'Way Too Early' lists like Wildcats to improve off 2020-21 season

There’s a good reason why the 2021-22 college basketball predictions flooding out this week are called “Way Too Early Top 25” lists.

Because they are. More so every spring.

Arizona ranged from No. 11 to unranked in the 2021-22 Top 25s, in part because the Wildcats are expecting relatively low roster turnover, but offseason rosters have become annually more fluid across college basketball.

There’s an increasing transfers, stay-or-go-pro decisions and spring recruiting efforts impacting rosters, all worsened by a pandemic that has forced college coaches to recruit off a computer for over a year now, prompting a boatload of recruiting misfires.

The Verbal Commits database listed 1,228 Division I players in the transfer portal as of Tuesday evening, more than three players per team, which is exactly what Arizona has already contributed to the portal with guards Jemarl Baker and Terrell Brown plus forward Ira Lee (and even walk-on Matt Weyand.)

The most glaring example of a team facing question marks might be UCLA, which faces key questions over whether standouts Chris Smith and Johnny Juzang will return, after Smith missed most of the season with a torn ACL and Juzang led the Bruins to the Final Four.

Nobody knows … and yet the Bruins were ranked No. 1 by USA Today, CBS Sports and NCAA.com while ESPN and Sporting News have the Bruins at No. 2.

“Coach Mick Cronin could lose some of his young roster to the NBA if one (namely Johnny Juzang) tries to capitalize on the epic Final Four showing vs. Gonzaga,” USA Today wrote. “But regardless, Cronin knows how to get a team to peak at the right time despite setbacks (including Smith’s injury). Tyger Campbell and Jaime Jáquez Jr. (if he stays) are both poised for even bigger seasons as rising juniors.”

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Arizona, meanwhile, was mentioned in about half of the Top 25s. The Wildcats were ranked 11th by 247Sports, 16th by ESPN and the San Jose Mercury News while CBS and Stadium both put the Wildcats at 21. Arizona was not ranked by USA Today, the Athletic, Sporting News, NCAA.com nor Sports Illustrated.

“A mostly forgotten team this past season, Arizona was a likely NCAA tournament team for most of the campaign despite having nothing to play for due to a self-imposed ban,” ESPN’s Jeff Borzello wrote. “It’s not clear the Wildcats will be able to play in next season’s NCAA tournament either (or if Sean Miller will still be the coach), but until a punishment is handed down, I’m rolling with them as a potential second-weekend team. Miller’s teams in the past have been known for defense, but this version was terrific offensively.

“James Akinjo is an excellent playmaker at the point of attack, and the Wildcats have an assortment of versatile frontcourt players to give teams problems. Benedict Mathurin, Kerr Kriisa, Dalen Terry, Azuolas Tubelis and Jordan Brown all made impacts during their first year in Tucson, and Miller also brings in a solid recruiting class led by top-100 prospect Shane Nowell.”

Akinjo has declared for the NBA Draft, though he might return, and Stadium’s Jeff Goodman noted that “if they bring back their core of Akinjo, Tubelis, and Mathurin while adding a trio of solid freshmen, there’s no reason to think they can’t compete for the Pac-12 title.”

Even though Oregon suffers annually heavy roster losses – and could again this spring – the Ducks have developed a reputation for figuring it out under coach Dana Altman and a recruiting philosophy that relies heavily on transfers.

As a result, Oregon was the only other Pac-12 team consistently ranked in the Top 25s, ranging from 12 by USA Today to 22 by CBS while ESPN and NCAA.com did not rank the Ducks at all.

“I just assume (Oregon) will find players in the spring to fill out the roster,” Borzello wrote. “Dana Altman does it every year, and he gets the team humming during the second half of the season. And he’ll probably do it again in 2021-22. Eugene Omoruyi, Chris Duarte, L.J. Figueroa and Amauri Hardy are all seniors, while Chandler Lawson is transferring.”

Despite USC’s expected loss of Pac-12 Player of the Year Evan Mobley, the Trojans were ranked No. 22 by The Athletic and the San Jose Mercury News.