Arizona Wildcats sitting pretty, but big questions remain heading into toughest weekend yet
- Updated
This weekend could be a much clearer test of where the Wildcats are, with home games against sneakily talented USC and again-surging UCLA at McKale. Β
- Bruce Pascoe Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
In the big picture, all is well with the Arizona Wildcats. Maybe better than could be expected.
Theyβre resilient, to be sure, having dealt with two season-ending ACL tears, the Allonzo Trier Saga, Parker Jackson Cartwrightβs bum ankle and Kadeem Allenβs popped pinkie β all while collecting a 24-3 record, first-place position in the Pac-12 and track to a No. 2 or No. 3 NCAA Tournament seed.
Theyβve been through so much adversity that coach Sean Miller says if he had been told beforehand about it that βI would have said we wouldnβt be in the NCAA Tournament.β
But since Trier returned on Jan. 21 and the Wildcats pulled out their biggest win of the year, 96-85 at UCLA, it has been difficult to gauge exactly where they are heading.
They struggled at home with the zone defenses of Washington and Washington State, fell behind at halftime to then-winless Oregon State, were blown out at Oregon, posted single-digit home wins over Stanford and Cal β but managed to convincingly sweep the return games with the Cougars and Huskies last weekend.
This weekend could be a much clearer test of where they are, with home games against sneakily talented USC and again-surging UCLA at McKale. Maybe by then weβll know the answers to questions like these:Β
- Bruce Pascoe Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
Efficiently meshing Trierβs considerable offensive skills back in the Wildcatsβ rotation has been a predictably slow process.
But before Arizona took off for Washington last weekend, Sports Illustrated’s Luke Winn cited stats from HoopLens.com when writing that the Wildcats were a “superior defensive team – and a superior team overall – when he’s on the bench.” The HoopsLens numbers suggested Arizona’s defensive efficiency (the number of points an opponent scores per 100 possessions) rose from 98.0 to 107.0 when Trier played.
But Winn updated those numbers for the Star after Trier played well on both sides of the ball in Washington with Allen unavailable. They are now roughly equal, with Arizona allowing 1.02 points per 100 possessions with and without Trier. Arizona continues to have better offensive efficiency with Trier, and therefore is better overall.
Certainly, thatβs what Miller sees.
βI think with more games that will be more or less accurate,β Miller said. βItβs hard in an eight-game, nine-game sampling and one of them β the Oregon game β isnβt going to make our defense look real good. So you have to take that into consideration.
βWeβre a better defensive team with Allonzo. He gives us more depth and he is one of our better perimeter defensive payers. Heβs more experienced. Not having Kadeem, it made a big difference having Allonzo available.βΒ
- Bruce Pascoe Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
When UA signee Terrance Ferguson signed in Australia before his eligibility questions were addressed last summer, a noted shooter was taken off the Wildcatsβ roster right away.
The Wildcats had Jackson-Cartwright returning from a sophomore season in which he led all Pac-12 players in 3-point percentage, but PJCβs shot slumped in the beginning of the season. He then he missed nearly a month with his high ankle sprain.
And in the past month, both Lauri Markkanen and Kobi Simmons have struggled from 3-point range while starting wings Rawle Alkins and Allonzo Trier generally continue to be their most productive when driving to the basket. Arizona made just 5 of 17 (29.4 percent) of its 3s at Oregon and Oregon State, and shot less than 40 percent from long-range against the Bay Area schools at home.
But Arizona hit 55.6 percent from 3 at Washington State and 43.8 percent at Washington, even though both Simmons and Markkanen missed both 3s they took.
Since UAβs win over UCLA, Simmons is shooting 33.3 percent from 3 and Markkanen is hitting 35.4 percent.
But Trier and Jackson-Cartwright have been offsetting factors. Trier went 4 of 5 from 3-point range in his return home to Seattle last Saturday, while Jackson-Cartwright was 7 of 10 between the two games in Washington after having made just 11 of 38 3s entering the weekend.
βHis 3-point shooting has really returned back to form,β Miller said. βIβve never really deviated in describing how well he shoots. I watch him every day. And Iβve never seen a shooter shoot the ball like he does daily in the spring, summer and fall and it not translate into the game. He got off to a bad start this season and getting hurt, it avalanched on him. But right now heβs shooting really really well.βΒ
- Bruce Pascoe Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
Stanford grabbed 12 offensive rebounds and scored 17 second-chance points against the Wildcats on Feb. 8, numbers that center Chance Comanche said βwoke us up.β He said Arizona could be dominant because of its size but sometimes βtake plays off, including me.β
That trend continued last weekend. Arizona outrebounded WSU 42-28, allowed only six Cougar offensive rebounds and limited WSU double-double machine Josh Hawkinson to only eight rebounds. But then they were outrebounded by smaller Washington, 36-35, and gave up 16 offensive rebounds that led to nine second-chance points by the Huskies.
