The following is the opinion and analysis of the writer:
Ronald Eustice
Donald Trump claims to love American farmers. For certain, most farmers “love” Trump; they voted overwhelmingly for him and helped elect him twice. What most farmers don’t admit is his policies have been harmful to them. Trump’s $12 billion farmer bailout is a ‘Band-Aid” on a bigger wound with which American agriculture is struggling.
Trump delivered on his promise to aid U.S. farmers hard hit by his sweeping tariff policy that devastated export markets for everything farmers produce from almonds to wheat, but that hasn’t freed agriculture from tight margins, volatile markets and uncertainty. Alongside Treasury Secretary Bessent, Agriculture Secretary Rollins, and National Economic Council director Hassett, Trump announced a $12 billion farm aid handout, which outlined much-needed relief for farmers who sounded the alarms about increasing costs and declining export opportunities amid trade tensions. The $12 billion announcement involves $11 billion in payments distributed from now until February. The remaining $1 billion goes out to farmers who produce “specialty crops."
Playing the blame game again, Trump said, “Now we’re once again in a position where a president is able to put farmers first,” Trump said at a roundtable of farmers and lawmakers. “But unfortunately, I’m the only president that does that.”
Blake Hurst, a farmer and past president of the Missouri Farm Bureau, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. "It seems to be going in a circle to raise tariffs, which causes our customers to raise tariffs, which causes us to lose money, which means we need money," We are bleeding economically." He added that eventual relief would come “by not having tariffs that are in place.” Hurst said that the money is “very much appreciated in farm country,” but that it’s important to note that “it won’t come close to replacing what we’ve lost.”
Tariffs on farm machinery, as well as seeds and fertilizer, sit at 9%, costing farmers about $33 billion more, according to North Dakota State University’s Agricultural Trade Monitor. That includes a more than 15% tax on tractors and herbicides. About 90 percent of U.S. potash and 50 percent of ammonia imports come from Canada, meaning these tariffs also raise farmer costs.
The biggest blow to US farmers has been the sudden crash in soybean sales to China as a direct result of the tariffs. There is widespread doubt that tensions with China about soybeans are over. China hasn’t publicly committed to any level of purchases, and the Chinese have a history of breaking promises.
The Trump administration announced that China has pledged to buy 12 million metric tons of US soybeans this year and 25 million metric tons in each of the next three years. Chinese soybean purchases resumed, and prices jumped after the agreement in October. The total volume sold to China since Oct. 30 has so far reportedly amounted to about 2.8 million metric tons. Previously, China purchased about half of all U.S. soybean exports.
Meanwhile, Brazil has been the biggest beneficiary of the tariff turmoil by supplying nearly 80% of China’s total soybean imports in some months and is projected to send a record of over 100 million tons to China in 2025. Brazil’s soybean exports jumped 64% in November from a year ago to 4.2 million metric tons. China buys roughly 60% of the world’s soybeans.
It is highly unlikely that U.S. soybean producers will ever regain the China soybean market now that Brazil has ramped up production. This raises the question, what will Trump and future presidents do to bail out farmers for lost markets due to Trump's reckless tariffs, they may never regain?
Bottom line: The handout of twelve billion dollars is a lot of money, but it is not enough for each farmer to get a respectable amount. Each would have done far better financially if Trump had kept his nose away from tariffs. If Trump “loves” farmers, why does he keep hurting them in the first place? And let's not forget that in October, Trump bailed out Argentina to the tune of $20 billion. His affection seems greater for Argentina's president Milei than for American farmers.
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