Scouting report: Arizona Wildcats vs. Colorado Buffaloes

Game info

Who: Arizona Wildcats (9-4) vs. Colorado Buffaloes (9-3)

Where: McKale Center, Tucson

When: 7 p.m. Thursday

Watch: FS1

Listen: 1290-AM, 107.5-FM

Follow: @TheWildcaster on Twitter / TheWildcaster on Facebook

Probable starters: Arizona

G Justin Coleman (5-10 senior)

G Brandon Williams (6-2 freshman)

F Brandon Randolph (6-6 sophomore)

F Emmanuel Akot (6-7 sophomore)

C Chase Jeter (6-10 junior)

Probable starters: Colorado

G McKinley Wright (6-0 sophomore)

G Shane Gatling (6-2 junior)

F D’Shawn Schwartz (6-7 sophomore)

F Tyler Bey (6-7 sophomore)

C Lucas Siewert (6-10 junior)

How they match up

Series history: Arizona has won 11 of its last 13 games with Colorado and has never lost to the Buffaloes at McKale Center since Colorado joined the Pac-12 in 2011-12. Arizona leads the series 18-13 overall and 14-4 in Pac-12 play.

This season: Arizona will also face the Buffs in Boulder, Colo., on Sun., Feb. 17.

Colorado overview: A strong sophomore class helps fuel a deep rotation of players who push the ball, get to the free-throw line often and collect the seventh-best percentage defensive rebounding opportunities in the country (as measured by Kenpom).

Everything starts with dynamic point guard McKinley Wright, a conference honors candidate who sees the floor well and rebounds much more effectively than his 6-0 size might suggest. Colorado’s sophomore core also includes physical wing D’Shawn Schwartz and athletic power forward Tyler Bey, who can create matchup problems in the post and has added some range to his jump shot. A fourth sophomore, center Dallas Walton, was lost for the season when he tore an ACL during a preseason practice, but the Buffs have “stretch-five” Brazilian big man Lucas Siewert hitting 48.8 percent from 3-point range. They also turn increasingly to physical, skilled 270-pounder Evan Battey, who has begun to shed the rust from two years of inactivity due to academic and physical issues. The Buffs’ returning core was joined by Shane Gatling, a junior college all-American last season who can play either guard spot. The Buffs actually get more experienced off the bench, with senior Namon Wright and junior Deleon Brown joining freshman Daylen Kountz in the backcourt.

With a defensive philosophy similar to Arizona’s, the Buffs have the nation’s 59th best defense and are aggressive getting to the line on the other side of the court. They shoot 47.0 percent, have the 37th highest ratio in free throws to field goals taken, while they get their shots blocked only 5.5 percent of the time (the 14th best mark in the country.) They play at the 63rd fastest adjusted tempo in Division I.

He said it

Sean Miller on the challenge of facing Colorado and sophomore guard McKinley Wright: “He’s a better version of himself.” pic.twitter.com/VEEiLKZKPP

— The Wildcaster (@TheWildcaster) January 1, 2019

“They have a team of great depth where they don’t just rely on their starting five. McKinley Wright is obviously is a very, very good player and he’s unique. One thing we learned a year ago is he’s a very good offensive rebounder. You don’t say that a lot about a point guard but he can really hurt you by getting second shots. We respect Colorado’s rebounding a great deal. I think that’s one of the strengths of their team. Tyler Bey is also excellent player. He was very good as a freshman and he’s added to what he did a year ago. I think he’s going to be one of the best forwards in the Pac-12. And I think the pace of play for Colorado this year is up. They thrive in transition and really seem to be playing at a faster tempo than maybe they were in the past year or so.”

— UA coach Sean Miller

Key player: McKinley Wright

Averaging 15.5 points and 8.5 assists in two regular-season games a year ago against the Wildcats, Wright is improved as a sophomore. He hasn’t been a big 3-point threat but shoots 50.8 percent inside the arc, gets to the free-throw line four times a game and sets up teammates well, averaging 5.8 assists with the 32nd best assist rate (assists divided by teammates’ field goals when he’s on the floor) in the country.

