surprised, as she has been studying the current and geological climate for more than 20 years.
departure from average temperature
Like many of her colleagues, seeing the increase instills a sense of shock.
“We’re shocked because seeing it in real life in front of your own eyes, happening in places you know, to people who you know — as opposed to on your screen and in your data — is a completely different ball of wax,” Hayhoe said.
While the world has been warmer in the very distant past, the change in temperature during those geological periods happened much more slowly. The current warming is far more rapid and in line with what she and her colleagues across the world have predicted.
“It is faster than any changes we have seen in human history. We also know that as far back as we can go in the paleoclimate history of the Earth, we have never seen this much carbon going into the atmosphere so quickly.”
FILE — A woman uses a fan in the courtyard of the Louvre museum, Sept. 7, 2023, in Paris. After a summer of record-smashing heat, warming somehow got even worse in September as Earth set a new mark for how far above normal temperatures were, the European climate agency reported Thursday, Oct. 5.
The dominant cause of the observed warming over the last 100 years is the burning of fossil fuels for energy, whether it is coal, oil or methane — the primary component of natural gas. As a result, the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere has risen 35 percent since 1958, and despite the brief hiccup during the pandemic, it has risen from 414 to 420 parts per million in the last two years.
Hayhoe said it is important to realize that work is being done to slow the rate of warming, although there is far more work that needs to be done. Highlighting the work underway also helps avoid the paralysis of doomism, which can be a natural response to bad news.
For those wondering what they can do, she emphasizes that simply talking about it is an important first step. “When we look at surveys, we’re not! We’re not talking about it,” she said.
Meeting people with common interests and values is a way to begin the conversation. “If we begin our conversation with something that unites us — or that we agree on — rather than something that divides us — what we disagree on — those conversations can be much more positive,” Hayhoe said.
She continued: “Have a conversation that begins with something we have in common, like hiking, birding, beach vacations or beer. Or whether we’re parents, medical professionals, runners, members of a Rotary Club, or a church.”
Emphasizing the importance of small steps that build into something greater, she talks about some of the groups she has interacted with.
“Bring in positive constructive solutions that show how people, organizations, businesses, schools, universities, churches, community groups — from Ultimate Frisbee teams to Girl Scouts — are all banding together and making a difference,” she said.
As she continues to study the data, Hayhoe remains optimistic:
“I know we can’t fix climate change alone, but I’m convinced that we can together.”
Sean Sublette is the chief meteorologist for the Richmond Times-Dispatch in Virginia.
