Cats Stats: Turnovers, home field and other factors that could decide the Territorial Cup

Factors that could decide the Territorial Cup

It’s almost here. The 2018 Territorial Cup will determine whether the Arizona Wildcats make a bowl game in Kevin Sumlin’s first season. It will determine whether Arizona matches rival Arizona State at 6-6 or whether the Sun Devils can claim bragging rights for their first-year coach, Herm Edwards.

What factors might determine the outcome? Let’s compare the teams from a variety of numerical angles and see what we can figure out:

Arizona vs. ASU

This is the view from 30,000 feet — the big-picture team stats that might show what separates the 5-6 Wildcats from the 6-5 Sun Devils.

The teams score about the same number of points per game; Arizona is at 30.5, ASU is at 29.8. The Sun Devils are superior defensively, though: They’re allowing 23.7 points per game compared to the Wildcats’ 31.8. The latter leaped over 30 because of the 69-point debacle in Pullman last week.

(ASU didn’t face league-leading Washington State this season. But before you decry their schedule, please note that the Sun Devils did have to play Washington and Stanford. The traditional North Division powers are back on the Wildcats’ slate next season.)

ASU is yielding 9.1 fewer points per game than last season, a credit to Edwards and ace defensive coordinator Danny Gonzales, whom Edwards brought over from San Diego State. The Sun Devils also are allowing 58.7 fewer yards per game.

The biggest difference between Arizona’s defensive profile and ASU’s can be found in pass defense. The Wildcats fell to last in the Pac-12 at 269.9 yards allowed per game after coughing up 482 at Washington State. The Sun Devils are sixth at 234.7 — a 40.2-yard improvement from 2017.

Arizona is the most-penalized team in the conference. Technically, the UA is tied with USC at 8.0 flags per game, but the Wildcats’ have cost them 34 more yards.

ASU ranks seventh in penalty yards per game, at 55.0 — 21.9 fewer than Arizona. But how much does that really matter? The Wildcats have been penalized 10 or more times in four games … and won all four. It has happened once to the Sun Devils — in their season-opening victory over UTSA.

Another one from the Misleading Stats File: The official red-zone defense numbers suggest Arizona is superior in this area, allowing a score 74.4 percent of the time, the second-best rate in the Pac-12. ASU is seventh at 84.6.

But any coach or player will tell you that touchdown percentage is the more relevant measure of success. The Sun Devils are actually better at keeping opponents out of the end zone. Foes have scored TDs on 59.0 percent of their red-zone trips against ASU. UA opponents are at 62.8 percent.

The most notable statistical difference between the longstanding rivals in 2018 is turnover margin. ASU is No. 1 in the Pac-12 at plus-7; Arizona is ninth at minus-2

Remarkably, no Sun Devils running back has lost a fumble — or put the ball on the ground — in 853 consecutive carries, dating to the 2016 season. That incredible streak, which doesn’t include receptions by tailbacks, is now 30 games long.

This season alone, UA tailbacks have fumbled nine times, losing six.

Home vs. away

Only 113 miles separate Arizona Stadium from Sun Devil Stadium, but head-to-head results indicate a much wider gap.

If you’re looking for a trend in the series, here it is: The home team has won each of the past five meetings.

Over the years, the Wildcats own a 31-19 advantage playing in Tucson, including a 24-18 record at Arizona Stadium.

The teams’ performances this year suggest that home field will play a sizable role in the outcome. Arizona is 4-2 at home, 1-4 on the road. ASU is also 1-4 on the road. The Sun Devils finished 5-1 at home.

The degree to which the Wildcats are a better team at home is best illustrated by their point differential. In six home games, Arizona has an average point differential of plus-11. In five road games, it’s minus-16. That’s a 27-point swing!

In three of its five road games — Houston, Utah and Washington State — Arizona simply got outclassed. Although it has the same road record, ASU has been much more competitive away from Tempe.

The Sun Devils’ average point differential on the road is minus-4. ASU has lost three road games by a touchdown and the other by two points.

What has enabled the Sun Devils to stay close on the road? It goes back to turnover margin. ASU is plus-3 at home … and plus-4 on the road. Arizona, meanwhile, is plus-6 at home and minus-4 on the road.

