The following is the opinion and analysis of the writer:
The issue of forced COVID-19 vaccinations has begun to boil over in Tucson and Pima County. Pima County is offering strong incentives to employees, while the city of Tucson now requires that all its employees be vaccinated. The Tucson Police Officers Association (TPOA) is pushing back against Tucson with a lawsuit pointing out that it has a contract with the Tucson that makes no mention of vaccinations.
So who should win? Should the vaccine mandate people prevail, or should individuals decide for themselves — you know, the “my body, my choice” principle?
Let’s start with the question: Why do people get vaccinated? A person gets a vaccination to stimulate the creation of antibodies and T cells that defend against a specific disease, like your body does naturally if you become infected (that’s how you recover).
I know what you’re thinking, if I had the disease, would I need the vaccination? There is evidence suggesting that the anti-bodies created by the RNA vaccines are more robust and enduring than those resulting from natural immunity; at the same time, a recently published research study titled, “Longitudinal analysis shows durable and broad immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 infection with persisting antibody responses and memory B and T cells”, states, “Here, we evaluate 254 COVID-19 patients longitudinally up to 8 months and find durable broad based immune responses.”
So, is natural immunity good? Yes. Is natural immunity combined with an RNA vaccine better? Probably. Research is ongoing. We are learning more all the time.
There is another benefit to vaccinations besides achieving individual immunity without all the sickness and risk of death unpleasantness, and that is taking a shortcut to herd immunity. It would be nice if we could get there quickly with fewer deaths.
Pima County has determined that herd immunity will be achieved when 75% of the population is vaccinated. I think a more precise way of expressing that goal would be that 75% of the population has achieved immunity, otherwise, you leave out those with natural immunity, and they should count toward that goal.
Pima County also provides a wealth of information with regard to cases, deaths and hospitalization rates. This information, combined with an individual’s particular circumstances, will help the individual make informed choices.
How has this individualism worked so far? I’m glad you asked. Take, for example, the individuals in Pima County. The Pima County government has a target of 75% of the population vaccinated. It is now around 54%, which sounds bad, but is it?
That 54% is for the entire population, but would it not make more sense to break it down by risk levels, perhaps by age since risk factors vary widely by age? The most vulnerable age group is those over 65. We know this because that group accounts for almost five times the number of deaths of all the other age groups combined. People in that age group understand that, which is why their vaccination rate is 84%, far in excess of the broader 75% goal of the county.
What brings the total population number down to 54% is the vaccination rates among the young and healthy. There have been fewer than 200 deaths among people ages 20 to 54. At the same time, the number of cases exceeds the number of cases in all other age groups combined by far.
The individuals in the 20-54 category assess the risk correctly in that they know that even if they get the disease it is highly unlikely that they will not recover. The large number of cases combined with the low number of deaths also means that there is now a huge number of healthy people who contracted the disease, recovered, and now have some natural immunity.
Since there are a significant number of people with natural immunity, then just counting the vaccinated toward herd immunity makes that number artificially low.
It appears that when we make individual choices, we tend to sort ourselves out into groups with different approaches that tend to serve both ourselves and our community better than broad government edicts, like vaccination mandates. It is undeniable that the sum of all the knowledge and wisdom among all the people guides us to better outcomes than an authoritarian ruler surrounded by a bunch of really smart people.
So, make your informed decision, get on with your life and have a nice day. Of course, if there is some other reason besides your health and the health of our community that inspires your desire for vaccine mandates, we would sure like to hear it.
