Greg Hansen: NBA odds don't favor Rawle Alkins, other Arizona Wildcats who leave early
- Updated
History shows that second-round picks typically don't pan out.
- Greg Hansen Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
Attention Chance Comanche, Rawle Alkins, Kobi Simmons, Allonzo Trier and all college basketball ships at sea:
Pro basketball is insanely difficult.
Nick Johnson, the Pac-12’s 2014 Player of the Year, the epitome of a team-first, leave-it-all-on-the-floor dynamo, is now playing for Bayern Munich of Germany’s EuroLeague.
Johnson doesn’t start. He averages 17 minutes and eight points per game. He sits behind two undrafted guards: Reggie Redding of Villanova and Bryce Taylor of Oregon, neither of whom played a minute in the NBA.
Johnson was a second-round NBA draft pick, No. 42 overall. He played in 28 NBA games before beginning the eternal bounce from D-League to EuroLeague that engulfs the great majority of second-round picks.
Johnson is only 24, yet the NBA has apparently labeled him a nonprospect. Realistically, Comanche, Trier, Alkins and Simmons can only hope to someday match Johnson’s pro career.
That’s reality. If Nick Johnson can’t make it, few can.
- Greg Hansen Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
Of the 30 second-round picks in Johnson’s 2014 draft, 21 are not in the NBA. Seven never played a minute in the NBA. Only two — Denver center Nikola Jokic and Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson — average even 24 minutes per game.
At best, Comanche, Alkins, Simmons and Trier (if he opts to leave school) would be second-round picks in June. It’s possible none would be drafted.
The cliché about “testing the waters” tells half the story. Most of those second-round hopefuls who bolt for the NBA forever sink.
In the last 10 NBA drafts, 26 Pac-12 players were second-round selections. Here’s the sobering data:
- Greg Hansen Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
• Two of the 26 became starters: UCLA’s Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Washington guard Isaiah Thomas.
- Greg Hansen Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
• Two more of the 26 got a coveted “second contract”: Chase Budinger and Allen Crabbe. Budinger is now playing in Italy. (Several younger players, such as UCLA’s Norman Powell, Stanford’s Dwight Powell and Colorado’s Spencer Dinwiddie are reserves working on getting a second contract.)
- Greg Hansen Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
• Oregon’s Joseph Young, the 2015 Pac-12 Player of the Year, is shooting 21 percent from 3-point range; that was his strength as a Duck. In two seasons with the Indiana Pacers, Young has been a “DNP” (did not play) in 85 games.
- Greg Hansen Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
• Even those drafted high in the second round have struggled mightily. UCLA’s Tyler Honeycutt, No. 35 overall in 2011, played in 24 NBA games and is now in Turkey. Arizona’s Marcus Williams, selected No. 33 in 2007, scored 14 NBA points. He is out of basketball after bouncing through the D-League and Asia.
- Greg Hansen Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
The second round of the NBA draft has little in common with the first round. Contracts in the first round are guaranteed. Most of the first 20 selected are considered “can’t miss.” But the greater difference is that the second round is more a draft of accomplished collegians and foreign players rather than testing-the-waters college underclassmen.
In the last 10 drafts, the second round — 300 picks — has included 133 college seniors and 80 foreign players. That’s 71 percent of the second round. If the NBA doesn’t evaluate a college underclassmen as a first-round pick, it generally passes and prefers experience.
The security of the first round is overwhelming. Nine years ago, in the 2008 draft, seven Pac-12 players were selected in the top 30. All but one — O.J. Mayo — remain active in the NBA:
- Greg Hansen Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
• UCLA’s Russell Westbrook has been paid $103 million, according to figures from basketball-reference.com.
• UCLA’s Kevin Love has earned $99 million.
• Arizona’s Jerryd Bayless has been paid $31 million.
• Cal’s Ryan Anderson has banked $59 million.
• Stanford’s Lopez twins, Brook and Robin, have made a combined $111 million during their time in the league.
- Greg Hansen Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
With the exception of Mbah a Moute, their Pac-12 colleagues who were second-round choices the same year were not so fortunate:
• No. 38, WSU’s Kyle Weaver, who appeared in 73 NBA games, is playing in Poland on his 12th Euro team.
• No. 48, Oregon’s Malik Hairston, played in 62 NBA games and with four Euro teams. He’s playing professoinally in Jerusalem.
• No. 52, Cal’s DeVon Hardin, did not play in the NBA. He has instead played for 14 overseas teams in places ranging from Minsk to the Philippines.
• No. 54, Oregon’s Maarty Leunen, did not play in the NBA and is now on an Italian team.
- Greg Hansen Arizona Daily Star
- Updated
This isn’t to suggest that Comanche, Simmons or Trier won’t someday be productive (and wealthy) NBA players, although none have been as much as All-Pac-12 players.
By comparison, All-Pac-12 standouts selected in the second round such as Washington’s Jon Brockman, USC’s Gabe Pruitt and UCLA’s Honeycutt never played more than two full NBA seasons. Pruitt is out of basketball. Honeycutt is in Turkey and Brockman Germany.
The second round of the NBA draft is mostly fool’s gold. In the last 10 years, only 18 of the 300 selected averaged more than 24 minutes per game. Sometimes a Draymond Green, No. 35 in 2012, and a DeAndre Jordan, No. 35 in 2008, beat the odds.
