After the Pac-12’s Thursday games left Arizona and three other teams in a four-way tie for third, the Wildcats are locked into a range of 3-6 for a Pac-12 Tournament seed.
But, oddly, the Wildcats could gain a first-round Pac-12 Tournament bye as a No. 3 or 4 seed even if they lose to Washington. And if they beat Washington, they could be a No. 6.
That scenario would simply require all the favorites (as determined by Kenpom) to win on Saturday, including USC beating UCLA at the Galen Center and Colorado winning at Utah.
In that case, Oregon would win the conference outright at 13-5 and UCLA would be second at 12-6. Then there would be a four way tie at 11-7 with Arizona, Colorado, USC and ASU.
Arizona forward Ira Lee (11) makes enough space for himself to launch a shot over Washington State center Volodymyr Markovetskyy (15) in their Pac12 game at McKale Center, March 5, 2020, Tucson, Ariz.
Under Pac-12 tiebreaker rules, that tie is settled by comparing the collective records of everyone within that group of tied teams. Colorado wins that tie with a 3-1 record (UA is 3-2), with the Buffaloes having beaten USC twice and ASU once.
After pulling the Buffs out and giving them the No. 3 seed, the multiple-team tiebreaker is used again with the three remaining teams. This time, it’s a three-way tie at 2-2 among UA, ASU and USC, so then it comes down to who has the best record against the team occupying the highest spot in the standings – and only ASU has beaten Oregon, so the Sun Devils would be No. 4.
UA and USC would then be left to settle a two-way tie and, since they were 1-1 in head-to-head competition and neither team beat Oregon, it would come down to USC’s 2-0 record against UCLA. The Trojans would be No. 5 and Arizona No. 6.
However, Arizona could be as high as No. 3 if UCLA beats USC and the other favorites win. In that case, it’s a three-way tie for third with UA, Colorado and ASU and Arizona has a 2-1 record in that group because it was 1-1 against ASU and 1-0 against Colorado.
If Utah beats Colorado and Arizona beats Washington, the Wildcats would be a No. 5 seed if USC beats UCLA and a No. 4 if UCLA beats USC.
If UA loses to Washington, the Wildcats shouldn't fall any lower than sixth place, since Stanford is a game behind as of now -- and even if the Cardinal beats Oregon on Saturday and Arizona loses so that they both tie at 10-8, Arizona would have a tiebreaker edge over Stanford (and probably also in any group that formed at 10-8) because the Wildcats won the only time they played the Cardinal.
The Pac-12 actually listed all 64 potential scenarios (PDF attached below) and the Wildcats would get a No. 3 seed in nine of them and a No. 4 in another nine. Of those 18 potential first-round bye possibilities, there are five that allow the Wildcats to lose to Washington.
It might also help UA if UCLA beats USC: Twelve of the 18 first-round bye scenarios for Arizona include the Bruins winning that one at the Galen Center.
Bottom line: The Wildcats will likely will know by the time they tip off with Washington at 8 p.m. Saturday if they has to beat the Huskies to get a bye or whether they are already locked out of that possibility.
So why did Max Hazzard sit out the Feb. 27 game for what UA is calling a “personal” issue, return on Saturday to play against UCLA -- and then sit out Thursday’s UA-WSU game with a "personal” issue?
Sean Miller isn’t saying, nor is he defining what “personal” means in this case.
“I don’t have a comment on Max,” Miller said. “It’s, you know, personal.”
Miller did say Chase Jeter would return after Saturday following his two-game suspension for unspecified violation of team rules (not personal, apparently). Jeter is expected to go through the pregame Senior Day ceremonies.
The Wildcats did get 28 minutes, 12 points and some help defending CJ Elleby (4-14 shooting) from Josh Green, after he missed the Los Angeles trip with a sore lower back last week.
“It's not easy to miss a week, to be injured, not practice and be away from the team,” Miller said. “He's done a good job working his way back but I think part of what we struggled with in the first half is it just felt funny for him and maybe even a little bit for our team.
“He was back out there but was he really back out there? In the second half I thought he found his footing. And it was good to see him score double figures and regain the form that that we know he has. So moving forward, obviously he's a very, very key piece and it's good to see him play with confidence as well.”
Nico Mannion said he’s found confidence lately, too, having played well both at UCLA and while scoring 23 points on Thursday. But while Mannion said it’s been a result of extra practice, Miller acknowledged the pressure he’s been under.
“In fairness to him, it’s a world of expectations that that are almost impossible to meet,” Miller said. “If you look at the role that he has as a freshman, the amount of minutes that he's played and the games that he's played really well in, he's had a dynamic first year.
“We're all holding him to this standard of excellence in today's world of college basketball and it just takes time. It takes time to get comfortable. It takes time to learn what it feels like to play against the college zone. Last time we played at Washington, I remember how the game felt in the first half -- we just had a lot of young players playing against that type of zone for the first time. It's not to your advantage.
“But I think, watching Nico feel comfortable now, it makes sense because he's been through a lot of different experiences and he's very good. He’s talented and I think for him just watching that ball go in the basket takes some pressure off of him because as we all know, he's certainly a capable shooter.”
