Pac-12 QB rankings: UW, USC have best quarterback rooms; ASU, UA land in middle

No conference will feature a better array of starting quarterbacks in 2023 than the Pac-12, which claims the reigning Heisman Trophy winner (USC’s Caleb Williams), at least two contenders for the ’23 Heisman (Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon’s Bo Nix), plus a slew of gifted newcomers and experienced veterans.

But there’s more to quarterback play than the quality of the starter. The Quarterback Comfort Quotient (QBCQ) takes the backups into account as well. Teams with solid options (if the starter is injured) are best equipped to navigate the season.

The first QBCQ of 2023 examines the quarterback depth across the conference in its current form. We’ll publish a revised version after spring practice and a third edition at the close of training camp.

(Note: Previous school is listed for transfers; hometown is noted for high school signees.)

1. Washington

Projected starter: Michael Penix Jr.

Top backup: Dylan Morris

Comment: The Hotline currently gives the Huskies a slight edge over USC, although both are worthy of the top spot. While the difference between Penix and Williams is on the margins — they are ideal for their respective playbooks — we would favor Morris, who’s five years out of high school and has almost 500 career attempts, by a significant margin over either of USC’s inexperienced backups.

2. USC

Projected starter: Caleb Williams

Top backups: Miller Moss and Malachi Nelson (Los Alamitos, California)

Comment: The Trojans and Huskies very well could flip spots in the QBCQ rankings by the time September rolls around. We want to see more of Moss, who has thrown just 27 passes over two seasons, and Nelson, the five-star prospect and presumptive ’24 starter (once Williams leaves for the NFL), during USC’s spring practice and training camp. Suffice it to say, both the Trojans and UW are in enviable positions.

3. Oregon

Projected starter: Bo Nix

Top backups: Ty Thompson and Austin Novosad (Dripping Springs, Texas)

Comment: Nix played as well as Williams and Penix until a late-season injury, but we aren’t as comfortable with Oregon’s backup options as those at Washington and USC. Thompson is entering his third season and has 35 career attempts while Novosad is touted but raw. Also, we take coordinators into account when assessing the quarterback depth. Oregon has a new one (Will Stein); the Trojans and Huskies do not.

4. UCLA

Projected starter: Dante Moore (Detroit)

Top backups: Collin Schlee (Kent State), Ethan Garbers and Justyn Martin

Comment: For the first time since 2017, the Bruins won’t have Dorian Thompson-Robinson handling the quarterback duties. Moore was the third-ranked prospect in the prep class of ’23; Garbers has thrown 88 career passes and knows the system well; Schlee might be the most capable after spending 2022 as Kent State’s full-time starter. We don’t see an ideal option, but there are three good ones for Chip Kelly to assess.

5. Oregon State

Projected starter: DJ Uiagalelei (Clemson)

Top backups: Ben Gulbranson and Aidan Chiles (Downey, California)

Comment: OSU coach Jonathan Smith has overhauled his quarterback room — and for good reason: It was the weakest link during an impressive season. (Chance Nolan, the Week 1 starter, has departed.) Uiagalelei is a former blue-chip prospect from Southern California who struggled at Clemson. If the new surroundings bring out his best — his brother, Matayo, will be a freshman edge rusher at Oregon — then OSU should contend for the conference title.

6. Arizona State

Projected starter: Jaden Rashada (Pittsburgh, California)

Top backups: Trenton Bourguet, Drew Pyne (Notre Dame)

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Comment: One of the most interesting quarterback competitions will unfold in Tempe, where Bourguet, the starter for the second half of ’22, is expected to push the high-profile newcomers. Is Rashada, who signed with Florida but was released from his letter of intent, ready to run the offense as a rookie? Pyne was impressive, at times, in South Bend. First-year coach Kenny Dillingham has three chances to find one reliable starter.

7. Arizona

Projected starter: Jayden de Laura

Top backups: Noah Fifita and Brayden Dorman (Colorado Springs, Colorado)

Comment: The Wildcats’ depth continues to improve with the addition of Dorman, a four-star recruit, and Fifita’s experience in the system. But Arizona won’t make the jump to bowl eligibility without improved play from the starter, de Laura. Will Dorman and Fifita create legitimate competition for the job? And if not — if there is no push from behind — will de Laura make the necessary upgrades in his efficiency? The answer is seven months away.

8. Utah

Projected starter: Cam Rising

Top backup: Bryson Barnes

Comment: This is sure to be one of the most controversial rankings, so let’s explain: Rising suffered a serious leg injury in the Rose Bowl and will miss offseason workouts with what Kyle Whittingham called a “fairly extensive rehab.” He’s expected to play in the season opener (Florida), but in what state of readiness? Will he be close to top form? Until we have a better sense for the recovery, Rising counts as a major question for Week 1. The post-spring and preseason editions of the QBCQ will be updated to reflect Rising’s progress at those points.

9. Colorado

Projected starter: Shedeur Sanders (Jackson State)

Top backup: Drew Carter

Comment: The Buffaloes had five scholarship quarterbacks on the roster last season — a metaphor for the debacle if ever there was one — and only Carter has remained through the coaching transition. Everything depends on Sanders, who played at an elite level against second-tier opponents at Jackson State. Our view: Even in a best-case scenario, his transition to Power Five competition will be uneven.

10. Washington State

Projected starter: Cam Ward

Top backup: John Mateer

Comment: Ward was inconsistent last season after joining the Cougars from Incarnate Word and has lost his offensive coordinator, Eric Morris, who left WSU to become the North Texas head coach. While it’s reasonable to assume Year 2 improvement, we aren’t convinced Ward will make the jump to the Pac-12’s elite tier. Nor are we confident in the backup options in the event of injury. Combine those issues, and you get the No. 10 ranking.

11. Cal

Projected starter: Sam Jackson (TCU)

Top backup: Fernando Mendoza

Comment: Ten teams have Heisman Trophy contenders, returning starters or high-level newcomers. The two that don’t have any of those positive options at quarterback reside in the Bay Area. Jack Plummer, who started for the Bears in 2022, entered the transfer portal along with backup Kai Millner. As a result, Cal needs Jackson, a former four-star recruit who threw six passes for the Horned Frogs, to take control of the job. Don’t be surprised if the Bears add another quarterback this spring.

12. Stanford

Projected starter: Ari Patu

Top backups: Ashton Daniels and Myles Jackson (Long Beach, California)

Comment: We considered flipping Stanford and Cal, but the exact order doesn’t matter — both programs are starting over at the position and possess limited options. Patu played sparingly for two years behind Tanner McKee and is an unknown quantity of the first order. That goes double for Daniels, and there’s no indication Jackson will be ready to start Week 1. New coach Troy Taylor was a college (Cal) and NFL quarterback. His teaching skills will be put to a supreme test.