Pro Football Focus’ preseason NFL draft guide contains all sorts of interesting statistical nuggets about returning, draft-eligible college players – including several Arizona Wildcats.
The guide is only available via subscription, but we ponied up for one to share some of that information with you heading into Week 1. Hopefully this will become a semi-regular feature throughout the season.
We’ll focus the bulk of this post on quarterback Brandon Dawkins, the presumptive starter against Northern Arizona on Saturday night. Here’s some of what was learned from PFF’s data from the 2016 season:
* Dawkins ranked 62nd out of 82 quarterbacks in “adjusted completion percentage.” To derive that figure, PFF adds dropped passes and takes away throwaways, spikes, batted balls and flutter balls resulting from being hit while throwing. Dawkins came in at 66.9 percent – one spot behind Wyoming first-round prospect Josh Allen (67.0) and three ahead of Florida State potential breakout star Deondre Francois (66.5).
* Dawkins had the fourth-lowest drop percentage (3.2) among the 82 quarterbacks, meaning his receivers caught the ball when given the chance the vast majority of the time last season.
* Dawkins had the fourth-most throwaways with 27. He also had the 12th-fewest pass attempts (185), so his throwaway percentage (a stat of my own creation) was 14.6 percent. Among the three QBs with more throwaways, their highest percentage was 7.9. What does this mean? To me, it says that Dawkins was too slow to recognize or anticipate throws. He’d try to run instead, and if those lanes were closed, he’d throw the ball away. It isn’t a turnover, but it isn’t a productive play either.
* Dawkins ranked a respectable 36th in adjusted completion percentage (59.4 percent) under pressure, but again, he threw the ball away at an extremely high rate – 21 times in 54 attempts. His actual completion rate in those situations was just 33.3 percent.
* Dawkins ranked 18th in adjusted completion percentage on deep passes – those traveling more than 20 yards in the air – at 46.7 percent.
Some additional numbers of interest pertaining to other Wildcats:
* Receiver Shun Brown dropped only one of 30 catchable passes for a 3.3 percent drop rate.
* Guard Christian Boettcher, whom I wrote about this week, had the highest pass-block efficiency among returning UA linemen at 98.0 percent. It just so happened that some of Boettcher’s mistakes were glaring (see the Utah game).
* Center Nathan Eldridge did not allow a sack in 402 pass-block snaps.
* DeAndre’ Miller was Arizona’s most effective pass rusher among returnees with a 7.5 pass-rush productivity score. PFF credited Miller with two sacks, three hits and seven hurries in 127 snaps. He was injured for much of the season and won’t play in Week 1 after July foot surgery.
* Jace Whittaker and Dane Cruikshank, last year’s starting cornerbacks, both struggled in coverage, ranking near the bottom in yards allowed per cover snap. Arizona moved Cruikshank to safety this season.
* Safety Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles had 17 missed tackles on run snaps last season, tied for second most among the safeties PFF listed. That is consistent with my film review of Flannigan-Fowles’ performance in 2016, when he showed great playmaking promise but also some inconsistency in his game.