Key player: Brandon Williams

The UA freshman’s shooting numbers have slipped recently but Sean Miller says that’s in part because Wildcats have had to ask him to do a lot, making him play both guard spots and average a team-high 29.4 minutes a game. Williams has a 2.5-1 assist-turnover ratio and hits free throws at a 78.7 percent rate. But his duties won’t get any easier in Pac-12 play.

Turnovers in the air

When Dusan Ristic took a 3-pointer that he apparently wasn’t supposed to take against Utah at McKale Center last season — having missed a potential feed to Deandre Ayton — Sean Miller had one of his more angrily demonstrative reactions of the season.

Even though Ristic made the shot.

This season, Miller has made it clear again in both actions and words why he doesn’t like ill-advised shots, whether or not they go in.

After taking an average of 23.1 3-point shots over their first 11 games, and making just a third of them, the Wildcats took just 30 total over its last two – and made only four of them.

Asked why UA suddenly shot so much less often from outside, Miller said the team’s outside shooting percentages were “alarming” in some individual cases, while shot selection also appeared to be less than optimal.

“From an individual player perspective, taking a bad 3 is like a turnover,” Miller said. “Your percentages are poor. The ball is going to a lot of times ricochet off the rim. Sometimes it’s a bad miss, which then triggers a transition opportunity by the other team, and it’s nothing that’s going to help us win, even when once in a while those shots are going to go in.”

As a result, Miller said the Wildcats have been “working tirelessly shooting the ball” in recent practices, while they’ve also been cutting back on taking 3s in the first place.

There’s no doubt Miller will want the Wildcats to shoot carefully against Colorado: The Buffs rank seventh nationally in defensive rebounding percentage, collecting 77.5 percent of the missed shots its opponents throw up.

Mele Kalikimaka, Buffs

Maybe it’s hard to be miserable when you’re spending Christmas in Hawaii, but Colorado managed to do a pretty good job of it.

The Buffs entered the Diamond Head Classic at 8-1 but were upset 72-67 by Indiana State in the first round on Dec. 22, when they coughed up 19 turnovers and allowed the Sycamores to hit 9 of 16 3-pointers. That loss sank Colorado into the loser’s bracket … where host Hawaii awaited them the next day.

Suddenly thrust into a true road game, the Buffs took Hawaii into overtime but lost 70-62. They recovered only slightly on Christmas Day by beating Charlotte in the last-place game.

“We were very disappointed in our showing in Hawaii,” Colorado coach Tad Boyle said last week. “I didn’t feel our team played anywhere near our capabilities. … There’s a lot of things we need to shore up – offensively, rebounding the ball, you name it.”

Half-mile high test

Maybe it was playing at sea level over in Hawaii that did the Buffs in.

Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011-12, Colorado has struggled to play nearly as well at lower elevation road environments as it does at the mile-high Coors Events Center in Boulder. They are 7-29 in Pac-12 games away from home since 2013-14, with no more than two conference road wins per season since then.

While the Buffs have managed to win two road games already this season, those were also both at high altitude: At Air Force and at New Mexico.

Thursday’s test at McKale will be held at roughly halfway between sea level and Boulder’s elevation of 5,328 feet.

However, sophomore wing D’Shawn Schwartz appeared confident that the Buffs can win anywhere on the road this season.

“There’s not a team in (the league) that I don’t think we can beat,” Schwartz told Buffzone.com. “I think we can get some road wins, as opposed to last year. We’ve grown a little bit, and I think we have a chance to get some road wins starting on the third.”

“We just did it a couple weeks before Christmas when we went to New Mexico. The buildings are similar. The fan base is really into it and educated. They support their team.”

Numbers game

5

Of Colorado’s first seven Pac-12 games that will be played on the road.

8

Straight conference openers Arizona has won.

73

Arizona wins in 90 total games over the past five Pac-12 regular seasons, the best mark in the conference during that span (Oregon is second with 63 wins).