Had the Huskies been more efficient with those second chances, the game in Seattle might have been even scarier than it was for UA.
But, again, that may be a minor concern: The Wildcats were missing 7-foot center Dusan Ristic against the Huskies, and Arizona still has the biggest rebounding margin (plus-6.5) in Pac-12 games.Β
- Bruce Pascoe Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
The recent struggles of Markkanen and Simmons again suggest that βfreshman wallβ clichΓ© may be real, and understandably so considering the burden the Wildcats have put on all three of their freshmen this season.
"Lauri, Kobi and Rawle have been the three constants on this yearβs team," Miller said. "You donβt think about that usually because freshmen are the hardest ones to make consistent. ... They have been the constants. They have been the big reason weβve been able to fight through all this adversity which says a lot about their talent because when you depend on some talented freshmen in that role itβs hard to tell how itβs going to go."
Meanwhile, Miller has fretted at times this season that even rugged senior Kadeem Allen has worn out toward the end of games because of all the weight on his shoulders.
But the Wildcats will have several days to take it easy next week before facing Arizona State in their regular-season finale, and will then enjoy an opening-day bye in the Pac-12 Tournament. Both Allen (pinkie) and Ristic (sprained ankle) received some mandatory rest last week because of their injuries.
Maybe that becomes a good thing down the road.
βThat would be (helpful) for him to be running at his best physically here down the stretch because we ask a lot of him,β Miller said. βDusan, same thing.βΒ
- Bruce Pascoe Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
While losing at Oregon is no sin, the way the Wildcats lost is the kind of thing that can stick around in the back of your mind. In a 85-58 loss to the Ducks, UA allowed Oregon to shoot 65.2 percent, turned the ball over 13 times and struggled to shoot well (29.4 percent from 3-point range).
Since then, UA had two close wins over Stanford and Cal before appearing stronger against lesser competition (but with travel) in Washington last weekend.
This weekend should be more revealing. UA won't likely have much margin for error against USC and UCLA.
βBoth teams are very confident with their guard play, they score easily, and they play at fast tempos,β Miller said. βIn some ways they are similar in terms of their style. UCLA is just such an incredible offensive team. The way they score is β just, you donβt see many teams like them β and USC is very good."
- Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
Click the photo below to check out Bruce Pascoe's in-depth scouting report.Β
In the big picture, all is well with the Arizona Wildcats. Maybe better than could be expected.
Theyβre resilient, to be sure, having dealt with two season-ending ACL tears, the Allonzo Trier Saga, Parker Jackson Cartwrightβs bum ankle and Kadeem Allenβs popped pinkie β all while collecting a 24-3 record, first-place position in the Pac-12 and track to a No. 2 or No. 3 NCAA Tournament seed.
Theyβve been through so much adversity that coach Sean Miller says if he had been told beforehand about it that βI would have said we wouldnβt be in the NCAA Tournament.β
But since Trier returned on Jan. 21 and the Wildcats pulled out their biggest win of the year, 96-85 at UCLA, it has been difficult to gauge exactly where they are heading.
They struggled at home with the zone defenses of Washington and Washington State, fell behind at halftime to then-winless Oregon State, were blown out at Oregon, posted single-digit home wins over Stanford and Cal β but managed to convincingly sweep the return games with the Cougars and Huskies last weekend.
This weekend could be a much clearer test of where they are, with home games against sneakily talented USC and again-surging UCLA at McKale. Maybe by then weβll know the answers to questions like these:Β
Efficiently meshing Trierβs considerable offensive skills back in the Wildcatsβ rotation has been a predictably slow process.
But before Arizona took off for Washington last weekend, Sports Illustrated’s Luke Winn cited stats from HoopLens.com when writing that the Wildcats were a “superior defensive team – and a superior team overall – when he’s on the bench.” The HoopsLens numbers suggested Arizona’s defensive efficiency (the number of points an opponent scores per 100 possessions) rose from 98.0 to 107.0 when Trier played.
But Winn updated those numbers for the Star after Trier played well on both sides of the ball in Washington with Allen unavailable. They are now roughly equal, with Arizona allowing 1.02 points per 100 possessions with and without Trier. Arizona continues to have better offensive efficiency with Trier, and therefore is better overall.
Certainly, thatβs what Miller sees.
βI think with more games that will be more or less accurate,β Miller said. βItβs hard in an eight-game, nine-game sampling and one of them β the Oregon game β isnβt going to make our defense look real good. So you have to take that into consideration.
