Despite low 'usage rate' at Arizona, Carter Bryant flying high entering NBA Draft

On the third tier of Kenpom’s player rankings for every college basketball team, just above the category of “benchwarmers,” is a slot for those with “limited roles.”

That’s where Carter Bryant sat at the end of Arizona’s 2024-25 season. He was put there because he was used on only 15.9% of the Wildcats’ possessions, meaning his actions — a made shot, turnover or missed shot that wasn’t offensively rebounded — ended only on that many of UA’s possessions.

Then, over the next two months, Bryant somehow blew up into a potential lottery pick in the NBA Draft that begins Wednesday.

It’s not a complete mystery. The NBA Draft is often about upside, and Arizona may offer the most drastic examples of why this year: It is offering up a 2,700-point scorer and former Pac-12 Player of the Year in Caleb Love … and Bryant, its ninth-leading scorer last season.

But Love isn’t projected to be drafted … and Bryant is projected to be a lottery pick.

The difference has a lot to do with 4 inches of height, four years of age and other measurables. As a 6-4, 23-year-old combo guard, Love is viewed with a lower ceiling, a potential late draft pick only because so many top college players returned to school for more certain income streams before the House settlement threatened to all but close the door on NIL.

The 6-8 Bryant, still just 19, is seen differently: He improved toward the end of last season and suggested a much higher ceiling at the NBA Combine, when he showed off a 6-11.75 wingspan and recorded a maximum (running) vertical leap of 39.5 inches.

He also measured 6-6.5 without shoes, meaning his length, height and athleticism fit him into exactly the sort of box NBA standout wings live in.

“He did really, really well at the combine,” ESPN analyst Jay Bilas said. “He’s what people would say is the prototypical 3-and-D guy, because he does make 3s, when he’s got time in a catch-and-shoot situation, he makes them at a good percentage.

“His long term potential is really good, and all the measurables that people like to talk about, he’s got that stuff down. Players that that fit that mold have done very well in the league.”

So why didn’t he play more at Arizona? Why was his “usage rate” so low, when his upside was so high?

It’s a puzzle that has put Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd in a tough spot.

“Bizzarly, (Bryant) came off the bench the entire year,” wrote Sam Vecenie in The Athletic.

“He is posting one of the lowest usage rates in this draft,” wrote ESPN’s Jonathan Givony.

“The counting stats won’t make a very compelling case for Bryant as a first-round talent,” wrote The Ringer’s Danny Chou.

But at the same time, Lloyd also now has a recruiting tool that might also help him deal with disgruntled current players: Play for Arizona, and don’t worry about your usage rate, because you can become a lottery pick anyway.

Maybe that’ll work in the future. For now, Lloyd has to defend himself.

“I know at the end of the year, people start looking at usage rate and minutes and things, and that’s really easy to do when you’re just looking through a microscope,” Lloyd said. “But there’s this macro part of coaching where you have to put a team together, and you’re not going to win with five guys.

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“We had good players, too, and other guys got opportunities. That’s just kind of how the seasons go sometimes.”

What happened is Lloyd started last season with KJ Lewis starting at small forward, with Bryant coming off the bench — and picking up four fouls while playing just 13 minutes in his first road game, at Wisconsin.

After Lewis committed intentional fouls in two straight November games, Lloyd moved Bryant into the starting role for three games, then pulled him out after he wasn’t effective in UA’s 57-54 loss to UCLA on Dec. 14, with the disjointed Wildcats then reeling with a 4-5 record.

From there, Lloyd started junior transfer Anthony Dell’Orso at small forward the rest of the way, while at the same time, the domino effect of a season-ending injury to center Motiejus Krivas left open more minutes for Bryant to play at both forward spots.

As a team, Arizona went on to finish in a third-place tie in the Big 12 and reach the Sweet 16, recovering from its poor start to finish about where it was expected to.

“Carter had some initial struggles, and whether that’s me, whether that’s him, who cares? That’s part of the process,” Lloyd said. “You know, Carter got a lot better throughout the course of the year and as he improved, we improved as a team. I don’t think there were any secrets about that. And Carter was a guy who had high character and was willing to play whatever role we needed him to.”

The bigger role he played toward the end of the season, generally, the better Bryant did.

His 3-point shooting rose from 26.9% in nonconference play to 38.6% in Big 12 play — and to 45.5% between the Big 12 and NCAA tournaments.

“I think we saw as the season progressed, I made a lot of big-time shots,” Bryant said during the NBA Combine last month. “I think that’s just a testament to my work, my coaching staff and the belief that the coaching staff had in me.”

Bryant’s defense also improved, and his “3-and-D” potential became more evident.

“He wasn’t a high-volume scorer last year at Arizona. That wasn’t his role,” Bilas said. “But he’s a really good defender that can guard multiple positions. He can get steals, deflections, he can block shots, and when he had an open shot, he hit those shots at around 38%.”

Then, when Bryant posted his eye-popping measurables at the combine, his potential was even clearer.

Considered a 50-50 bet to stay in the draft when he first declared, Bryant rose to the point where it didn’t make financial sense for him to return to school: Even if he lands just outside the lottery at No. 15, Bryant will still receive a guaranteed two-year contract worth more than $9 million, far more than he’d make even in NIL money at Arizona.

So he’s gone, ripped from the back end of Lloyd’s 2024-25 rotation and likely to land solidly in the NBA Draft.

Maybe that’s odd. Maybe not. But it’s pro basketball, as guided by what might be ahead.

“These evaluators are there in the business of projecting what the future could look like, and when you look at Carter, it’s not hard to see that the future is bright,” Lloyd said, later adding: “I’m not surprised at all with Carter’s standing at the NBA Draft. It makes a lot of sense.”