Or put it this way: in the last 25 years, Arizona has had 16 second-round draftees. Only three stuck for more than brief part-time gigs: Gilbert Arenas, Luke Walton and Budinger.
Only Arenas was a full-time starter.
Gentlemen, proceed at your own risk.
Attention Chance Comanche, Rawle Alkins, Kobi Simmons, Allonzo Trier and all college basketball ships at sea:
Pro basketball is insanely difficult.
Nick Johnson, the Pac-12’s 2014 Player of the Year, the epitome of a team-first, leave-it-all-on-the-floor dynamo, is now playing for Bayern Munich of Germany’s EuroLeague.
Johnson doesn’t start. He averages 17 minutes and eight points per game. He sits behind two undrafted guards: Reggie Redding of Villanova and Bryce Taylor of Oregon, neither of whom played a minute in the NBA.
Johnson was a second-round NBA draft pick, No. 42 overall. He played in 28 NBA games before beginning the eternal bounce from D-League to EuroLeague that engulfs the great majority of second-round picks.
Johnson is only 24, yet the NBA has apparently labeled him a nonprospect. Realistically, Comanche, Trier, Alkins and Simmons can only hope to someday match Johnson’s pro career.
That’s reality. If Nick Johnson can’t make it, few can.
Of the 30 second-round picks in Johnson’s 2014 draft, 21 are not in the NBA. Seven never played a minute in the NBA. Only two — Denver center Nikola Jokic and Lakers guard Jordan Clarkson — average even 24 minutes per game.
At best, Comanche, Alkins, Simmons and Trier (if he opts to leave school) would be second-round picks in June. It’s possible none would be drafted.
The cliché about “testing the waters” tells half the story. Most of those second-round hopefuls who bolt for the NBA forever sink.
In the last 10 NBA drafts, 26 Pac-12 players were second-round selections. Here’s the sobering data:
• Two of the 26 became starters: UCLA’s Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Washington guard Isaiah Thomas.
• Two more of the 26 got a coveted “second contract”: Chase Budinger and Allen Crabbe. Budinger is now playing in Italy. (Several younger players, such as UCLA’s Norman Powell, Stanford’s Dwight Powell and Colorado’s Spencer Dinwiddie are reserves working on getting a second contract.)
• Oregon’s Joseph Young, the 2015 Pac-12 Player of the Year, is shooting 21 percent from 3-point range; that was his strength as a Duck. In two seasons with the Indiana Pacers, Young has been a “DNP” (did not play) in 85 games.
• Even those drafted high in the second round have struggled mightily. UCLA’s Tyler Honeycutt, No. 35 overall in 2011, played in 24 NBA games and is now in Turkey. Arizona’s Marcus Williams, selected No. 33 in 2007, scored 14 NBA points. He is out of basketball after bouncing through the D-League and Asia.
The second round of the NBA draft has little in common with the first round. Contracts in the first round are guaranteed. Most of the first 20 selected are considered “can’t miss.” But the greater difference is that the second round is more a draft of accomplished collegians and foreign players rather than testing-the-waters college underclassmen.
In the last 10 drafts, the second round — 300 picks — has included 133 college seniors and 80 foreign players. That’s 71 percent of the second round. If the NBA doesn’t evaluate a college underclassmen as a first-round pick, it generally passes and prefers experience.
The security of the first round is overwhelming. Nine years ago, in the 2008 draft, seven Pac-12 players were selected in the top 30. All but one — O.J. Mayo — remain active in the NBA:
• UCLA’s Russell Westbrook has been paid $103 million, according to figures from basketball-reference.com.
• UCLA’s Kevin Love has earned $99 million.
• Arizona’s Jerryd Bayless has been paid $31 million.
• Cal’s Ryan Anderson has banked $59 million.
• Stanford’s Lopez twins, Brook and Robin, have made a combined $111 million during their time in the league.
With the exception of Mbah a Moute, their Pac-12 colleagues who were second-round choices the same year were not so fortunate:
• No. 38, WSU’s Kyle Weaver, who appeared in 73 NBA games, is playing in Poland on his 12th Euro team.
• No. 48, Oregon’s Malik Hairston, played in 62 NBA games and with four Euro teams. He’s playing professoinally in Jerusalem.
• No. 52, Cal’s DeVon Hardin, did not play in the NBA. He has instead played for 14 overseas teams in places ranging from Minsk to the Philippines.
• No. 54, Oregon’s Maarty Leunen, did not play in the NBA and is now on an Italian team.
This isn’t to suggest that Comanche, Simmons or Trier won’t someday be productive (and wealthy) NBA players, although none have been as much as All-Pac-12 players.
By comparison, All-Pac-12 standouts selected in the second round such as Washington’s Jon Brockman, USC’s Gabe Pruitt and UCLA’s Honeycutt never played more than two full NBA seasons. Pruitt is out of basketball. Honeycutt is in Turkey and Brockman Germany.
The second round of the NBA draft is mostly fool’s gold. In the last 10 years, only 18 of the 300 selected averaged more than 24 minutes per game. Sometimes a Draymond Green, No. 35 in 2012, and a DeAndre Jordan, No. 35 in 2008, beat the odds.
Or put it this way: in the last 25 years, Arizona has had 16 second-round draftees. Only three stuck for more than brief part-time gigs: Gilbert Arenas, Luke Walton and Budinger.
Only Arenas was a full-time starter.
Gentlemen, proceed at your own risk.
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