The Sun Devils’ knack for protecting the ball hasn’t translated to victories outside of Tempe, but they haven’t given opponents many extra possessions with favorable field position.

ASU quarterback Manny Wilkins has thrown four interceptions this season — none on the road.

Tate vs. Wilkins

This is the first of three offensive-player comps. With all due respect to the defense, offense has ruled this series. The winning team has scored at least 41 points in the past six meetings.

Wilkins has been remarkably consistent for ASU. His completion percentages over the past three seasons: 63.3, 63.4, 63.4. His average yards per attempt: 7.49, 7.98, 7.95.

Wilkins has a career-best 18-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season, but the area where he and the Sun Devils have improved the most is avoiding sacks. Wilkins was sacked 34 times in 2016 and 40 times last year. This year? Just 15. As a result, Wilkins has a career-high 359 rushing yards.

Khalil Tate’s lack of rushing yardage remains one of the most confounding mysteries in college football. Despite a recent uptick in attempts and a pair of 25-plus-yard runs, Tate still has only 178 net rushing yards.

His passing has improved immensely since his return from injury, though. In his past three games, Tate has a 63.5 percent completion rate and a 12-3 TD-INT ratio. For the season, his 8.55 yards per attempt are approaching last season’s gaudy 8.89-yard figure.

Interestingly, Wilkins and Tate have almost identical numbers in the red zone. Wilkins has an 8-0 TD-INT ratio inside the 20 while completing 50 percent of his passes. Tate has a 10-0 ratio while completing … 50 percent of his passes.

The biggest difference between them is what happens when they face third-and-long situations. When it’s third-and-8 or longer, Wilkins has completed 22 of 38 passes — 57.9 percent. Tate is just 12 of 34 in those situations — 35.3 percent.

Taylor vs. Benjamin

Arizona’s J.J. Taylor ranks third in the Pac-12 with 1,290 rushing yards. ASU’s Eno Benjamin ranks first with 1,444.

Benjamin has been the more consistent performer. He has eight games with 100 or more yards. The Sun Devils are 5-3 when that happens.

Oddly, Benjamin gained 38 yards or less in his other three games. ASU lost two of those, with the only win coming by a score of 16-13 over Michigan State. Benjamin caught six passes for a season-high 54 yards in that game.

Taylor has only four 100-yard games, but he rushed for at least 154 yards in all of them. Arizona is 3-1 when Taylor tops the century mark, 2-5 when he doesn’t.

Both players get stronger as games get longer, recording their highest average per carry in the fourth quarter. Benjamin averages 6.6 yards per rush in the fourth, Taylor 6.7.

Both players feasted on Oregon State’s porous run defense. Benjamin rushed for 312 yards and three touchdowns against the Beavers. Taylor totaled 284 yards and two scores.

Benjamin (5-10, 201) is the bigger back and has gotten more opportunities inside the 10-yard line. The sophomore has 27 carries inside the 10 and has scored seven touchdowns. Taylor (5-6, 184) has 13 carries and three TDs.

Poindexter vs. Harry

The leading receivers in this matchup have similar bodies but different bodies of work.

ASU’s N’Keal Harry (6-4, 213) has been a go-to guy since the moment he arrived in Tempe, compiling 209 receptions, 2,834 yards and 22 touchdowns in three seasons.

Harry’s nine touchdowns are one fewer than Shawn Poindexter’s 10, despite Harry seeing way more passes come his way. Harry’s 69 receptions represent 32.9 percent of ASU’s total pass completions. He has gotten 31.9 percent of the Sun Devils’ targets (individual targets divided by team pass attempts).

Poindexter’s 36 receptions are a career high but represent just 18.4 percent of Arizona’s total pass completions. He has a 17.7 percent target share.

Both players come in hot. Harry has three consecutive 100-yard games, giving him four for the season. Poindexter (6-5, 218) has eight touchdowns in his past four games and has scored on six straight receptions.

One final nugget: Harry has been much less effective on the road, putting up a 28-368-2 line in five away games vs. 41-665-7 in six games at Sun Devil Stadium.