βWeβre a better defensive team with Allonzo. He gives us more depth and he is one of our better perimeter defensive payers. Heβs more experienced. Not having Kadeem, it made a big difference having Allonzo available.βΒ
When UA signee Terrance Ferguson signed in Australia before his eligibility questions were addressed last summer, a noted shooter was taken off the Wildcatsβ roster right away.
The Wildcats had Jackson-Cartwright returning from a sophomore season in which he led all Pac-12 players in 3-point percentage, but PJCβs shot slumped in the beginning of the season. He then he missed nearly a month with his high ankle sprain.
And in the past month, both Lauri Markkanen and Kobi Simmons have struggled from 3-point range while starting wings Rawle Alkins and Allonzo Trier generally continue to be their most productive when driving to the basket. Arizona made just 5 of 17 (29.4 percent) of its 3s at Oregon and Oregon State, and shot less than 40 percent from long-range against the Bay Area schools at home.
But Arizona hit 55.6 percent from 3 at Washington State and 43.8 percent at Washington, even though both Simmons and Markkanen missed both 3s they took.
Since UAβs win over UCLA, Simmons is shooting 33.3 percent from 3 and Markkanen is hitting 35.4 percent.
But Trier and Jackson-Cartwright have been offsetting factors. Trier went 4 of 5 from 3-point range in his return home to Seattle last Saturday, while Jackson-Cartwright was 7 of 10 between the two games in Washington after having made just 11 of 38 3s entering the weekend.
βHis 3-point shooting has really returned back to form,β Miller said. βIβve never really deviated in describing how well he shoots. I watch him every day. And Iβve never seen a shooter shoot the ball like he does daily in the spring, summer and fall and it not translate into the game. He got off to a bad start this season and getting hurt, it avalanched on him. But right now heβs shooting really really well.βΒ
Stanford grabbed 12 offensive rebounds and scored 17 second-chance points against the Wildcats on Feb. 8, numbers that center Chance Comanche said βwoke us up.β He said Arizona could be dominant because of its size but sometimes βtake plays off, including me.β
That trend continued last weekend. Arizona outrebounded WSU 42-28, allowed only six Cougar offensive rebounds and limited WSU double-double machine Josh Hawkinson to only eight rebounds. But then they were outrebounded by smaller Washington, 36-35, and gave up 16 offensive rebounds that led to nine second-chance points by the Huskies.
Had the Huskies been more efficient with those second chances, the game in Seattle might have been even scarier than it was for UA.
But, again, that may be a minor concern: The Wildcats were missing 7-foot center Dusan Ristic against the Huskies, and Arizona still has the biggest rebounding margin (plus-6.5) in Pac-12 games.Β
The recent struggles of Markkanen and Simmons again suggest that βfreshman wallβ clichΓ© may be real, and understandably so considering the burden the Wildcats have put on all three of their freshmen this season.
"Lauri, Kobi and Rawle have been the three constants on this yearβs team," Miller said. "You donβt think about that usually because freshmen are the hardest ones to make consistent. ... They have been the constants. They have been the big reason weβve been able to fight through all this adversity which says a lot about their talent because when you depend on some talented freshmen in that role itβs hard to tell how itβs going to go."
Meanwhile, Miller has fretted at times this season that even rugged senior Kadeem Allen has worn out toward the end of games because of all the weight on his shoulders.
But the Wildcats will have several days to take it easy next week before facing Arizona State in their regular-season finale, and will then enjoy an opening-day bye in the Pac-12 Tournament. Both Allen (pinkie) and Ristic (sprained ankle) received some mandatory rest last week because of their injuries.
Maybe that becomes a good thing down the road.
βThat would be (helpful) for him to be running at his best physically here down the stretch because we ask a lot of him,β Miller said. βDusan, same thing.βΒ
While losing at Oregon is no sin, the way the Wildcats lost is the kind of thing that can stick around in the back of your mind. In a 85-58 loss to the Ducks, UA allowed Oregon to shoot 65.2 percent, turned the ball over 13 times and struggled to shoot well (29.4 percent from 3-point range).
Since then, UA had two close wins over Stanford and Cal before appearing stronger against lesser competition (but with travel) in Washington last weekend.
This weekend should be more revealing. UA won't likely have much margin for error against USC and UCLA.
βBoth teams are very confident with their guard play, they score easily, and they play at fast tempos,β Miller said. βIn some ways they are similar in terms of their style. UCLA is just such an incredible offensive team. The way they score is β just, you donβt see many teams like them β and USC is very good."
View this profile on Instagram#ThisIsTucson π΅ (@this_is_tucson) β’ Instagram photos and videos
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