Does rebuilding Arizona have to defeat ASU for 2022 to be deemed a success?

The Territorial Cup heals all wounds. Winning it forgives all sins.

Every Arizona fan remembers the last time the Wildcats won it. They literally ran Arizona State out of Tucson. Arizona rushed for a school-record 511 yards in a 56-35 victory. The Wildcats didn’t throw a pass in the second half of that 2016 matchup.

For the Cats and their fans, it was undeniably glorious. It was an unforgettable Friday night at Arizona Stadium.

Do you remember what preceded it?

Injury-riddled Arizona had lost eight in a row. It had dropped every single Pac-12 game it had played. Only one was decided by single digits.

It was a rotten season that just so happened to have a happy ending. It was not a successful campaign, despite that happy ending.

Why? Because it was the Wildcats’ first losing season under Rich Rodriguez. Arizona had gone to four consecutive bowl games under RichRod. Its worst record during that span was 7-6.

Context means so much when sizing up a program’s success or failure. Which brings us to the current-day Cats.

Arizona takes a 4-7 record into Friday afternoon’s game against ASU. It’s a vast improvement over what preceded it.

The Wildcats won one game in 2021. They won none the previous year, which was shortened by COVID. They lost seven in a row to end the season before that one, the start of a losing streak that would stretch across three seasons and two coaching staffs.

By the time the 96th Territorial Cup matchup ends, Arizona will be either 5-7 or 4-8. There isn’t much difference between those marks; neither will earn the Wildcats a bowl berth.

But some would tell you that the gap between 5-7 and 4-8 – when the differentiator is the Territorial Cup – is as wide as the Grand Canyon. It means that much.

Does that label apply to this particular season? Is this year different in some way because of the context in which this game is taking place?

As kickoff approaches, let’s examine both sides of the argument.

The 4-8 debate

To put the current state of Arizona football in the proper context, we have to go back.

Jedd Fisch became the Wildcats’ coach 12 days after the worst loss in program history — a 70-7 debacle against ASU that sealed predecessor Kevin Sumlin’s fate.

That was Arizona’s 12th loss in a row. The program was in a free-fall. Fisch knew — heck, everybody knew — that the rebuilding process would be slow and, at times, painful.

After the Wildcats went 1-11 in Fisch’s first season — Year Zero, as he subsequently called it — the oddsmakers set a low bar for the follow-up. Their initial projected win total, for betting purposes, was 2.5. It eventually settled at three.

Arizona hit that number on Oct. 1. The Wildcats beat it on Nov. 12. No matter what happens Friday, they already have surpassed expectations.

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A 4-8 record wouldn’t be anything to brag about. It wouldn’t earn Fisch any bonuses. But it would represent progress.

If we had told you before the season that Arizona would go 4-8, would you have taken it? Given where the Wildcats have been, you probably would have.

A 4-8 record would be only win greater than the aforementioned 3-9 of 2016, which we deemed a failure. But after 70-7, after 1-11, after a 20-game skid that only ended last November, it’d have to be viewed as a success. Right?

Of course, not all 4-8 seasons are created equal. As mentioned, context is everything. Expectations work on a sliding scale.

Arizona had something greater within its reach after it upset UCLA two weeks ago. That 34-28 triumph at the Rose Bowl reset the expectations for 2022. The Wildcats had a chance to finish .500 and earn a bowl bid with two home games left against a good but unranked Washington State club and a sub.-500 ASU squad wondering who its next coach will be.

In that context, 4-8 would be a massive disappointment.

Pass/fail test

Let’s go back again. Let’s go back to just before the UCLA game, when Arizona was 3-6, riding a four-game losing streak and hoping to survive one more battle with a ranked opponent.

If we had told you that afternoon that the Wildcats would finish 4-8 — via a stunning win over the Bruins, followed by a pair of losses — would you have taken it? Maybe.

But if we had told that the Cats would finish 4-8 — with the lone win coming over the Sun Devils — well, who could say no to that?

Now that we know where Arizona stands, we have to look at it differently. With a win over ASU, the Wildcats would finish 5-7.

Fisch rarely if ever talks about the Wildcats’ record. He’s all about long-term goals, daily improvement, building.

But if Arizona could win five games in his second season — after winning the same amount over the previous three seasons — that’d really be something.

Five wins including a victory over ASU? That’d be a smashing success for a program that hit its nadir less than two years ago.

Fisch already has won over skeptical fans with his relentless recruiting and persistent positivity. With a win Friday, he’d be a made man. The two coaches who preceded him, Rodriguez and Sumlin, went 2-7 against ASU.

Fisch has coached in plenty of rivalry games — Florida-Florida State, Minnesota-Wisconsin, Miami-Florida State, Michigan-Ohio State, UCLA-USC. He knew exactly what he was getting into when he took the UA job.

Fair or unfair, regardless of context, he’ll be judged by what happens Friday.

“I was hired after the game in 2020,” Fisch said. “So I understand the significance.”

Photos: Every U of A vs. ASU football game since 1975