With Selection Sunday mere days away, the Big 12's bubble exposure is remarkably limited.
Seven teams are headed to March Madness regardless of their performance in the conference tournament this week in Kansas City. One team is teetering (UCF). And that's it.
Nobody else is close to qualifying for the at-large field.
In order to claim a ninth bid to the NCAA Tournament — that would be a conference record, by the way — the Big 12 needs a bottom-feeder to get hot and stay hot through multiple matchups this week against the heavyweights.
The odds are long.
For the teams planning to see their names appear on Sunday (CBS at 3 p.m.), the lingering questions involve seeds, locations and opponents.
What should they expect?
Here's a look at the seed scenarios for each.
Arizona
Best case: No. 1
Arizona head coach Tommy Lloyd in the second half vs. Colorado, March 7, 2026, in Boulder, Colo.
Worst case: No. 1
Comment: Arizona is locked into the top line — and has been for weeks — even with an early loss in Kansas City. Had the Wildcats been destined for a Thursday date in the round of 64, the Hotline might have made the case that losing in the Big 12 semifinals would be beneficial. But they are headed to San Diego, a Friday-Sunday regional, so the extra rest is baked in.
BYU
Best case: No. 7
Worst case: No. 10
Comment: Our downside projection for BYU is vastly more cynical than most, and here's why: The selection committee will assess the Cougars based on how they performed with the roster available in the NCAAs. Their 3-4 record since Richie Saunders' season-ending injury — it includes two losses to teams that won't make the tournament field (Cincinnati and West Virginia) — could weigh heavily.
Houston
Best case: No. 1
Worst case: No. 2
Comment: How might the Cougars climb onto the top line, given the prevailing sentiment that a No. 2 seed is inevitable? They would need to win the Big 12 Tournament, beating Arizona in the process, and get favorable results elsewhere. Specifically, Florida and UConn would need to lose early in the SEC and Big East tournaments, respectively.
Iowa State
Best case: No. 2
Worst case: No. 4
Comment: The Cyclones lost their chance for a top seed when they stumbled at home against Texas Tech. A trophy in Kansas City assuredly would be enough to produce a No. 2 seed. But we see downside risk if they lose before the Big 12 championship game.
Kansas
Best case: No. 2
Worst case: No. 5
Comment: If everything breaks right for the Jayhawks — if they win the Big 12 Tournament and star freshman Darryn Peterson is engaged and impactful — we would not be surprised if a No. 2 seed awaits. After all, KU has beaten each Big 12 heavyweight and owns 15 Quadrant I and II wins, plus one of the nation's toughest non-conference schedules.
TCU
Best case: No. 7
Worst case: No. 10
Comment: The Horned Frogs went from the wrong end of the bubble to safely in the tournament with remarkable speed, and their victory over Florida will resonate with the committee.
Texas Tech
Best case: No. 3
Worst case: No. 6
Comment: The dynamics noted in our comment on BYU apply to the Red Raiders, as well: Their résumé without star forward JT Toppin will be scrutinized by the committee. It includes an impressive win at Iowa State and a concerning home loss to TCU, which seemingly places significant weight on their performance in Kansas City.
UCF
Best case: No. 10
Worst case: no bid
Comment: The Big 12's lone bubble team needs to show well in the conference tournament. Otherwise, the Knights will be at the mercy of bid stealers in other conferences.
Conference power rankings
1. Arizona (29-2/16-2)
2. Iowa State (25-6/12-6)
3. Houston (26-5/14-4)
4. Texas Tech (22-9/12-6)
5. Kansas (22-9/12-6)
6. TCU (21-10/11-7)
7. BYU (21-10/9-9)
8. UCF (20-10/9-9)
9. Cincinnati (17-14/9-9)
10. Baylor (16-15/6-12)
11. West Virginia (18-13/9-9)
12. Arizona State (16-15/7-11)
13. Colorado (17-14/7-11)
14. Oklahoma State (18-13/6-12)
15. Kansas State (12-19/3-15)
16. Utah (10-21/2-16)
