Pac-12 bowl projections: Oregon to the CFP, USC climbs to the Alamo and Cal sneaks in

Helpful reminders on the postseason selection process before we plunge into the latest Pac-12 bowl forecast:

The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will host the College Football Playoff semifinals, leaving the Pac-12 champion to participate in the Fiesta, Peach or Cotton bowls unless it qualifies for the CFP.

The Pac-12 is contractually tied to seven games this season: the New Year’s Six, Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence bowls. If there are more eligible teams than available spots, the conference will attempt to secure invitations to other bowls with vacancies.

The final fortnight of conference play carries plenty of unknowns across the Pac-12, but this much is clear: Washington would qualify for the College Football Playoff as an undefeated conference champion.

At 13-0, with wins over at least five ranked teams, the Huskies would not be shoved aside in favor of a one-loss champion from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 or SEC.

But what if they stumble and the last team standing in the Pac-12’s final season — whether it’s UW or Oregon — has one loss?

In that situation, the conference might need help ending its six-year playoff drought.

What scenario would clear a path for the one-loss Pac-12 winner?

What outcomes in other leagues would most benefit Washington or Oregon?

In our view, the conference needs:

Georgia to beat Alabama in the SEC championship. A victory by the Crimson Tide would leave Georgia as a one-loss threat to block the Pac-12 champ.

Texas to lose in the regular season or the Big 12 title game. If the Longhorns finish as a one-loss champ (with a victory at Alabama on their resume), they might receive priority over the Pac-12 winner.

Ohio State to beat Michigan and claim the Big Ten title. If the Wolverines win the conference, then Ohio State becomes a playoff threat as a one-loss division runner-up with a victory at Notre Dame and its immense brand value.

Other scenarios could become problematic for a one-loss Pac-12 champion, but those are atop the list as playoff selection day, Dec. 3, fast approaches.

To the projections ...

College Football Playoff/Sugar Bowl

Team: Oregon (9-1)

Home game remaining: Oregon State

Road game remaining: Arizona State

Comment: The Ducks received a résumé boost last week when the team they beat in Week 2, Texas Tech, upset No. 16 Kansas. If the Red Raiders (4-6) were to topple Texas in their finale, the benefits — to either Oregon or Washington — would be substantial.

New Year’s Six/Fiesta Bowl

Team: Washington (10-0)

Home game: Washington State

Road game: Oregon State

Comment: It’s essentially a one-game regular season for the Huskies — we see no possibility of a loss to Washington State in the Apple Cup. But beating the Beavers in Corvallis will be as difficult as beating Oregon in Seattle. In other words: coin flip.

Alamo Bowl

Team: USC (7-4)

Home game: UCLA

Road game: none

Comment: Given the options, the Alamo would happily invite the eight-win Trojans, who have never participated in the game. Also, the prospect of Lincoln Riley facing his former team, Oklahoma, or another old Big 12 nemesis, is a matchup the bowl could not refuse. But the Trojans need to handle UCLA.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team: Arizona (7-3)

Home game: Utah

Road game: Arizona State

Comment: The Hotline is currently projecting the Wildcats to win out and finish 9-3, with head-to-head victories over other Las Vegas Bowl candidates (Utah and Oregon State). Also, as we noted last week, the Arizona basketball team plays in Las Vegas the day of the bowl game. This pairing of school and bowl makes loads of sense.

Holiday Bowl

Team: Oregon State (8-2)

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Home game: Stanford, Washington

Road game: Oregon State

Comment: The list of teams that would satisfy Holiday executives is seemingly three deep: USC, Arizona and Oregon State. (We don’t view Oregon or Washington as possibilities.) Of that trio, the Beavers would be the only option available under our scenario.

Sun Bowl

Team: Utah (7-3)

Home game: Colorado

Road game: Arizona

Comment: The ceiling remains high for the Utes — but only if they win out. Otherwise, the late-season stumbles and fears among bowl officials that disappointed fans won’t travel (after back-to-back trips to the Rose Bowl) could prompt a plunge down the bowl lineup.

LA Bowl

Team: UCLA (6-4)

Home game: Cal

Road game: USC

Comment: At this point, we should mention the Pac-12 selection policy. The Alamo, Las Vegas and Holidays Bowls can invite Team Y over Team X as long as there is no more than a one-game difference in conference record. Starting with the Sun Bowl, teams are slotted based on conference record.

At-large bowl

Team: Cal (4-6)

Home games: none

Road games: Stanford, UCLA

Comment: Given the emergence of an effective offense in Berkeley and the recent struggles experienced by the Cardinal and Bruins, the Hotline currently projects Cal to win out and salvage a bowl berth. As an at-large team, the Bears would fill a vacancy in a game not affiliated with the Pac-12.

Non-qualifier

Team: Colorado (4-6)

Home games: none

Road games: Washington State, Utah

Comment: From 3-1 and the talk of college football at the end of September to 4-8 or 5-7 at the end of November would constitute one of the all-time fades. It would also reflect reality. The Buffaloes have a sub-.500 roster.

Non-qualifier

Team: Stanford (3-7)

Home games: Cal, Notre Dame

Road games: none

Comment: Who figured the last football game ever broadcast on the Pac-12 Networks (Nov. 25) would be Stanford’s finale against Notre Dame? Apparently, ESPN and Fox were not interested in the 3-7 hosts against the 7-3 visitors.

Non-qualifier

Team: Washington State (4-6)

Home game: Colorado

Road game: Washington

Comment: If the Cougars finish one game short of a bowl berth, the missed opportunity will be easy to spot: Their 10-7 loss to Stanford earlier this month was, more than any other game, the one that got away.

Ineligible

Team: Arizona State (3-7)

Home games: Oregon, Arizona

Road games: none

Comment: The announced resignation of unpopular athletic director Ray Anderson, the architect of the Herm Edwards fiasco, was essential to what will be a long climb to relevance under Kenny Dillingham. It helps provide the program with a fresh start.